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Why illiquid investments are all the rage and what you need to know about their risks – Financial Post

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You need two ingredients if you want to earn a return above a risk-free investment such as a GIC or government bond: risk and time.

There are four types of investment risk: interest rate and credit (or default) risk relate to the fixed-income market; equity (or ownership) risk is the one investors are most familiar with (i.e., stocks can go down); and the final one, liquidity, which by contrast is poorly understand and worth a deeper dive.

In simple terms, liquidity risk involves sacrificing the ability to sell an investment when you want (daily, weekly or monthly) in exchange for a higher expected return. If you have two identical securities, one that trades daily and the other that can’t be sold for five years, you’d only buy the latter if it had much higher potential.

Sacrificing liquidity is a valuable investment strategy since not all your holdings need to be easily tradeable.

I first learned this from my former partner at Phillips, Hager & North, Tony Gage, who was Canada’s dean of bonds in the 1990s. Gage loved to own “off the run” Government of Canada bonds as opposed to benchmark bonds that were actively traded by brokers. The off-the-runs still had a government guarantee, but offered a slightly higher yield because they weren’t as easy to trade in large amounts — less liquid, in other words. He wasn’t taking additional interest rate or credit risk, but instead sacrificed liquidity for extra return.

Risk versus the reward

How much extra return is required to justify an investment depends on the type of security and how illiquid it is. Small-cap stocks trade erratically so investors expect to buy at a lower price-to-earnings multiple and thus achieve a higher return. High-yield bonds are similar.

Even higher risk premiums are required when buying private companies that don’t trade on an exchange. This is generally done through professionally managed funds that have fixed terms of 10 years or more. In other words, investors have a limited ability to get out (without penalty) prior to the fund’s maturity. Funds may also hold mortgages, loans, real estate, infrastructure and more esoteric investments such as farmland, timber and catastrophe bonds.

Beware the mismatch

The growth of private equity and debt has been a defining feature of this market cycle. Institutions have steadily increased their holdings and even individual investors are getting into the act. Indeed, the proliferation of mutual fund-like products has led to concerns about a growing mismatch: liquid funds investing in illiquid assets.

Freddie Lait, managing partner of U.K.-based Latitude Investment Management LP, put it this way: “Illiquidity is a risk which has been mispriced over the past 10 years as quantitative easing programs have flooded financial systems with cash, and regulators have allowed funds to run liquidity mismatches in their portfolio.”

The potential downside of this mismatch was on full display last year in Lait’s hometown of London. The most intriguing case involved a high-profile manager, Neil Woodford, who, as a headline in The Guardian put it, went from “Bright star to black hole.”

Woodford managed a number of large funds and went through a period of poor performance. But he couldn’t accommodate the withdrawals when investors turned against him because he held too many unlisted companies. To protect existing holders, the funds were closed to redemptions, or “gated,” in hopes the funds could be wound down in an orderly manner.

Such situations are rare when the world is awash with capital and markets are strong, but we’ll see more gates close in the coming years as more mismatched products come to market.

How to benefit from illiquidity

If investors want to take advantage of the fourth risk and avoid a mismatch, they can’t go halfway. These investments need to be truly illiquid. Investing in private companies, real estate, infrastructure, loans and mortgages requires you to provide the fund manager with long-term capital that matches the task. You don’t want to invest alongside others who can leave at a moment’s notice and force the sale of assets at an inopportune time.

It’s also important to target asset types that you’re comfortable owning for a long time and pick a manager who will be around for a decade or more. That’s because the time component of the risk plus time formula is locked in. You’re going to have the investment in your portfolio for a long time.

Financial Post

Tom Bradley is chair and chief investment officer at Steadyhand Investment Funds, a company that offers individual investors low-fee investment funds and clear-cut advice. He can be reached at tbradley@steadyhand.com.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite tops 24,000 points for first time, U.S. markets also rise Thursday

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index closed above 24,000 for the first time Thursday as strength in base metals and other sectors outweighed losses in energy, while U.S. markets also rose and the S&P 500 notched another record as well.

“Another day, another record,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.

“The path of least resistance continues to be higher.”

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 127.95 points at 24,033.83.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 260.36 points at 42,175.11. The S&P 500 index was up 23.11 points at 5,745.37, while the Nasdaq composite was up 108.09 points at 18,190.29.

Markets continue to be optimistic about an economic soft landing, said Kourkafas, after the U.S. Federal Reserve last week announced an outsized cut to its key interest rate following months of speculation about when it would start easing policy.

Economic data Thursday added to the story that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite higher rates, said Kourkafas.

The U.S. economy grew at a three-per-cent annual rate in the second quarter, one report said, picking up from the first quarter of the year. Another report showed fewer U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week.

The data shows “the economy remains on strong footing while the Fed is pivoting now in a decisive way towards an easier policy,” said Kourkafas.

The Fed’s decisive move gave investors more reason to believe that a soft landing is still the “base case scenario,” he said, “and likely reduces the downside risks for a recession by having the Fed moving too late or falling behind the curve.”

North of the border, the TSX usually gets a boost from Wall St. strength, said Kourkafas, but on Thursday the index also reflected some optimism of its own as the Bank of Canada has already cut rates three times to address weakening in the economy.

