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Why the media shouldn’t write Nikki Haley off

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8 months ago

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Welcome to Up for Debate. Each week, Conor Friedersdorf rounds up timely conversations and solicits reader responses to one thought-provoking question. Later, he publishes some thoughtful replies. Sign up for the newsletter here.

Question of the Week

Layoffs of 115 newsroom staffers at The Los Angeles Times are the latest blow to the ailing news industry. What is the state of local journalism where you live, and how does it affect your community?

Send your responses to conor@theatlantic.com or simply reply to this email.

Conversations of Note

In New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation Republican primary, Donald Trump, the former president, beat Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and ambassador to the United Nations.

Now many in the press are presuming a Trump vs. Biden rematch.

But I’ll proceed writing as though Haley could win, though it may strike some as unsavvy—because she could win, much as an underdog team could come back from a bad first quarter.

In sports, play-by-play commentators often have strong instincts about the likeliest outcome, but no one wants or expects them to focus their real-time analysis on those predictions. Americans would be better served by analogous norms in the press, which should focus less on predicting the future it foresees, particularly given that news coverage itself affects the future; as the 2016 election showed, conventional wisdom among “savvy” pundits can be dead wrong.

In that spirit, let’s look at the race right now. To win the Republican nomination, 1,215 delegates are needed. So far, Donald Trump has won 32 delegates. Nikki Haley has won 17. Before dropping out, Ron DeSantis won nine, and Vivek Ramaswamy won three.

The victor is not yet written.

The next primary, in South Carolina, is a month away. That’s a month for Haley to campaign one-on-one against Trump, in a state where she was governor. It’s a month during which Trump, who is famously erratic and older than he was in his previous run, may say any number of things that cost him support. And the many legal cases against Trump are likely to give voters new information, too. Yes, Trump remains the favorite, but he is by no means already the GOP nominee. And the many voters who are just tuning in deserve a press that covers the remaining primaries as ongoing contests that have yet to unfold, not as formalities with foregone conclusions.

Money Matters

What do I mean when I say that the political press influences the outcome of campaigns with its prognostications? Well, take fundraising. In National Review, the GOP strategist Whit Ayres argues that it will play a big role in the race. “The real question is whether [Haley] can raise sufficient money to sustain a monthlong, one-on-one campaign in South Carolina,” he told the magazine. “Donald Trump has never had to endure a one-on-one sustained campaign in the primary. She’ll at least stay viable for the next month, but she’s got to be able to raise some money.” Haley won’t be able to raise money if everyone is convinced that her loss is inevitable.

The Value of Staying and Fighting

Also in National Review, Jim Geraghty lays out the reasons, as he sees them, that Haley should and shouldn’t stay in the race. He makes clear that she faces an uphill battle in South Carolina and that she is taking a risk by challenging Trump in the state. He writes: “No one has polled South Carolina since Ron DeSantis dropped out, but the most recent Emerson poll had Trump at 54 percent to Haley’s 25 percent. That poll had DeSantis at 7 percent, Chris Christie at 5 percent, and Vivek Ramaswamy at 3 percent. There’s no law that says you must end your campaign when you lose your home state, but … it’s pretty embarrassing when it happens.”

What’s more, Geraghty notes, “the front-runner is a vengeful rage-aholic who loathes her, carries grudges, and is explicitly running on a campaign theme of retribution.” Still, he writes, there’s this:

The rest of the country’s Republicans deserve a choice, too. The Republicans who don’t want Donald Trump are a minority, but they are a large minority … There are a lot of Republicans who want to have an option to say, “No, Trump is not the right direction for this party,” and they deserve to have an opportunity to have their voices heard. If Haley drops out, very few Republicans will bother to participate in the remaining primaries and caucuses. There are 48 states that have not yet voted in this presidential primary.

Given all of that, Haley staying in the race is arguably a risky and admirable choice.

An Influential Mass Murder

On January 21, the 100th anniversary of Vladimir Lenin’s death, Ilya Somin argued that we should remember the Communist leader as follows:

Lenin was the one who initiated the policies that caused about 90% of the repression and death in the Soviet Union … later communist regimes tended to adopt similar policies to those of the Soviet Union and got similar results. Mao Zedong managed to exceed the Soviet Union in sheer numbers of victims (he had a much larger population to work with). Cambodia’s Pol Pot killed a higher percentage of his population in a shorter period of time, and arguably managed to exceed both the Soviets and Chinese in sheer torture and cruelty. But these mass murderers were, on major issues, still largely following the model first established by Lenin … Ultimately, the root of the evil here wasn’t the personality of any one leader, but the ideology Lenin, Stalin, and their comrades all sought to implement. But Lenin was nonetheless notable for being the first to lead a regime that pursued these policies, and set an example for all that followed.

