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Why Invest in Stocks When Bond Yields Are Higher?

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In the fall of 1981 the yield on 30 year U.S. Treasury bonds hit 15%.

Fifteen percent! For 30 years!

One million dollars invested at that time would have been paying out $150,000 a year in interest for 3 decades.1 Can you imagine how much demand there would be for bonds yielding 15% for that long today?

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The funny thing is when bond yields hit these levels in 1981 no one wanted to buy them.

Here are some quotes from the New York Times when this happened:

Long-term Treasury bond yields rose briefly to 15 percent yesterday, but even that record yield for a 30-year bond backed by the United States Government was not enough to attract much investor buying.

”It’s a vicious circle,” one trader said, ”since the lack of investor demand deepens the gloom among the dealers, while dealers’ forecasts of higher rates in the future encourage investors to stay out of the market.”

That was the bond buying opportunity of a lifetime. Those are the kinds of yields where you can go to the beach and live off the interest…and no one wanted them.

The problem with playing Monday morning quarterback with something like this is the investments that look like generational buying opportunities with the benefit of hindsight often seem like the riskiest bets in the moment.

There were many reasons to shun bonds in the early-1980s. Inflation was so high that real returns weren’t nearly as juicy as those abnormally high nominal yields.

No one knew at the time that rates and inflation were peaking and about to fall for four decades. Investors were dealing with nearly two decades of rapidly rising rates and prices.

Plus, bonds were a dreadful investment for some time by that point.

From 1946-1980, long-term government bonds lost an astonishing 60% of their value after accounting for inflation.2

It’s no wonder investors were treating bonds like they were nuclear waste.

Investors assumed inflation would stick around forever.3

One would assume investors would all want to own bonds and shun riskier investments when yields are so high but that’s not always the case.

The 1987 Black Monday crash is a perfect example.

The reasons for that crash are still a little murky to this day but one of the reasons for the stock sell-off was a swift rise in interest rates:

There was a lot more to it than that but interest rates going from 7% to start the year to more than 10% right before the crash certainly had a bearing on the risk appetite of investors.

The question is: Why didn’t all investors simply move their portfolio to government bonds that were yielding 10%?

You could have locked up your capital for 10 years in high-quality, default-free bonds yielding double-digits instead of watching your money crash more than 20% in a single day in the stock market.

It’s probably because the S&P 500 was up more than 40% in 1987 before that fateful day in October. Not to mention the fact that the S&P 500 was up more than 17% per year in the 8 years leading up to 1987 before that 40%+ gain occurred.

In that context, even 10% per year guaranteed from the U.S. government doesn’t sound all that appealing.

Which brings us to today.

The bond yields of 2023 are minuscule compared to the 10-15% you could earn in the 1980s at times. But the nearly 5% you can now earn in Treasury bills that mature in less than a year’s time looks pretty darn good compared to the yields of the past 10-15 years.

Many market prognosticators are beginning to wonder if going from a world of 0% rates to a world with 5% yields will cause a massive shift in investor allocations from stocks to bonds.

It would surprise me if there weren’t a ton of investors who took advantage of this situation, especially retirees and those with short-to-intermediate-term saving needs.

For years the low interest rate environment was pushing people further and further out on the risk curve to earn anything approaching a respectable yield. For the first time in a long time, you can earn that respectable yield on relatively safe, short-term government bonds.

This is a good thing for savers.

But I’m not so sure investors en masse are going to all of the sudden put their entire portfolio into T-bills.

We as a species like risk. We like to gamble and take chances.

That’s why we go to casinos and bet on sports and play the lottery and invest in options, crypto, start-ups, individual stocks and a whole bunch of other stuff that comes with the risk of loss.

The stock market was up 5% in the first two weeks of 2023. Most investors won’t be patient enough to wait to earn 5% over the course of an entire year.

Michael and I discussed how interest rates could change the allocation preferences of investors and much more on this week’s Animal Spirits video:

Subscribe to The Compound so you never miss an episode.

ANNOUNCEMENT — Future Proof registration is now live. This was hands down the best conference I’ve ever been to and we’re going to make the second iteration even better. Register here.

