This is an excerpt from Second Opinion, a weekly roundup of health and medical science news emailed to subscribers every Saturday morning. If you haven’t subscribed yet, you can do that by clicking here.
Emerging research from around the world has sparked new fears about the declining protection COVID-19 vaccines provide over time against infection from the highly contagious delta variant, prompting some countries to move aggressively toward booster shots.
But the research these decisions are based on isn’t definitive, and CBC News spoke to several Canadian and international experts who raised concerns with the controversial move to roll out third doses widely before more data is available and while much of the world remains unvaccinated.
“We’re planning to hand out extra life-jackets to people who already have life-jackets, while we’re leaving other people to drown without a single life-jacket,” Dr. Mike Ryan, the World Health Organization’s top emergencies expert, said during a news conference Wednesday.
The WHO has recently called for a moratorium on boosters until at least the end of September. But despite the concerns raised by health officials and other experts, countries are forging ahead with plans for additional doses now — including parts of Canada.
WATCH | WHO calls for temporary pause on COVID-19 booster shots:
WHO calls for temporary halt on COVID-19 vaccine booster shots
3 days ago
Saying the priority should be on immunizing health-care workers in low- and middle-income countries, WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called for a temporary moratorium on COVID-19 vaccine boosters. 1:44
The U.S. went a massive step further this week by announcing third doses for all Americans beginning next month, to bolster immunity against the much more contagious delta variant amid early signs the effectiveness of the vaccines could be dropping.
Several Canadian provinces have also made the decision to break away from the pack and pre-empt upcoming guidance from the National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) on when booster shots may be needed and for whom.
Ontario will offer third doses to vulnerable populations, such as those in long-term care, First Nations elder care lodges and “higher risk” retirement homes, as well as for transplant recipients, certain cancer patients and other immunocompromised individuals.
Saskatchewan and Quebec previously announced plans to offer additional doses of mRNA vaccines — not because of waning immunity or the threat of delta, but for people who want to travel to countries that may not recognize mixed-vaccination status.
The tides have shifted rapidly on this issue over the past week and many Canadians may now be left wondering whether they’ll need an additional shot — and when they’ll get it.
WATCH | Ontario to offer 3rd COVID-19 shot to vulnerable groups:
Ontario to offer 3rd COVID-19 vaccine doses to vulnerable populations
3 days ago
The Ontario government has announced it will offer third doses of COVID-19 vaccines to the most vulnerable, including transplant patients and people in long-term care, but experts say there’s not yet evidence they’re needed in the wider population. 1:59
Vaccine effectiveness data ‘all over the place’
What prompted the sudden shift in favour of widespread booster shots?
The answer is largely based on conflicting emerging data from highly vaccinated countries around the world that signal a potential drop in immune protection in the population over time amid surges in cases driven by the delta variant.
But the data is anything but clearcut.
“The vaccine effectiveness data that we’re getting are all over the place,” said Deepta Bhattacharya, an immunologist at the University of Arizona.
“It’s really hard to know what to make of all this, in part because all of these things are being estimated outside of the context of a clinical trial where you have a lot of control.… Now it’s a mess.”
In a country where delta is the dominant strain, Israel’s Ministry of Health released data late last month that implied two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was just 39 per cent effective against COVID-19 infection, a drop from 95 per cent seen in clinical trials and 64 per cent in real-world data earlier this year.
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett receives a booster shot of COVID-19 vaccine at Meir Medical Center in the central Israeli city of Kfar Saba, on Aug. 20, after the country began administering them to people aged 40 and over amid a spike in infections. (Jack Guez/AFP/Getty Images)
But experts have raised concerns about the quality of Israel’s data, suggesting it should be taken with caution before being used to justify the widespread use of boosters.
“Much of the Israel data can be explained by the fact that with delta waltzing onto the scene, those who have been vaccinated longest are also those more likely to experience severe illness than others — in other words, the elderly,” said Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
“It is confusing because in some analyses, age is corrected for, but in others, not all.”
