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Why Russia’s pullout from Ukraine grain deal will impact prices in Canada



Russia’s recent pullout from a deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain will likely impact prices in Canada.

“Both Russia and Ukraine are very large grain producers,” Opher Baron, a professor of operations management at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management, told Tuesday. “Any long-lasting shortage of grains export from either would change the price of grain, as it is a global commodity.”

On Saturday, Russia announced that it was immediately pulling out of a deal that allowed ships to export grain from Ukrainian ports.

Brokered in July by the United Nations and Turkey, the short-lived deal saw more than nine million tons of grain leave Ukraine on 397 ships. Other food stuffs and fertilizer were also allowed safe passage via a humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea. According to the UN, the grain agreement helped bring down global food prices by about 15 per cent, after they rose sharply following Russia’s February 2022 invasion.

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“It affects everything because it’s about 15 per cent of all calories consumed on Earth,” Dalhousie University food security expert Sylvain Charlebois told “You’re basically seeing a global breadbasket being impacted by geopolitics and a huge conflict.”

The UN, Ukraine and Turkey plan to continue the program, and 12 vessels were reportedly able to leave Ukraine as of Monday. It remains to be seen if or when Russia will forcefully reimpose its earlier blockade on Ukrainian ports.

“I think it’s really an unfortunate turn that the pact has ended,” Charlebois, who is a professor and the senior director of Dalhousie’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab, said. “It doesn’t bode well for the future. It’s going to be extremely difficult for Ukraine to mobilize anything, which will discourage farmers to grow anything, which will eventually impact wheat prices around the world. And that’s kind of what we’re starting to see the last couple of days, unfortunately.”

According to Statistics Canada, the world’s largest exporters of wheat in 2021 were Russia, the U.S., Australia, Canada and Ukraine; that’s since been upended by war and sanctions.

In the wake of Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a June 29 Statistics Canada report showed prices of bread, pasta and cereal were up from more than 12 per cent to nearly 20, while total stocks of Canadian wheat were down by almost 40 per cent. Food manufacturers meanwhile were paying almost 75 per cent more for wheat in April 2022 than they were a year prior. Canada produces most of the wheat it consumes, which still leaves plenty available for export.

Higher domestic production in 2022 over 2021, and the re-opening of Ukrainian ports for wheat exports in late July, saw prices dip in October Statistics Canada analysis reported. Prices however began climbing again following news of Russia’s pullout from the Ukraine grain deal.

Wheat futures rose to over US$9 a bushel on Tuesday, up from almost US$8.30 on Friday, according to Nasdaq. On Nov. 1, 2021, prices were under US$8.

“When prices move globally, so are the prices locally,” Baron from the University of Toronto explained. “Luckily, given we are a very large player in the grain market ourselves and that supply chain cost in a local market are lower than in a global one, the relative price increase end consumers may face is not large.”

Charlebois says that although Canadian may have to pay higher prices in places like the bakery due to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, because we produce so much wheat ourselves, Canada won’t fall victim to the kind of global food insecurity that could affect places like Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, which rely heavily on imports.

“With geopolitics, the problem is that there’s lots of uncertainty and uncertainty will come at a price,” Charlebois added. “So baked into the US$9 per bushel right now there’s uncertainty, and uncertainty will force companies to pay more for grains, no matter where you are around the world.”

With files from CNN and the Associated Press

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COVID-19 benefits helped economy rebound, but post-payment verification lacking: AG



Canada’s auditor general says COVID-19 benefits were delivered quickly and helped mitigate economic suffering, however, the federal government hasn’t done enough to recover overpayments.

In a new report looking into the federal government’s delivery of pandemic benefits, Karen Hogan said the programs provided relief to workers and employers affected by the pandemic and helped the economy rebound.

At the same time, the auditor general says the Canada Revenue Agency and Employment and Social Development Canada have not followed up by verifying payments.

Hogan estimates $4.6 billion was paid to people who were not eligible, while another $27.4 billion in payments to individuals and businesses should be further investigated.

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“I am concerned about the lack of rigour on post-payment verifications and collection activities,” Hogan said in a news release.

The audit found that efforts to recover overpayments have been limited, with the Canada Revenue Agency collecting $2.3 billion through voluntary repayments.

Pre-payment controls were also lacking, though the report said the federal government made some changes to those controls for individual benefits.

However, the CRA made few changes to improve prepayment controls for businesses to mitigate risks of overpayment.

Hogan also flagged that there was a lack of sufficient data to assess the effectiveness of the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy program.