Now here’s what I’ve been reading lately:

1Right now you can get roughly $36,000 a year in interest for a $1 million investment in long-dated U.S. government bonds.

2The nominal returns were actually okay in this environment at around 2% per year. It’s just that inflation was running at nearly 4.5% during this time so real returns were underwater.

3The 30 year return for the S&P 500 from 1981-2010 was 10.6% per year. So owning that long-term bond in 1981 outperformed the stock market by a wide margin. I’m cherry-picking here but it’s still pretty wild.

 

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FP Answers: What is a 'behavioural edge' in investing and how does it affect returns? – Financial Post

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Temperament is the unsung hero of investing success

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By Julie Cazzin with Felix Narhi

Q: What is a “behavioural edge” in investing? How does it potentially enhance returns? How can an investor develop it? — Giovanni

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FP Answers: Giovanni, the term behavioural edge is just another way of saying “temperament,” which refers to the habitual way a person behaves in each situation. For example, one person may be easygoing and relaxed while another is more likely to be impatient and assertive.

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Temperament is the unsung hero of investing success. Gaining insight about our innate emotional temperament and learning how to work with it gives investors an edge.

The common misconception is that you need a high level of intelligence to be a successful investor. No doubt, that can be helpful, but based on many years in the industry, I’ve seen it is not always the most important differentiator.

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Once someone has at least an average level of intelligence, it is temperament that often provides the investing edge in leading to better returns over the long term. “Investing is not a business where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with the 130 IQ,” famed investor Warren Buffett has pointed out.

Having the right temperament can potentially enhance investment returns in several ways. An investor who is very reactive to external events is likely to fare poorly over the long term because, quite simply, the world is full of uncertainty and always will be. Markets are highly reactive, abetted by algorithmic trading and automatic rebalancing by exchange-traded funds. Individual investors should not be.

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Research shows that investors who trade frequently or try to time the market underperform. On the other hand, those investors who can remain calm and patient throughout market cycles do better because markets historically trend upwards. Hands down, being calm, cool and collected is the right temperament for an investor to have.

The concept of “homo economicus” — or economic man — describes a hypothetical person who consistently makes rational decisions. In real life, our decisions are coloured by our formative experiences, moods, external circumstances, what we ate for lunch and a host of other factors. These influences drive our behaviours, but they often operate below conscious awareness (even artificial-intelligence apps “hallucinate”).

Given that behaviour is some combination of cognitive and emotional inputs, an investor can create an edge by developing a disciplined investment process that overrides temperament, especially during highly volatile periods.

The term “active patience” means being clear about your investment principles and what you are looking for, and practicing active patience until the right opportunity arises.

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In contrast, regular patience is making an investment decision and sticking with it no matter what, even if it was the wrong decision. The latter approach is unlikely to bring financial success, which is the major goal of investing.

Active patience is what Buffett would call the “fat pitch,” which occurs when the market (occasionally) presents a very attractive opportunity. It is easy to spot a great opportunity and take full advantage of it when an investor has clear principles on what they are looking for.

Can we change our temperament? Recent studies show that personality traits and moods are subject to change, sometimes within the hour, so temperament may not be as fixed as we’ve been led to believe.

Becoming a better investor starts with self-knowledge — and lots of practice. The behavioural traits associated with good investment outcomes are patience, discipline, emotional control and risk awareness. It so happens, these qualities lead to good life outcomes, too. A calm temperament is the bedrock of making sound investment decisions.

Every investor must determine for themselves how to achieve greater equanimity and there is no shortage of books, videos and TikTok tutorials on that evergreen topic. I would also add the importance of staying humble.

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  1. Adding equities risk to a retirement portfolio will increase the holder's uneasiness about his money.

    FP Answers: Is it time to increase risk in my retirement portfolio?

  2. Two of the world's most famous value investors, Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham, right.

    FP Answers: What exactly is value investing? A beginner’s guide

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In investing, as in life, the learning never stops. Staying open to new information and having the courage to challenge our own and others’ beliefs and habitual behaviours are the keys to future success.