While it is reasonable to expect there is some waning protection from vaccines, especially with the spread of delta, Hanage said it’s not to the extent that’s being “bandied about” from the Israeli data and isn’t necessarily seen in younger age groups.
Dvir Aran, a biomedical data scientist at Technion — Israel Institute of Technology in Haifa, told CBC News he’s “very skeptical” about the Israel estimates.
“The vaccine effectiveness that was calculated by the Israeli Ministry of Health is from a mix of early and late vaccinated individuals,” he said, pointing to a lack of adjustment for confounders, or other factors, in the data. “So it’s not clear what it even means.”
Because of the different vaccines, rollout strategies and populations in each country, Hanage said it’s reasonable to suspect the Israel data is skewed — especially because one would expect to see the dramatic results replicated elsewhere.
“If you are relying on them as the grounds for a huge decision like boosters, that’s not as strong a foundation as you’d like.”
WATCH | Official explains why 3rd booster shot is being recommended in the U.S.:
U.S. NIH director explains why it’s recommending a third booster shot
2 days ago
In an exclusive interview, U.S. National Institutes of Health Director, Dr. Francis Collins tells Power & Politics a third vaccine dose is needed to help fight the spike in delta variant cases in the U.S. 5:06
Conflicting research raises more questions
Israel’s vaccine effectiveness estimates are also significantly lower than research released in May from the U.K., which found they were 88 per cent effective against symptomatic disease from delta.
A similar study from Scotland published in The Lancet medical journal in June also found the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was still 79 per cent effective.
And Canadian researchers released data last month that found two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine were 87 per cent effective against delta, similar to that of the alpha variant, at 89 per cent, and the beta variant, at 84 per cent.
Adding to the confusion, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published three new studies this week that were used by federal officials as justification for mRNA boosters for all Americans in the weeks ahead.
One study analyzed thousands of nursing homes across the U.S. between March and August — covering a time frame both before delta emerged and when it became a dominant strain — and found vaccine effectiveness at preventing infections dropped from 75 to 53 per cent.
Another study focused on New York state between early May and late July, as delta rose to more than three-quarters of new cases, finding a decline in vaccine effectiveness from 91 per cent to 79 per cent.
A third CDC-published study looked at severity of disease across the U.S., a key figure missing from other research, and found mRNA vaccines were overall 90 per cent effective at preventing hospitalizations — and only slightly lower in the immunocompromised.
What approach should Canada take with boosters?
Given the conflicting, contradictory and outright confusing nature of the emerging data on vaccine effectiveness in the past few weeks, the question remains: What Canada should do when it comes to boosters in the midst of a fourth, delta-driven wave?
Canadian researchers at the University Health Network (UHN) in Toronto recently published a correspondence in the New England Journal of Medicine that showed evidence of “significantly higher immunogenicity” in transplant patients after a third dose.
And a recent preprint study from UHN analyzed 119 Ontario long-term care residents and 78 staff over four months, finding much lower levels of neutralizing antibodies in the elderly patients — suggesting a possible need for a third dose in that group as well.
WATCH | Why this doctor says it’s too soon to talk boosters:
Doctors says it’s too soon to talk about booster shots
16 hours ago
Infectious diseases physician Dr. Isaac Bogoch, tells Power & Politics, it’s too premature to talk about providing vaccine booster shots for the general population. 3:26
“It’s very clear that older adults, and in particular frail older adults, don’t mount the same immune response that younger adults do,” said Dr. Allison McGeer, a lead study author and a medical microbiologist and infectious disease specialist at Mount Sinai Hospital.
“And while that’s not unexpected, it does raise the issue of whether those levels are now low enough to reduce vaccine efficacy.”
Given that research, and the smorgasbord of other data from around the world, Ontario’s move to offer third doses to older, vulnerable groups makes sense for the rest of Canada.