Provocation of the Week

In a recent episode of the podcast 60 Songs That Explain the ’90s, its host, Rob Harvilla, mused about how distracted we all are in the age of tabbed web browsing, smartphones, and social media––something he feels most powerfully, as a longtime rock critic, when he tries to watch a music video from beginning to end without doing anything else and finds that his attention span has been destroyed. It makes him think back to the 1980s, when MTV was regarded as a force that was polluting the youth, in part by destroying their precious attention spans.

He reflected:

Remember when “MTV-style editing” was a slur in magazines and newspapers and movie reviews and the venerable halls of shrewd cultural analysis? The quick, nonsensical cuts. The wanton flashiness. The narrative dysfunction. The brazen, lewd insouciant randomness of your typical MTV video. MTV was a sign of the apocalypse. MTV was the apocalypse.

Most of all, he recalled, the MTV show Beavis and Butt-Head was seen as corrupting young people. And yet, he argued:

At its core, the show Beavis and Butt-Head is about two burnout-loser-miscreant teenagers who just sit on a couch and watch music videos on MTV with zero other distractions, and then they share their feelings about what they see and hear … Do you have any idea how wholesome, how admirable, how culturally enriching, the mid-’90s TV show Beavis and Butt-Head feels now, in 2024? They just sit there and watch music videos, and listen! And pay attention! And have engrossing conversations with one another …

Watching old clips, I’d forgotten how much silence there is. They’ll go 30 seconds without saying anything to one another. There’s a genuine reverence, a focus. It’s astounding. It’s archaic. The sheer length and intensity of their attention spans feels like ancient history, like science fiction. It’s like that Mike Judge movie Idiocracy, where the dumbest person in 2005 is like the smartest person alive 500 years later … What I’m saying to you is that if Beavis and Butt-Head were actual human teenagers in the 1990s, then right now, in 2024, as adults, they’d be in the Senate. They’d be leading the Senate.

Thanks for your contributions. I read every one that you send. By submitting an email, you’ve agreed to let us use it—in part or in full—in the newsletter and on our website. Published feedback may include a writer’s full name, city, and state, unless otherwise requested in your initial note, and may be edited for length and clarity.

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What to stream this weekend: ‘Civil War,’ Snow Patrol, ‘How to Die Alone,’ ‘Tulsa King’ and ‘Uglies’

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2 days ago

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September 13, 2024

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Hallmark launching a streaming service with two new original series, and Bill Skarsgård out for revenge in “Boy Kills World” are some of the new television, films, music and games headed to a device near you.

Also among the streaming offerings worth your time as selected by The Associated Press’ entertainment journalists: Alex Garland’s “Civil War” starring Kirsten Dunst, Natasha Rothwell’s heartfelt comedy for Hulu called “How to Die Alone” and Sylvester Stallone’s second season of “Tulsa King” debuts.

NEW MOVIES TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

— Alex Garland’s “Civil War” is finally making its debut on MAX on Friday. The film stars Kirsten Dunst as a veteran photojournalist covering a violent war that’s divided America; She reluctantly allows an aspiring photographer, played by Cailee Spaeny, to tag along as she, an editor (Stephen McKinley Henderson) and a reporter (Wagner Moura) make the dangerous journey to Washington, D.C., to interview the president (Nick Offerman), a blustery, rising despot who has given himself a third term, taken to attacking his citizens and shut himself off from the press. In my review, I called it a bellowing and haunting experience; Smart and thought-provoking with great performances. It’s well worth a watch.

— Joey King stars in Netflix’s adaptation of Scott Westerfeld’s “Uglies,” about a future society in which everyone is required to have beautifying cosmetic surgery at age 16. Streaming on Friday, McG directed the film, in which King’s character inadvertently finds herself in the midst of an uprising against the status quo. “Outer Banks” star Chase Stokes plays King’s best friend.

— Bill Skarsgård is out for revenge against the woman (Famke Janssen) who killed his family in “Boy Kills World,” coming to Hulu on Friday. Moritz Mohr directed the ultra-violent film, of which Variety critic Owen Gleiberman wrote: “It’s a depraved vision, yet I got caught up in its kick-ass revenge-horror pizzazz, its disreputable commitment to what it was doing.”