Felix Narhi is chief investment officer and portfolio manager at PenderFund Capital Management Ltd.

Bookmark our website and support our journalism: Don’t miss the business news you need to know — add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here.

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Lenders Rally After India’s Central Bank Eases Investment Curbs – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — Indian banks and shadow lenders rose Thursday after the country’s central bank eased capital requirements for a unique type of investment, a move that may free up more funds for loans.

The gains came after the Reserve Bank of India issued Wednesday modified rules on lenders’ required provisions for exposure to alternative investment funds, or AIFs, that invest in the lenders’ borrowers. Under the new policy, a lender needs to set aside capital only for the amount the AIF invested in the debtor company, and not the entire investment of the lender in the AIF.

Shares of Piramal Enterprises Ltd., which reported among the biggest provisions for such investments, closed 1% higher after rising as much as 6% during the day. A gauge of financial services firms climbed 1%, the most since March 1.

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Lenders led the rally in the broader market, with the NSE Nifty 50 Index registering its best day since beginning of the month.

The RBI’s softening stance came after industry players raised concerns over clarity and uniformity after it announced in December restrictions on lenders’ exposure to AIFs that hold stakes in their borrowers. The latest move will likely help firms including Piramal, HDFC Bank Ltd. and IIFL Finance Ltd. reverse some of their relevant provisions made previously, according to analysts at Citigroup Inc. and Jefferies Financial Group Inc.

Read more: India’s Crackdown on Financial Risks Puts Industry on Watch

“Select private banks and NBFCs like Piramal had provided for their entire AIF exposure during 3Q and could see some write-backs in 4Q if they decide to reverse the excess provision,” Jefferies analyst Bhaskar Basu wrote in a note.

Regulators introduced a flurry of new rules last year to prevent a buildup of financial stress at a time when India’s economy remained resilient in the face of rising interest rates, slowing global growth and unabated geopolitical tensions.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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What is Islamic halal investment and why is it on the rise?

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The global Islamic halal economy is set to reach a market value of $7.7 trillion by 2025, more than double the $3.2 trillion it reached in 2015 and significantly higher than the $5.7 trillion it was valued at less than three years ago in 2021, according to industry experts.

A report by the General Council for Islamic Banks and Financial Institutions revealed last year that the global Islamic funds market has grown by more than 300 percent over the past decade, with nearly $200bn now under management globally.

The statistics depict a rise in both demand for halal – or “sharia compliant” – investments and opportunities.

Investing is permitted under Islam, but certain aspects of investment practice – such as charging or paying interest – are not. This has traditionally meant a lack of opportunities for Muslim savers and investors in the past.

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What is halal investment?

Halal is an Arabic term meaning “permitted” and stipulating that:

  • Transactions cannot involve “riba” (interest).
  • Investments must not be made in “haram” (unlawful) assets or commodities such as pork products, alcohol or military equipment, among others.
  • Investments cannot be made based on “gharar”, which has been described as “highly uncertain transactions or transactions that run contrary to the idea of certainty and transparency in business”.

“Halal investment is basically managing your money and finances in line with your faith,” Omar Shaikh, director of Islamic Finance Council UK (UKIFC), told Al Jazeera. “Muslims believe that earning money in a way which is halal is better than earning money (even if that is more) in a way that is harmful to society and against the morals of the religion.”

Umar Munshi, co-founder and managing director of Islamic finance group Ethis, said sharia compliance is key, but institutions and investors looking for ethical investments need to go even further to ensure a business is completely ethical.

“The actions of a business must not have a negative impact on society or the environment,” Munshi told Al Jazeera. “So it’s not only compliant, but refraining from having a negative impact. Investing in a tobacco company, for example, may be sharia compliant, but it’s not good for society.”

How does halal investment work?

One example of halal investment is Islamic business financing, which works using new models of profit-sharing, sharia-compliant insurance and sukuk, an Islamic financial certificate that represents a share of ownership.

Unlike with conventional bonds – a form of IOU that investors can buy in order to receive interest payments – sukuk investors receive partial ownership of a business and then receive profit payments, which are generated over time. These payments are made instead of interest in order to ensure sharia compliancy.

“Islamic finance as a sector is barely 30 years old, with the past 15 years seeing the most development,” Shaikh from UKIFC said. “It takes time to educate and create awareness and as this has happened, more banks have focused on servicing the demand for halal investing. This in turn helps to create more products, which then creates more demand.”

Stock markets used to be the traditional modes of investment for many [Marcin Nowak/Anadolu via Getty Images]

A Goldman Sachs report published in December 2022 estimated that by 2075, five of the world’s 10 largest economies – India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt – will have Muslim populations amounting to more than 850 million people.

As the population rises, so does its demand for financial products. According to the State of the Global Islamic Economy Report 2023, published by research group DinarStandard, some $25.9bn was invested into sharia-compliant investments in the financial year 2022-23, marking a 128 percent year-on-year growth.

“In general, it [halal investment] is on the rise. People are a lot more educated and more aware of how their dollar impacts the socioeconomic landscape globally,” said Siddiq Farid, co-founder of SmartCrowd, a real estate investment platform based in Dubai.

“They are a lot more cautious, too, hence leading to more ethical investing, which halal investing is a big component of. It’s on the rise, particularly around the younger generation. The millennials, they are a lot more aware socially. People realise exactly where their money is going and how it’s being used.”

An increase in opportunities for halal investing and their ease of access are also cited as reasons driving the rise in demand.

Israel’s war on Gaza and its impact

More recently, the rise in demand for halal investments has received an additional boost as consumers boycott brands seen as supporting Israel and its war on Gaza.

The war, which has seen more than 32,000 Palestinians killed by Israeli attacks in Gaza, has “adjusted” the mindset of these investors, Farid said.

“Halal investment has been increasing steadily and it has accelerated further in the past six months, mostly among millennials and people under 40,” he said.

“But in the past, it’s more of these people just looking for something halal. As long as it’s not haram, it’s fine. Now, there’s more awareness of not only halal, but halal aligned with values and faith. All these boycott movements have got people much more aware that something may be halal, but you might not necessarily want to use it, be associated with it or invest in it.”

bds
The Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement has made many people consider where their money goes before they spend or invest it, say experts [Martin Pope/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images]

How has technology contributed to the rise of halal investing?

FinTech Magazine reported in December last year that while Muslims make up nearly a quarter of the world’s population, barely one percent of financial assets qualify as sharia compliant. This is set to change, say experts, with the arrival of “fintech” – financial technology that can make investing much more accessible for ordinary consumers and individual investors.

“Muslims are generally not as well educated when it comes to investing, and this is partly due to a lack of available options for them as Muslims. Even basic information pertaining to sharia-compliant investments is often not available to most of the Muslim population,” said Ibrahim Khan, co-founder of the online financial platform Islamic Finance Guru, in an interview with FinTech Magazine.

However, the rise of social media has contributed to an increased awareness and significant growth in sharia-compliant finance. In addition, fintech has made halal investment options, which are often much more convenient and easy to use with a smartphone or laptop, more accessible.

Consultancy group McKinsey & Company published research in January this year showing that “revenues in the fintech industry are expected to grow almost three times faster than those in the traditional banking sector between 2023 and 2028”.

“Your phone is often physically the closest thing to you. Fintechs are able to start from this paradigm and build solutions that are efficient and enhance transparency and choice for retail customers. This is where a lot of the action is at. Many banks are now creating fintech-based solutions or acquiring fintech players,” said UKIFC’s Shaikh.

Munshi added the selling point for fintechs is the age of the target audience.

“The younger generation is more open to investing online,” said Munshi, whose company operates an online platform and community for alternative finance and investment opportunities.

The same research by McKinsey & Company showed that the fintech industry raised record capital in the second half of the 2010s. Venture capital funding grew from $19.4bn in 2015 to $33.3bn in 2020, a 17 percent year-over-year increase.

As of July 2023, publicly traded fintech companies had a combined market capitalisation of $550bn, double that of 2019, the research said.

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