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Why some Canadian governments might be thinking about early elections — and why that might be a bad idea – CBC.ca

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Even in the best of times, there’s always an element of political risk when a minority government calls a snap election. That risk is exponentially greater in the midst of a pandemic — and yet, some governments across the country may be tempted.

But not one of them has been bold enough to pull the plug yet.

The temptation is understandable. Across the country, parties in power are seeing a surge in support over their handling of the pandemic.

A bump in the polls is often the root cause of early elections. Minority governments tend to end for one of two reasons: a popular governing party believes it can turn a minority into a majority, or the opposition believes an unpopular governing party is ripe for replacement.

Fixed election date laws in most provinces prevent majority governments from cashing in on newfound support. While these laws can be bypassed easily, voter revulsion usually has kept majority governments from trying it.

But these polling surges could make some minority governments think about rolling the dice — unless COVID-19 makes them think twice.

Speculation about the possibility of a late summer election in New Brunswick was feverish just recently. Premier Blaine Higgs has presided over a fragile minority government since 2018. The most recent big survey, conducted by Narrative Research in May, put his Progressive Conservatives 18 percentage points ahead of the opposition Liberals. That’s quite a swing from his party’s six-point deficit in the popular vote in the last election.

But this week, Higgs voiced some doubts about holding an election in the short term. While he didn’t rule one out entirely, he said it wasn’t his preference and he acknowledged “there’s mixed feelings, because many people would say, ‘Is there a need? Is there a bigger concern around the health risks?'”

Asked this week about the possibility of an early election, British Columbia Premier John Horgan said that a vote is “mandated by next October. So, there’s an opportunity this fall. There’s an opportunity next spring. There’s an opportunity next summer.”

It’s the first inkling Horgan has given that an election is on his mind.

His statement was denounced by B.C. Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson. It also drew fire from B.C. Green Leader Adam Olsen, with whom Horgan’s New Democrats have an agreement to keep their government running.

With only a year left before the clock runs out, B.C.’s minority government has been remarkably stable. Most minority governments fall within two years. But Horgan’s poll numbers are up significantly. The most recent survey by EKOS Research puts the gap between the NDP and the Liberals at 17 points — enough to deliver the widest margin of victory of any B.C. election since 2001.

B.C. Premier John Horgan has presided over a minority government since 2017, but for the first time polls suggest he has a wide lead over his opposition rivals. (Chad Hipolito / Canadian Press)

In Newfoundland and Labrador, an election must be held within a year of a new premier being sworn in. The governing Liberals will name their new leader next month — at which point the clock starts ticking.

But not all minority governments are eyeing the exits. There has been little talk of an early election in Prince Edward Island, where one poll suggests Dennis King’s PC government enjoys a 32-point lead over the opposition Greens and Liberals.

In Ottawa, the federal Liberals are still leading in the polls by a significant margin. It is unclear what impact the WE contract controversy will have on Liberal support in the longer term; in the meantime, the opposition Conservatives appear content with extracting their pound of flesh from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Bill Morneau.

Despite the Liberals’ sudden vulnerability, the Conservatives have not threatened to bring down the government (though the Bloc Québécois said on Friday it would try to defeat the government in September if Trudeau and Morneau do not resign). But because of that vulnerability, it appears unlikely the Liberals will take the risk of calling an election on their own — something which seemed plausible (if risky) just a few weeks ago.

COVID-19 makes no exceptions for democracy

There’s one very good reason why minority governments — even popular ones — ought to think twice before kicking off an election campaign right now: the global pandemic that has killed over 600,000 people, including nearly 9,000 Canadians.

After dropping to an average of some 270 cases per day in early July from 1,800 or so at its peak in May, the country is now averaging about 500 new cases per day. There have been spikes in Alberta and Saskatchewan and rising trend lines in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia.

Canadians are increasingly worried about pandemic. The weekly tracking survey from Léger shows the percentage of Canadians afraid of contracting the disease increased 10 points over the last few weeks to 61 per cent — the highest level since April. The same poll found that 82 per cent of respondents believe there will be a second wave of infections.

Polls suggest Canadians’ concerns over COVID-19 are rising again as the number of new cases increases. (Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press)

That would make an early election call perilous. The rising caseload — along with the cautionary tale offered by the uncontrolled spread of the disease in the United States — means the political blowback against any party seen as responsible for forcing a dangerous early election could be ruinous.

Risking people’s lives for the sake of political gain is something most voters would find appalling. It also would make a four-week campaign unpredictable. The COVID-19 situation in Canada a month ago looked much different than it does now. How it will look in another four weeks is anybody’s guess.

That might be enough to hold governing parties back from the brink. Opposition parties also need to be careful not to engineer — or allow themselves to be blamed for — a government’s defeat.

That’s a particularly acute risk for parties without leaders. The federal Conservatives and Greens, as well as the P.E.I. Liberals and the B.C. Greens, are all in the midst of their own leadership campaigns.

Voting in the time of COVID

Elections officials still have to be prepared for an early election, even if it’s not likely to happen.

Canada will get its first taste of pandemic campaigning in Saskatchewan in just a few months. The province is scheduled to hold its fixed-date provincial election on Oct. 26. The province’s electoral authority is building up its stocks of masks and hand sanitizer and is planning to implement physical distancing measures in polling places and encourage voters to bring their own pens or pencils.

But it’s the situation south of the border which could shape many Canadians’ views of what an election looks like in a pandemic climate.

As the number of new cases and deaths continues to rise in the United States, the country is still going ahead with its constitutionally-required election on Nov. 3. It might not go well.

The number of new cases of COVID-19 and associated deaths has risen dramatically in the United States, where U.S. President Donald Trump faces re-election in November. (Evan Vucci / Associated Press)

Most states will allow Americans to vote by mail, but a few states might still require voters to state a reason for requesting a mail-in ballot. Fear of contracting a deadly disease in some of these states will not fit the bill.

Mail-in voting is also not without its issues. Not every voter has equal access to reliable postal service. Voter registration rules will differ from one state to another — unlike federal elections in Canada, U.S. federal elections are run at the state level — and the validation measures for every ballot will not be uniform.

For many Americans, in-person voting will be their best or only option and long lines at a reduced number of polling locations — such as the ones we saw in a few states during the presidential primaries — could discourage turnout.

In a country with a history of legislated attempts to disenfranchise Black and other minority voters, the potential for entire swathes of the electorate to struggle to have their ballots counted is huge.

It also doesn’t help that U.S. President Donald Trump has actively tried to undermine the legitimacy of the result in advance, making unfounded claims that mail-in voting will be rife with voter fraud. Complicating things further is the fact that, with so many mail-in ballots to count, the results could be unclear for a few days.

It all could be enough to put any Canadian voter off the idea of an election until the pandemic is well behind us. But the timing of that election could depend in part on whether Canadian politicians believe the rewards might be greater than the risks.

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STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

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NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

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Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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