No one seems happy about politics these days. A new survey conducted by the American Enterprise Institute’s Survey Center on American Life, which I lead, found that less than half the American public felt optimistic about the country’s future. But there is a fairly stark divide among Americans on this question, with white Americans expressing far more pessimism about our country’s direction than members of other racial groups.
White evangelicals were the most pessimistic group we surveyed, but I found in follow-up analysis for FiveThirtyEight that there was a notable racial divide among Democrats as well.<a class="espn-footnote-link" data-footnote-id="1" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-are-white-liberals-so-pessimistic-about-politics/#fn-1" data-footnote-content="
Includes Democratic leaners. Black and white racial demographics includes only respondents who identified as non-Hispanic Black and white, respectively.
“>1 More than 6 in 10 Black Democrats (68 percent), and 62 percent of Hispanic Democrats said they were somewhat or very optimistic about the country’s future but white Democrats were much more divided — roughly as many said they felt optimistic (53 percent) as pessimistic (47 percent) about where the United States is headed.
Despite feeling somewhat more optimistic overall than Republicans about where the country is headed, Democrats — particularly those who are white and college educated — expressed far higher levels of politically based anxiety than Republicans. What’s odd about this development, though, is that over the past several decades American society has moved to the left.
A greater share of Americans identify as liberals today than at any point in the past 30 years or so, according to polling from Gallup, even if they are still significantly outnumbered by self-identified moderates and conservatives. On political issues from marijuana legalization to LGBTQ rights, the youngest generation of Americans consistently expresses more liberal positions than the ones preceding it. In fact, in an analysis of 50 years of trend data from the General Social Survey,<a class="espn-footnote-link" data-footnote-id="2" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-are-white-liberals-so-pessimistic-about-politics/#fn-2" data-footnote-content="
A long-running interview survey conducted regularly by the National Opinion Research Center.
“>2 sociologist Michael Hout found that the U.S. has primarily moved in a liberal direction. On more than half of the variables included in his analysis, Hout found public opinion moving in a liberal direction, while only 11 percent of measures showed attitudes becoming more conservative, a roughly five to one liberal advantage.
With many once-liberal positions being adopted into the mainstream, such as same-sex marriage, one might expect a feeling of hopefulness among left-leaning voters. So, why is the feeling of doom and gloom so pervasive among many white liberals?
One possible explanation may lie in how white liberals prioritize politics over other types of activities. Certainly, when it comes to religious participation — an activity strongly associated with stronger social connections and feelings of personal satisfaction — liberals have experienced a precipitous decline over the past few decades. According to Gallup data, only 35 percent of liberals belonged to a church or religious congregation in 2020, down from 56 percent in 1998.
Research by my colleague Ryan Streeter also finds that the most politically active among us are less engaged in civic and social activities. This group of people leans farther left than the general population. Streeter argues that for some on the left, politics has replaced religious activities and participation in local community efforts. “When our tribal needs are not met in familial and communal association, our ideological associations play a larger role in our lives — and nowhere is ideological community stronger than in politics,” he wrote. But political activism that doesn’t require interacting with others in person and building relationships does not offer the same social return on investment as other types of activism.
Another possible reason white liberals express political pessimism might have to do with their media diet. Compared to other Americans, white liberals spend much more time consuming political news. Interest in politics surged among left-leaning voters after former President Donald Trump’s election in 2016. And a study by the Pew Research Center found that the most liberal Americans, a group that is predominantly white, became much more attentive to politics in the wake of Trump’s victory — 67 percent report spending more time following politics.
Dan Hopkins, a political scientist and University of Pennsylvania and FiveThirtyEight contributor, has argued that the nationalization of politics has occurred because the media increasingly focuses on national debates. And more than other Democratic-leaning voters, white liberals’ news consumption is strongly skewed toward national politics. Almost four in 10 white liberals report that they follow news about national politics very closely, while only 20 percent say they follow local news as often.
One unfortunate side effect of the hyperfocus on national news is that white liberals sometimes embrace policies that are out-of-step with the communities the policies most affect. For instance, Black and Hispanic Democrats are more supportive of increasing spending on local policing than white Democrats are. In a recent poll by the Survey Center on American Life, 71 percent of white liberals said they support cutting funding from police departments and shifting it to social services instead. But Black Americans were more divided. Slightly more than half (53 percent) supported this policy, but 44 percent didn’t. This is not to say that Black and Hispanic Americans don’t think there are problems in how the police treat Black and brown people (they do), but their feelings on the issue are complex, and they often support an expanded police presence in their own neighborhoods.
Another reason for dispiritedness among white liberals may have to do with the political fights that they engage in. Take the 2020 Senate election in Kentucky. Democratic challenger Amy McGrath raised more than $96 million in her bid to oust then-Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, but in the end, the race was not close — McConnell won by nearly 20 percentage points. Beating McConnell, despite his tepid approval ratings, was always going to be a long shot, yet many liberals became emotionally invested in the race. Perhaps because of the time and energy spent following national politics, a lot of liberal fundraising flows to these high-profile national campaigns that ultimately have a low probability of success.
It’s not difficult to see how deeper investment in more winnable races might ultimately prove more rewarding.This underscores yet another reason why white left-leaning voters may be more pessimistic: How they engage in politics is different from other Americans.
Eitan Hersh, a political scientist at Tufts University, argued in 2020 that college-educated white Americans — a group that has trended leftward in recent years — tend to engage in politics very differently from Black and Hispanic Americans. In his research, Hersh found that “white people reported spending more time reading, talking, and thinking about politics than black people and Latinos did, but black people and Latinos were twice as likely as white respondents to say that at least some of the time they dedicate to politics is spent volunteering in organizations.”
Hersh suggested that white, college-educated, left-leaning voters are much more likely to engage in “political hobbyism” than in building coalitions to address social problems. These efforts often require sustained energy and investments, which for many left-leaning hobbyists is likely a less attractive way of participating in politics, though it may prove more effective in the long run.
Finally, consuming so much political news and information warps our perception of the world. Consider that white liberals are far more likely than other Americans to say that politics says a lot about the type of person someone is. A 2020 survey conducted by the Survey Center on American Life found that 75 percent of white liberals believed that a person’s politics defines who they are, higher than the public overall (64 percent).
This phenomenon may also help explain why the same survey found that white liberals (69 percent) were far more likely than white conservatives (33 percent) to say they would be upset if their child married someone whose views of Trump diverged from their own. Left-leaning singles who are looking for a relationship consistently express greater reservations about dating across the political divide as well.
White liberals are also more likely to argue about politics with strangers. In the same 2020 survey, close to half (44 percent) reported having had a political disagreement with someone they did not know well within the previous 12 months; Americans overall were less likely to quarrel about politics with strangers, with 34 percent reporting they had in the same timeframe. The problem with this, though, is that research shows that thinking the worst about our political opponents makes us miserable. A study published in 2019 said, “People who hold harsher views of their political opposites also tend to report that politics has negative impacts on their lives.”
The good news for left-leaning voters is that the higher rates of national media consumption may have been largely driven by interest in news about COVID-19 and Trump. With Trump no longer dominating the media landscape, and COVID-19 case numbers falling, the appetite for national news on the left is likely to change. In fact, a new study by the Knight Foundation shows that Democrats are already paying far less attention to national news today than they were just a few months earlier. Taking an interest in politics is an important part of being an engaged citizen, but for liberals, greater participation in local affairs and organizations may ultimately prove more personally rewarding.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