“The Bank of Canada likely now will be emboldened by the Fed,” he said.

“They didn’t want to move too far ahead of the Fed, and now that the Fed moved in a bigger-than-expected way, that provides more room for the Bank of Canada to cut as aggressively as needed to support the economy, given that inflation is within the target range.”

The TSX has also been benefiting from strength in materials after China’s central bank announced several measures meant to support the company’s economy, said Kourkafas.

However, energy stocks dragged on the Canadian index as oil prices fell Thursday following a report that Saudi Arabia was preparing to abandon its unofficial US$100-per-barrel price target for crude as it prepares to increase its output.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.22 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was down US$2.02 at US$67.67 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down seven cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$10.20 at US$2,694.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 15 cents at US$4.64 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stocks also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal sector, while U.S. stock markets were also higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was 143.00 points at 24,048.88.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 174.22 points at 42,088.97. The S&P 500 index was up 10.23 points at 5,732.49, while the Nasdaq composite was up 30.02 points at 18,112.23.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.23 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was down US$1.68 at US$68.01 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down six cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$4.40 at US$2,689.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 13 cents at US$4.62 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Investment

Tempted to switch to an online-only bank? Know the perks and drawbacks

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Switching to an online-only bank more than a decade ago was just another way Jessica Morgan was trying to save money at the time as a new grad.

“Saving money was the main motivator,” Morgan, now a financial educator and founder of Canadianbudget.ca, recalled.

“After graduating, you no longer qualify for student rates where you might get free banking and I didn’t want to go back to paying fees for giving the bank my money to hold.”

Digital lenders have grown in popularity in recent years, with more players popping up in the sector and traditional banks beefing up their online offerings. But some Canadians may still be hesitant to bank with a financial firm that doesn’t have physical branches where you can talk to an employee face-to-face.

Natasha Macmillan, director of everyday banking at Ratehub.ca, says some of that hesitancy to switch to an online lender is loyalty.

“There’s a large portion of Canadians who have had the same bank account for many years … they’re just hesitant to switch because it’s what they know.”

Tedious paperwork to switch banks can also discourage many Canadians from making the move despite the ease of opening online-only bank accounts, Macmillan added.

“There’s that aspect of you still need to sit down, do your research and then pick that online-only bank,” she said.

Data security concerns have also sowed seeds of doubt among many who are contemplating the switch, and prefer to continue to work with traditional banks with long-established reputations, Macmillan said.

Morgan said she often hears concerns from her clients — “What if I need help? Is this bank safe to use?” or more logistical questions, such as having access to an ATM or getting certified cheques.

One of the only major snags she personally recalls running into with her online lender was when she was purchasing a home.

“I needed to get a certified cheque, like, right away if I was going to put in an offer,” Morgan said. “You can get a certified cheque but it takes three days or so. They courier it to you.” She ended up going to her husband’s traditional bank to get day-of service.

Most online-only banks tend to offer banking products, such as savings accounts, with higher interest rates compared with traditional banks. Many also offer access to cash through any bank ATM without charge.

“Digital banks have generally a lower cost structure than a traditional bank and those savings will be passed on to the customer,” said Mahima Poddar, group head of personal banking at EQ Bank. For example, EQ offers a high-interest chequing account with no fees on everyday banking and unlimited transactions.

But customers should be aware they can’t deposit cash into their account and they can only withdraw bills, not coins.

“We don’t offer depositing of cash, but all of our research has shown that the use of cash is really diminishing,” Poddar said. “There are very few reasons why you need to urgently deposit.”

Customers also have to get used to doing all their banking by phone or through the company’s website or app.

Poddar added she thinks Canadians are more open to change, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, which accelerated the need for better online banking services.

While trust in traditional institutions plays a strong role in choosing a bank, Poddar said EQ has the same level of protection and is governed by the same regulators as the big six banks in the country.

Lisa Brandt, 61, switched to online-only Manulife Bank more than five years ago. She says she has benefited from the move and has saved a lot of money over time on various banking fees.

“It puts me in the driver’s seat,” she said.

However, she did run into an issue once with depositing a cheque after she sold her home.

“If you’re going to deposit a couple hundred thousand dollars from a house sale, you’ll have to courier (the cheque) to them,” she said.

“It’s not quite as simple as walking into a branch and saying, ‘Give me my money.'”

While many online-only banks have been growing their consumer banking product offerings, traditional banks tend to have more financial product options, not only for individuals but also for small businesses.

“What we have heard from some Canadians is while they might be moving their chequing, savings and GIC accounts to those (online-only) spaces, they’re still maintaining a mortgage with the big players,” Macmillan said.

It’s not about moving all assets to one bank but weighing options on an individual basis, such as picking a bank with the lowest fee on a chequing account but moving investments to another bank for a better return, she explained.

“We’re starting to see that flexibility where people are shopping around for the best opportunity that can give them the most bang for their buck,” Macmillan said.

She added it is important for people to identify why they’re thinking of switching and find an online-only bank that aligns with their goals.

“It’s finding that happy medium where you do feel trust and security, that lower cost and fees and also the convenience and accessibility,” Macmillan said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

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