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Why drought on the Prairies is making your steak more expensive – CBC.ca

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Ask John Wildenborg if he thinks Canadians will be paying more for steak during future barbecue seasons, and the owner of Calgary specialty butcher shop Master Meats doesn’t hesitate.

“Prices are definitely going to go higher, no ifs, ands or buts about it,” he said.

“It keeps me up at night, actually, thinking about coming into the summer and where prices are going to be. It’s not a good situation.”

Beef — whether in the form of a juicy burger or a classic tenderloin steak — is a mainstay of many Canadians’ diets. Its popularity is the reason why consumer demand for beef has historically remained strong, even through periods of economic downturn when Canadians have less money in their wallets.

But the business of beef is changing, in large part due to consecutive years of severe drought across North America’s main cattle-producing regions.

From parched southern Alberta to water-scarce east Texas, ranchers have been downsizing their herds due to a lack of grass for grazing. The resulting shortfall in cattle supply is reducing overall beef production and helping to push retail beef prices higher.

“A 10-ounce New Yorker right now … would cost around $20. Three years ago that was maybe a $15 steak,” Wildenborg said.

“And this is usually the slow time of year for beef, but wholesale prices haven’t dropped off at all since Christmas. I’m paying 40 per cent higher than I was last year at this time.”

Food in general, as consumers know, has increased in price over the last three years due to the COVID-19 pandemic and an overall rising cost of living. But while inflation is starting to moderate in a number of food categories, the drought factor means beef prices are not.

“When you talk to producers, whether it’s in the Canadian provinces or key cattle-producing regions of the United States, many producers will tell you they’ve had to experience two ‘hundred-year droughts’ back-to-back over the course of 10 years,” said Lance Zimmerman, a Kansas-based senior beef analyst with Rabobank.

“Add to that a global pandemic and all the challenges that go along with that, and we’ve had a 10- to 15-year period that’s been particularly challenging for a lot of cattle producers. It has led to a lot of liquidation.”

Liquidation is when a rancher makes the decision to sell off a greater proportion of heifers and cows for slaughter rather than retaining them to grow his or her herd. Ranchers may decide to do this because of a variety of factors, including high input costs, limited labour availability and high interest rates, as well as the challenges associated with long-term drought.

In Canada, the size of the national cattle herd has been declining for years, a trend that continued last year amid a punishing drought in Western Canada. This country’s beef cow inventory fell in 2023 by 1.5 per cent to 3.66 million animals — the lowest level since 1989.

South of the border, U.S. Department of Agriculture figures show an even more dramatic story. There, the national cattle herd has been contracting for five years, reaching 28.2 million animals in 2023. That’s the smallest number of cattle the U.S. has seen since 1961.

Fewer cattle means less beef production, which translates to fewer exports as well as higher prices at the retail counter.

Cows covered in snow are pictured.
Snow-covered cattle stand in a pasture near Didsbury, Alta., on Oct. 23, 2023. It could be a long, lean winter in cattle country, as drought-ravaged western Canadian ranchers struggle to secure enough feed to get their livestock through the cold months. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press)

“Unfortunately for the consumer, those prices are going to ratchet higher,” said Zimmerman.

“On a U.S. basis, retail beef prices are currently about $8 US a pound, and by our estimation, over the next several years we can expect another dollar-and-a-half increase, quite easily.”

In southeast Alberta, near the tiny community of Jenner, rancher Brad Osadczuk shipped some of his cattle east to Saskatchewan last summer to graze on rented pastureland. It was the only way he could feed them because his own grassland was entirely depleted by drought.

“This past year was the worst year for drought in adult life and I was born in 1971,” Osadczuk said. “Our native prairie just never turned green.”

While Osadczuk was able to avoid reducing his herd size, he said many ranchers in his area have been choosing not to replace cows after they sell them for at least the past five years.

“We’ve been mitigating drought for a long time,” he said.

“So we’re kind of at a point in this part of Alberta where our herds are pretty small already.”

Even if the current drought cycle were to end this year, cattle numbers can’t rebound overnight. That’s why experts say the new era of higher beef prices is here to stay, at least for a while.

“This isn’t a short-term thing,” Osadczuk said.

“For a female calf that is born today, it’s four years before that female can have its own calf that can end up in the food chain.”

Anne Wasko, a Saskatchewan-based market analyst with Gateway Livestock, said North American cattle and beef supplies will remain tight for several years, and much is riding on Mother Nature.

“We’re going to be looking at smaller supplies in ’24, ’25 and possibly out as far as ’26,” she said.

“We truly need moisture, first and foremost, to turn this boat around.”

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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