We may be in for some rocky months, but a recession later this year could ultimately help jostle the economy back to a state of normalcy, the Bank of Nova Scotia’s chief economist said this week.
Economy
Why a recession might be just what the doctor ordered for Canada’s economy
Scotiabank chief economist says downturn could jostle economy into more normal, productive future
Speaking at the Canadian Fintech Summit in Toronto on April 19, Jean-François Perrault made the case that the past decade-plus has been anything but normal, in economic terms.
But the capital recycling that takes place during a recession — and Perrault, like a number of other leading economists, expects one this year — could reset things.
“(A recession) does create conditions for a different perspective on risk appetite, a different perspective on where capital comes from, and despite the fact that things are slowing down, to some extent, the greater diversification of where capital is going into the economy,” Perrault said. “And that, I think, ultimately is a very positive thing. It actually sets the stage for rebound after the recession.”
“But as those firms fail, as firms exit certain sectors, it creates opportunity for others or allows capital to move from one part of the economy where it’s less productive, to another part of the economy where’s it more productive,” he said.
In a more normalized environment, he sees the Bank of Canada leaving interest rates in the two to three per cent range, which would be in line with the central bank’s neutral rate range, which is meant to neither contribute to nor hinder economic growth. In this return to normal, Perrault also expects that risk appetite will grow.
To get to that two to three per cent range, the bank will have to reverse course and start cutting interest rates.
“We are at a point now where the conversation is much more about when are central banks going to cut rates and how low do they go once they start cutting,” Perrault said. “And this is where history is a little bit of a tricky thing. We think, for instance, the Bank of Canada and the Fed will start cutting rates early next year.”
The Bank of Canada expects it will reach its goal of bringing inflation down to its two per cent target from the March reading of 4.3 per cent by 2024. It’s not clear whether the central bank will cut rates in that same timeframe, but it appears to be what markets are pricing in and what economists are expecting. However, governor Tiff Macklem said it was too soon to be talking about rate cuts right now.
“Central banks are a little bit late to the game, so they tightened a little bit too slowly and as a result, they had to raise rates more than we anticipated,” Perrault said. “Now, they’re not going to go out there and say ‘We want to create a recession’ — of course not. But the reality is that when central banks historically tighten a lot, and there are a few episodes of this, they tend to trigger recessions.”
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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.
Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.
Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”
The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.
Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.
“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”
Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.
Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.
Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.
B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.
The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.
“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”
Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.
Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.
The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.
Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.
Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.
But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.
He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.
Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.
Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government has introduced a bill that would kick-start the province’s offshore wind industry without federal approval.
Natural Resources Minister Tory Rushton says amendments within a new omnibus bill introduced today will help ensure Nova Scotia meets its goal of launching a first call for offshore wind bids next year.
The province wants to offer project licences by 2030 to develop a total of five gigawatts of power from offshore wind.
Rushton says normally the province would wait for the federal government to adopt legislation establishing a wind industry off Canada’s East Coast, but that process has been “progressing slowly.”
Federal legislation that would enable the development of offshore wind farms in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador has passed through the first and second reading in the Senate, and is currently under consideration in committee.
Rushton says the Nova Scotia bill mirrors the federal legislation and would prevent the province’s offshore wind industry from being held up in Ottawa.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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