But experts say we shouldn’t extend boosters to the general public just yet.
“It becomes a slippery slope,” said Dr. Zain Chagla, an infectious diseases physician at St. Joseph’s Healthcare Hamilton and an associate professor at McMaster University.
“For sure, in the immunocompromised, long-term care residents and elderly, the stakes are high enough this is good to accept. But for regular, healthy folks — is this really going to lead to gains, or simply lower mild illnesses in otherwise healthy people, or nothing at all?”
A lab technician works with a syringe and vials at the Uganda Virus Research Institute on Dec. 18, 2020. The institute handles much of the country’s COVID-19 testing and case numbers have recently spiked there with just over one per cent of the population vaccinated. (Lily Martin/CBC)
Bhattacharya says at the end of the day, we need to look at where a dose will make the most impact — especially as COVID-19 continues to ravage other countries with extremely low vaccine coverage.
“There is not a shred of doubt that the bang for the buck in getting an unvaccinated person vaccinated — wherever they are in the world — is far greater than giving someone a booster shot,” he said
“Even within the wide range of possibilities as to how much a booster shot may help, it’s definitely not going to be as beneficial as giving it to someone who’s never had it. There’s no question about that.”
TORONTO – Will Taylor Swift bring chaos or do we all need to calm down?
It’s a question many Torontonians are asking this week as the city braces for the arrival of Swifties, the massive fan base of one of the world’s biggest pop stars.
Hundreds of thousands are expected to descend on the downtown core for the singer’s six concerts which kick off Thursday at the Rogers Centre and run until Nov. 23.
And while their arrival will be a boon to tourism dollars — the city estimates more than $282 million in economic impact — some worry it could worsen Toronto’s gridlock by clogging streets that already come to a standstill during rush hour.
Swift’s shows are set to collide with sports events at the nearby Scotiabank Arena, including a Raptors game on Friday and a Leafs game on Saturday.
Some residents and local businesses have already adjusted their plans to avoid the area and its planned road closures.
Aahil Dayani says he and some friends intended to throw a birthday bash for one of their pals until they realized it would overlap with the concerts.
“Something as simple as getting together and having dinner is now thrown out the window,” he said.
Dayani says the group rescheduled the gathering for after Swift leaves town. In the meantime, he plans to hunker down at his Toronto residence.
“Her coming into town has kind of changed up my social life,” he added.
“We’re pretty much just not doing anything.”
Max Sinclair, chief executive and founder of A.I. technology firm Ecomtent, suggested his employees avoid the company’s downtown offices on concert days, saying he doesn’t see the point in forcing people to endure potential traffic jams.
“It’s going to be less productive for us, and it’s going to be just a pain for everyone, so it’s easier to avoid it,” Sinclair said.
“We’re a hybrid company, so we can be flexible. It just makes sense.”
Swift’s concerts are the latest pop culture moment to draw attention to Toronto’s notoriously disastrous daily commute.
In June, One Direction singer Niall Horan uploaded a social media video of himself walking through traffic to reach the venue for his concert.
“Traffic’s too bad in Toronto, so we’re walking to the venue,” he wrote in the post.
Toronto Transit Commission spokesperson Stuart Green says the public agency has been working for more than a year on plans to ease the pressure of so many Swifties in one confined area.
“We are preparing for something that would be akin to maybe the Beatles coming in the ‘60s,” he said.
Dozens of buses and streetcars have been added to transit routes around the stadium, and the TTC has consulted the city on potential emergency scenarios.
Green will be part of a command centre operated by the City of Toronto and staffed by Toronto police leaders, emergency services and others who have handled massive gatherings including the Raptors’ NBA championship parade in 2019.
“There may be some who will say we’re over-preparing, and that’s fair,” Green said.
“But we know based on what’s happened in other places, better to be over-prepared than under-prepared.”
Metrolinx, the agency for Ontario’s GO Transit system, has also added extra trips and extended hours in some regions to accommodate fans looking to travel home.
A day before Swift’s first performance, the city began clearing out tents belonging to homeless people near the venue. The city said two people were offered space in a shelter.
“As the area around Rogers Centre is expected to receive a high volume of foot traffic in the coming days, this area has been prioritized for outreach work to ensure the safety of individuals in encampments, other residents, businesses and visitors — as is standard for large-scale events,” city spokesperson Russell Baker said in a statement.
Homeless advocate Diana Chan McNally questioned whether money and optics were behind the measure.
“People (in the area) are already in close proximity to concerts, sports games, and other events that generate massive amounts of traffic — that’s nothing new,” she said in a statement.
“If people were offered and willingly accepted a shelter space, free of coercion, I support that fully — that’s how it should happen.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Hundreds of Taylor Swift fans lined up outside the gates of Toronto’s Rogers Centre Wednesday, with hopes of snagging some of the pop star’s merchandise on the eve of the first of her six sold-out shows in the city.
Swift is slated to perform at the venue from Thursday to Saturday, and the following week from Nov. 21 to Nov. 23, with concert merchandise available for sale on some non-show days.
Swifties were all smiles as they left the merch shop, their arms full of sweaters and posters bearing pictures of the star and her Eras Tour logo.
Among them was Zoe Haronitis, 22, who said she waited in line for about two hours to get $300 worth of merchandise, including some apparel for her friends.
Haronitis endured the autumn cold and the hefty price tag even though she hasn’t secured a concert ticket. She said she’s hunting down a resale ticket and plans to spend up to $600.
“I haven’t really budgeted anything,” Haronitis said. “I don’t care how much money I spent. That was kind of my mindset.”
The megastar’s merchandise costs up to $115 for a sweater, and $30 for tote bags and other accessories.
Rachel Renwick, 28, also waited a couple of hours in line for merchandise, but only spent about $70 after learning that a coveted blue sweater and a crewneck had been snatched up by other eager fans before she got to the shop. She had been prepared to spend much more, she said.
“The two prized items sold out. I think a lot more damage would have been done,” Renwick said, adding she’s still determined to buy a sweater at a later date.
Renwick estimated she’s spent about $500 in total on “all-things Eras Tour,” including her concert outfit and merchandise.
The long queue for Swift merch is just a snapshot of what the city will see in the coming days. It’s estimated that up to 500,000 visitors from outside Toronto will be in town during the concert period.
Tens of thousands more are also expected to attend Taylgate’24, an unofficial Swiftie fan event scheduled to be held at the nearby Metro Toronto Convention Centre.
Meanwhile, Destination Toronto has said it anticipates the economic impact of the Eras Tour could grow to $282 million as the money continues to circulate.
But for fans like Haronitis, the experience in Toronto comes down to the Swiftie community. Knowing that Swift is going to be in the city for six shows and seeing hundreds gather just for merchandise is “awesome,” she said.
Even though Haronitis hasn’t officially bought her ticket yet, she said she’s excited to see the megastar.
“It’s literally incredible.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Via Rail is asking for a judicial review on the reasons why Canadian National Railway Co. has imposed speed restrictions on its new passenger trains.
The Crown corporation says it is seeking the review from the Federal Court after many attempts at dialogue with the company did not yield valid reasoning for the change.
It says the restrictions imposed last month are causing daily delays on Via Rail’s Québec City-Windsor corridor, affecting thousands of passengers and damaging Via Rail’s reputation with travellers.
CN says in a statement that it imposed the restrictions at rail crossings given the industry’s experience and known risks associated with similar trains.
The company says Via has asked the courts to weigh in even though Via has agreed to buy the equipment needed to permanently fix the issues.
Via said in October that no incidents at level crossings have been reported in the two years since it put 16 Siemens Venture trains into operation.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
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