Although the subsidy did go to businesses in industries hardest hit by the pandemic, the report said the effect of the subsidy on business resilience is unclear because the agency collected limited data from businesses.

The auditor general has made a set of recommendations to the government to improve the collection of overpayments and to fix data gaps relating to businesses.

Government organizations reviewed in the audit say they have accepted the recommendations, though only partially accepted a recommendation related to recuperating overpayments.

The federal government said it would prioritize which to pursue by weighing the resources necessary with the amount owed.

“It would not be cost effective nor in keeping with international and industry best practices to pursue 100 per cent of all potentially ineligible claims,” the response said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 6, 2022.

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Liberals pledge $15 million to remove Ukraine mines on anniversary of Ottawa Treaty



Liberals pledge $15 million to remove Ukraine mines on anniversary of Ottawa Treaty

The Trudeau government is pledging to spend $15 million to remove mines in Ukraine.

Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly says the funding is meant to make the country safer after Russia has laid hundreds of the indiscriminate weapons.

Human Rights Watch says Ukrainian forces have also been laying anti-tank mines across the country.

Joly made the announcement on Monday to commemorate the 25th anniversary of the Ottawa Treaty, which bans landmines in most countries.

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Ottawa has so far provided Canadian-made bomb suits to help protect Ukrainian deminers and has plans to help fund remote-control systems to clear large areas such as farmlands.

Last month, Canada unveiled funding to remove both landmines and cluster bombs from parts of Southeast Asia that remain inaccessible decades after conflicts like the Vietnam War.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 6, 2022.

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B.C.’s Julia Levy is Canada’s first trans woman Rhodes Scholar



British Columbia’s newest Rhodes Scholar will pursue a master’s degree in computational chemistry, but she says it’s also an “incredible opportunity” as a trans woman to give back to her community.

University of Victoria graduate Julia Levy said she was “blown away” when she learned she was among 11 Canadians selected for this year’s Rhodes Scholarship, one of the world’s oldest and most prestigious such awards.

Levy, 24, will head to Oxford University in England next October for the fully funded scholarship, a prize she said carries a special meaning because she is the country’s first trans woman Rhodes Scholar.

“I feel I am very, very proud being the first trans woman in Canada (to become a Rhodes Scholar),” said Levy, who made the transition from he to she three years ago.

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While the transition was a tough journey, Levy said she is aware of the many advantages she’s had.

“I think it’s really interesting to note that I am privileged in literally every other way, like my parents being supportive of my transition. I have always had financial stability and I grew up in a good part of Vancouver … maybe that’s the advantages that you need to equal out the trans part of it,” said Levy.

Levy, who graduated from the University of Victoria with a chemistry major and a minor in visual arts, described the scholarship as an “incredible opportunity and a gift,” equipping her with more knowledge and power to give back to the trans community.

“I feel my experiences of being trans and the ways that I have had to navigate the world being trans … has given me a lot of empathy for people in crisis and people who have difficulties in their lives,” said Levy.

“I know what it is to be at the bottom in some ways and my interest in harm reduction and trans care really all comes from that place of knowing what it’s like and wanting to reach out and help out where that’s possible.”

Levy is also a scientist, artist, activist, programmer, friend and daughter, she said.

“There are many parts of me that are equally important to who I am.”

University of Victoria chemistry professor Jeremy Wulff supervised Levy and said she was “destined for greatness,” bringing insights to projects that led to their success.

“I’m always excited when my students are recognized with awards and fellowships, but the Rhodes award is at a whole other level,” he said. “Julia is in excellent company amongst this group, and it’s absolutely where she belongs.”

Levy said magic can happen when you mix computation with chemistry.

In her second year at the University of Victoria, she found some classmates were struggling to picture molecules in their heads while doing peer teaching.

To help them visualize complex molecules, Levy created an augmented-reality app.

The app is a QR code in the workbook and allows the learner to see the molecule on their phone in three dimensions.

“You can work it with your phone and spin it around and zoom in and out,” said Levy.

She also worked as a technician with the university’s Vancouver Island Drug-Checking Project, a drop-in service where people can bring street drugs in for chemical analysis.

Levy said the experience used her chemistry skills in a “practical and socially active way” to help more people.

“It’s an excellent example of the social use of chemistry,” said Levy.

Levy, who was travelling in Germany during the interview, said she looks forward to being surrounded by the Rhodes community and “being challenged and pushed to new heights.”

“I hope I bring what makes me unique to Oxford, and that I am able to find a group of people, both personally and professionally, that celebrate that uniqueness,” said Levy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 6, 2022.

This story was produced with the financial assistance of the Meta and Canadian Press News Fellowship.

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