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Why A 15 Million Barrel Per Day Cut Will Never Happen – OilPrice.com

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Tom Kool

Tom majored in International Business at Amsterdam’s Higher School of Economics, he is Oilprice.com’s Head of Operations

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Oil prices exploded on Thursday morning after US President Trump tweeted that he spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman about a potentially ‘huge’ output cut. 

According to Trump, the production cut from Saudi Arabia and Russia could be as high as 15 million bpd. 

The reality, however, is very different. 

Earlier this morning, Dmitry Peskov, spokesman of Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters that ‘’No one has launched any talks about a potential new oil-production deal to replace the OPEC+ format’’

Peskov assured reporters that no one is happy with current oil prices, but there are no high-level talks scheduled for either Thursday or Friday.  

It seems then that US pressure on Riyadh has convinced Saudi Arabia to reopen negotiations once again, but as I wrote before, neither of the parties will be willing to hand an easy victory to the others.

While both Russia and Saudi Arabia have started to hint that they are willing to talk about new cooperation, neither of them have proposed any specific new deal.

The situation changed this morning after Saudi Arabia’s official news agency reported that the Kingdom is calling for an urgent OPEC+ meeting with the aim of ‘’seeking a fair agreement’’. In other words, Saudi Arabia is willing to return to the negotiating table if every other nation is willing to cut production. 

According to Dow Jones, Riyadh is willing to reduce output to 9 million bpd, roughly what it produced in February before the OPEC+ deal fell apart. It also seems that the Kingdom will only be happy to cut production back to 9 million bpd if Moscow agrees with the 500,000 bpd production reduction it rejected at the previous OPEC+ meeting in Vienna.

Even if Saudi Arabia gets Russia to agree to the 500,000 bpd cut (which remains unlikely), this means that the markets will see a production reduction of only 3.5 million bpd – a far cry from the 10-15 million bpd that President Trump claimed in his tweet this morning.

Even if Saudi Arabia gets the UAE, Iraq and other non-OPEC members such as Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Norway, Mexico, and Azerbaijan to make additional output cuts, this will still not be enough to counter the coronavirus impact on the markets in the short term. All of this seems highly unlikely unless US producers will agree to force production cuts upon themselves (like Canadian producers did last year), something that US President Trump did not mention in his tweet.

Some smaller and larger US producers are happy to voluntarily cut back production, but oil majors such as ExxonMobil and Chevron have shown no interest in reducing production. Industry organizations such as the API and TXOGA also remain opposed to forced output cuts.

With global oil demand potentially crashing 30 million bpd in April/May, every producer is feeling the pain, but even a multilateral output cut that would involve all G20 producers isn’t likely to keep inventories from ballooning and prices from falling.

The oil rally caused by Trump’s tweet is likely to fade.

Update: 1.17PM CT – Russian Energy Minister Novak signaled that Russia, instead of cutting supply, will wait for demand to come back in the next couple of months.

By Tom Kool of Oilprice.com

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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