adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Real eState

Why CMHC Is Dead Wrong About Falling Real Estate Prices – The Motley Fool Canada

Published

 on


Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) made headlines last week when the organization told Canadians real estate prices will drop substantially over the next year.

CEO Evan Siddal warned Canadians the impact of COVID-19 on the real estate market could be drastic. CMHC is predicting a 9-18% drop in nationwide real estate prices, with some regions seeing even bigger weakness.

CMHC predicts the weak market will hit recent first-time buyers particularly hard, especially folks who put the minimum 5% down. Some of these unlucky people could be stuck in a negative equity situation, which makes it nearly impossible to sell. That’s the kind of anchor few people want.

The government-owned mortgage insurer backed up its bearish outlook by restricting lending standards on its insured loans. Changes include lowering debt service ratio caps, requiring a higher credit score, and stopping borrowed down payments.

But many critics say CMHC’s forecast for real estate prices is way too dire, an opinion this analyst agrees with wholeheartedly. Here’s why homeowners don’t have to fear a big drop in real estate prices.

Numbers don’t lie

Something interesting is happening across Canada. Despite one of the worst economic slowdowns in the history of our nation, housing prices are doing just fine.

The number of transactions plunged in April, and May’s numbers likely won’t be particularly strong when they’re released later on this month either. In fact, 56% fewer houses sold across Canada in April 2020 when compared to the same month last year.

And yet, the average house in Canada cost 5.6% more in April than it did the same month a year ago, which doesn’t seem to make any sense. Who’s even looking for a house when we’re all supposed to be hunkered down at home? Demand was so low it was almost off the charts.

Sellers responded in the most logical way possible. Virtually nobody listed their homes in April — and the sellers who did have houses for sale kept firm on their price.

Fast forward a couple of months until today and a very different picture is emerging. Encouraged by better than expected economic results, a desire to move after being cooped up for months, and dirt-cheap interest rates, the Canadian real estate market is exceeding all expectations.

Many realtors are reporting sales rebounding much faster than anticipated. This sure doesn’t look like a market that’s about to plunge.

CMHC’s competition

Remember, CMHC has two main competitors. Both Genworth MI Canada (TSX:MIC) and Canada Guaranty are privately held mortgage default providers. Traditionally, both these competitors have implemented changes to their underwriting process as soon as CMHC announces they’re introducing some new rule or change.

But something interesting has just happened. For the first time in history, these competitors won’t be following CMHC; they will keep their lending standards the same.

It’s an interesting situation. There are plenty of smart people at CMHC. But there are plenty of smart people working at Genworth and Canada Guaranty too. These companies have crunched the numbers and likely see this as a good opportunity to take market share from the leader.

In other words, they disagree with CMHC’s assessment on the market. Why doesn’t that get any headlines?

In fact, this might be a good time to buy Genworth shares. After all, it should benefit if bankers suddenly start sending more loans its way, especially if it doesn’t lead to a bunch of new defaults.

The bottom line on Canadian real estate prices

There are a couple of important reasons why I don’t agree with CMHC’s assessment of the real estate market. I see an economy that has been far more resilient than most predicted. That’s good for real estate prices. And the overall real estate market is showing signs of strength, not weakness.

Ultimately, I think CEO Evan Siddal and his team are panicking, just like many other investors have done during this downturn. So if you’re looking to buy a house soon, don’t fret. Real estate prices should be just fine.

The 10 Best Stocks to Buy This Month

Renowned Canadian investor Iain Butler just named 10 stocks for Canadians to buy TODAY. So if you’re tired of reading about other people getting rich in the stock market, this might be a good day for you.
Because Motley Fool Canada is offering a full 65% off the list price of their top stock-picking service, plus a complete membership fee back guarantee on what you pay for the service. Simply click here to discover how you can take advantage of this.

Click Here to Learn More Today!


Let’s block ads! (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Real eState

Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Real eState

Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

Published

 on

 

HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Real eState

Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

Published

 on

 

Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending