The current housing market has defied expectations of a downturn in real estate prices caused by this year’s surging mortgage rates. Instead, prices and demand have remained strong, confounding experts and stymying many first-time homebuyers.
The reason? “Blame the boomers,” according to one Wall Street economist.
It may seem paradoxical, acknowledged Barclays senior economist Jonathan Millar in a Thursday research report. After all, many would assume that an aging population would require fewer homes, but that’s actually not the case, he noted.
Baby boomers are actually creating more households, putting pressure on housing demand and keeping prices aloft despite the highest mortgage rates in more than 20 years. Boomers are creating more households partly because they’re separating due to divorce or death, Millar noted.
“[A] given person is generally more likely to become the head of a household as he or she ages, with the highest likelihood occurring beyond retirement age,” Millar wrote. “Hence, as an increasing share of the population shifts into older age groups, more and more households tend to be formed.”
While boomers will eventually require fewer homes as they get even older, that might not happen for quite some time, he added. The youngest boomers are 59 years old, which means there are millions of boomers still in the workforce who will be retiring over the next several years, adding to more household creation.
“Despite notable increases in [housing] demand from the 35-44 cohort, almost all of additional demand is explained by the aging population — with significant increases in households in the 65-74 and 75+ groups,” Millar noted.
To be sure, other experts have pointed to other issues impacting the real estate market, including a lack of inventory. Because of this year’s surge in mortgage rates, fewer homeowners are listing their properties, fearing that they would have to buy a new home at a rate of 7% or higher — more than double the typical rate during the pandemic. Slim inventory means that buyers are competing for a limited pool of housing, driving prices upward.
What is “household formation”?
The formation of households is one of the engines that drives the housing market. It occurs when a person who has been living in a home with other people moves out on their own, becoming the head of a new household.
That often happens when young adults move out of their parents’ home or into their first apartments after college, and the data shows that there’s a jump in household formation at age 25. But the trend then gradually rises until it peaks around retirement age and older, Millar noted.
“Among other things, this reflects the parenthood phase during prime age (25-54), the separation of adult children from the household, divorce and the heightened possibility of eventually losing a life partner to death,” he wrote.
Will housing prices come down?
At the same time, there’s not enough available housing in the U.S. to supply the demand from people looking to move into their own homes, he noted. That’s creating pressure on prices and partly explains this year’s gravity-defying prices.
The median sales price for existing homes rose 1.9% in July to $406,700 compared with a year earlier, although prices dipped slightly in the beginning of the year, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. That’s an increase of 57% since January 2020, prior to the pandemic, when the median sales price for existing homes was $266,300.
Millar predicts that demand for housing is likely to continue given the demographics of aging boomers. And while new housing construction could help provide more supply, and could help blunt the rise in prices, real estate could still inch upward in price, he noted.
Prices are likely to “decelerate slowly,” reaching increases of about 2.5%, he added. But if the Fed cuts rates in 2024, that could spark more buying, because cheaper financing could spur more people to jump into the market.
“With overall housing shortages likely to prevail, we think risks to our forecasts for both housing prices and rents are to the upside, especially as the Fed enters its cutting cycle in late 2024,” Millar concluded.
Of course, not everyone agrees with Millar’s rationale, with Capital Economics forecasting that housing demand may be weak in the next few months.
“With affordability stretched and the economy slowing, housing-market activity is expected to remain weak over the coming quarters,” Imogen Pattison, assistant economist with Capital Economics, said in a new report. “While we expect house prices to lose some of their recent momentum, the worst of the correction appears to have passed and we don’t expect further sustained declines.”
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
MONTREAL – The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers says Montreal-area home sales rose 9.3 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, with levels slightly higher than the historical average for this time of year.
The association says home sales in the region totalled 2,991 for the month, up from 2,737 in August 2023.
The median price for all housing types was up year-over-year, led by a six per cent increase for the price of a plex at $763,000 last month.
The median price for a single-family home rose 5.2 per cent to $590,000 and the median price for a condominium rose 4.4 per cent to $407,100.
QPAREB market analysis director Charles Brant says the strength of the Montreal resale market contrasts with declines in many other Canadian cities struggling with higher levels of household debt, lower savings and diminishing purchasing power.
Active listings for August jumped 18 per cent compared with a year earlier to 17,200, while new listings rose 1.7 per cent to 4,840.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
In the quest to find cities where renters can enjoy the best of all worlds, a recent study analyzed 24 metrics across three key categories—Housing & Economy, Quality of Life, and Community. The study ranked the 100 largest cities in Canada to determine which ones offer the most to their renters.
Here are the top 10 cities that emerged as the best for renters in 2024:
St. John’s, NL
St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, stand out as the top city for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its vibrant cultural scene, stunning natural beauty, and welcoming community, St. John’s offers an exceptional quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing, a robust economy, and low unemployment rates, making it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching living experience. Its rich history, picturesque harbour, and dynamic arts scene further enhance its appeal, ensuring that renters can enjoy both comfort and excitement in this charming coastal city.
Sherbrooke, QC
Sherbrooke, Quebec, emerges as a leading city for renters in Canada for 2024, offering a blend of affordability and quality of life. Nestled in the heart of the Eastern Townships, Sherbrooke is known for its picturesque landscapes, vibrant cultural scene, and strong community spirit. The city provides affordable rental options, low living costs, and a thriving local economy, making it an ideal destination for those seeking both comfort and economic stability. With its rich history, numerous parks, and dynamic arts and education sectors, Sherbrooke presents an inviting environment for renters looking for a well-rounded lifestyle.
Québec City, QC
Québec City, the capital of Quebec, stands out as a premier destination for renters in Canada for 2024. Known for its rich history, stunning architecture, and vibrant cultural heritage, this city offers an exceptional quality of life. Renters benefit from affordable housing, excellent public services, and a robust economy. The city’s charming streets, historic sites, and diverse culinary scene provide a unique living experience. With top-notch education institutions, numerous parks, and a strong sense of community, Québec City is an ideal choice for those seeking a dynamic and fulfilling lifestyle.
Trois-Rivières, QC
Trois-Rivières, nestled between Montreal and Quebec City, emerges as a top choice for renters in Canada. This historic city, known for its picturesque riverside views and rich cultural scene, offers an appealing blend of affordability and quality of life. Renters in Trois-Rivières enjoy reasonable housing costs, a low unemployment rate, and a vibrant community atmosphere. The city’s well-preserved historic sites, bustling arts community, and excellent educational institutions make it an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Saguenay, QC
Saguenay, located in the stunning Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region of Quebec, is a prime destination for renters seeking affordable living amidst breathtaking natural beauty. Known for its picturesque fjords and vibrant cultural scene, Saguenay offers residents a high quality of life with lower housing costs compared to major urban centers. The city boasts a strong sense of community, excellent recreational opportunities, and a growing economy. For those looking to combine affordability with a rich cultural and natural environment, Saguenay stands out as an ideal choice.
Granby, QC
Granby, nestled in the heart of Quebec’s Eastern Townships, offers renters a delightful blend of small-town charm and ample opportunities. Known for its beautiful parks, vibrant cultural scene, and family-friendly environment, Granby provides an exceptional quality of life. The city’s affordable housing market and strong sense of community make it an attractive option for those seeking a peaceful yet dynamic place to live. With its renowned zoo, bustling downtown, and numerous outdoor activities, Granby is a hidden gem that caters to a diverse range of lifestyles.
Fredericton, NB
Fredericton, the capital city of New Brunswick, offers renters a harmonious blend of historical charm and modern amenities. Known for its vibrant arts scene, beautiful riverfront, and welcoming community, Fredericton provides an excellent quality of life. The city boasts affordable housing options, scenic parks, and a strong educational presence with institutions like the University of New Brunswick. Its rich cultural heritage, coupled with a thriving local economy, makes Fredericton an attractive destination for those seeking a balanced and fulfilling lifestyle.
Saint John, NB
Saint John, New Brunswick’s largest city, is a coastal gem known for its stunning waterfront and rich heritage. Nestled on the Bay of Fundy, it offers renters an affordable cost of living with a unique blend of historic architecture and modern conveniences. The city’s vibrant uptown area is bustling with shops, restaurants, and cultural attractions, while its scenic parks and outdoor spaces provide ample opportunities for recreation. Saint John’s strong sense of community and economic growth make it an inviting place for those looking to enjoy both urban and natural beauty.
Saint-Hyacinthe, QC
Saint-Hyacinthe, located in the Montérégie region of Quebec, is a vibrant city known for its strong agricultural roots and innovative spirit. Often referred to as the “Agricultural Technopolis,” it is home to numerous research centers and educational institutions. Renters in Saint-Hyacinthe benefit from a high quality of life with access to excellent local amenities, including parks, cultural events, and a thriving local food scene. The city’s affordable housing and close-knit community atmosphere make it an attractive option for those seeking a balanced and enriching lifestyle.
Lévis, QC
Lévis, located on the southern shore of the St. Lawrence River across from Quebec City, offers a unique blend of historical charm and modern conveniences. Known for its picturesque views and well-preserved heritage sites, Lévis is a city where history meets contemporary living. Residents enjoy a high quality of life with excellent public services, green spaces, and cultural activities. The city’s affordable housing options and strong sense of community make it a desirable place for renters looking for both tranquility and easy access to urban amenities.
This category looked at factors such as average rent, housing costs, rental availability, and unemployment rates. Québec stood out with 10 cities ranking at the top, demonstrating strong economic stability and affordable housing options, which are critical for renters looking for cost-effective living conditions.
Québec again led the pack in this category, with five cities in the top 10. Ontario followed closely with three cities. British Columbia excelled in walkability, with four cities achieving the highest walk scores, while Caledon topped the list for its extensive green spaces. These factors contribute significantly to the overall quality of life, making these cities attractive for renters.
Victoria, BC, emerged as the leader in this category due to its rich array of restaurants, museums, and educational institutions, offering a vibrant community life. St. John’s, NL, and Vancouver, BC, also ranked highly. Québec City, QC, and Lévis, QC, scored the highest in life satisfaction, reflecting a strong sense of community and well-being. Additionally, Saskatoon, SK, and Oshawa, ON, were noted for having residents with lower stress levels.
For a comprehensive view of the rankings and detailed interactive visuals, you can visit the full study by Point2Homes.
While no city can provide a perfect living experience for every renter, the cities highlighted in this study come remarkably close by excelling in key areas such as housing affordability, quality of life, and community engagement. These findings offer valuable insights for renters seeking the best places to live in Canada in 2024.