— AP Film Writer Lindsey Bahr

NEW MUSIC TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

— The year was 2006. Snow Patrol, the Northern Irish-Scottish alternative rock band, released an album, “Eyes Open,” producing the biggest hit of their career: “Chasing Cars.” A lot has happened in the time since — three, soon to be four quality full-length albums, to be exact. On Friday, the band will release “The Forest Is the Path,” their first new album in seven years. Anthemic pop-rock is the name of the game across songs of love and loss, like “All,”“The Beginning” and “This Is the Sound Of Your Voice.”

— For fans of raucous guitar music, Jordan Peele’s 2022 sci-fi thriller, “NOPE,” provided a surprising, if tiny, thrill. One of the leads, Emerald “Em” Haywood portrayed by Keke Palmer, rocks a Jesus Lizard shirt. (Also featured through the film: Rage Against the Machine, Wipers, Mr Bungle, Butthole Surfers and Earth band shirts.) The Austin noise rock band are a less than obvious pick, having been signed to the legendary Touch and Go Records and having stopped releasing new albums in 1998. That changes on Friday the 13th, when “Rack” arrives. And for those curious: The Jesus Lizard’s intensity never went away.

— AP Music Writer Maria Sherman

NEW SHOWS TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

— Hallmark launched a streaming service called Hallmark+ on Tuesday with two new original series, the scripted drama “The Chicken Sisters” and unscripted series “Celebrations with Lacey Chabert.” If you’re a Hallmark holiday movies fan, you know Chabert. She’s starred in more than 30 of their films and many are holiday themed. Off camera, Chabert has a passion for throwing parties and entertaining. In “Celebrations,” deserving people are surprised with a bash in their honor — planned with Chabert’s help. “The Chicken Sisters” stars Schuyler Fisk, Wendie Malick and Lea Thompson in a show about employees at rival chicken restaurants in a small town. The eight-episode series is based on a novel of the same name.

— Natasha Rothwell of “Insecure” and “The White Lotus” fame created and stars in a new heartfelt comedy for Hulu called “How to Die Alone.” She plays Mel, a broke, go-along-to-get-along, single, airport employee who, after a near-death experience, makes the conscious decision to take risks and pursue her dreams. Rothwell has been working on the series for the past eight years and described it to The AP as “the most vulnerable piece of art I’ve ever put into the world.” Like Mel, Rothwell had to learn to bet on herself to make the show she wanted to make. “In the Venn diagram of me and Mel, there’s significant overlap,” said Rothwell. It premieres Friday on Hulu.

— Shailene Woodley, DeWanda Wise and Betty Gilpin star in a new drama for Starz called “Three Women,” about entrepreneur Sloane, homemaker Lina and student Maggie who are each stepping into their power and making life-changing decisions. They’re interviewed by a writer named Gia (Woodley.) The series is based on a 2019 best-selling book of the same name by Lisa Taddeo. “Three Women” premieres Friday on Starz.

— Sylvester Stallone’s second season of “Tulsa King” debuts Sunday on Paramount+. Stallone plays Dwight Manfredi, a mafia boss who was recently released from prison after serving 25 years. He’s sent to Tulsa to set up a new crime syndicate. The series is created by Taylor Sheridan of “Yellowstone” fame.

— Alicia Rancilio

NEW VIDEO GAMES TO PLAY

— One thing about the title of Focus Entertainment’s Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 — you know exactly what you’re in for. You are Demetrian Titus, a genetically enhanced brute sent into battle against the Tyranids, an insectoid species with an insatiable craving for human flesh. You have a rocket-powered suit of armor and an arsenal of ridiculous weapons like the “Chainsword,” the “Thunderhammer” and the “Melta Rifle,” so what could go wrong? Besides the squishy single-player mode, there are cooperative missions and six-vs.-six free-for-alls. You can suit up now on PlayStation 5, Xbox X/S or PC.

— Likewise, Wild Bastards isn’t exactly the kind of title that’s going to attract fans of, say, Animal Crossing. It’s another sci-fi shooter, but the protagonists are a gang of 13 varmints — aliens and androids included — who are on the run from the law. Each outlaw has a distinctive set of weapons and special powers: Sarge, for example, is a robot with horse genes, while Billy the Squid is … well, you get the idea. Australian studio Blue Manchu developed the 2019 cult hit Void Bastards, and this Wild-West-in-space spinoff has the same snarky humor and vibrant, neon-drenched cartoon look. Saddle up on PlayStation 5, Xbox X/S, Nintendo Switch or PC.

— Lou Kesten

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Trump could cash out his DJT stock within weeks. Here’s what happens if he sells

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3 weeks ago

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August 23, 2024

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Former President Donald Trump is on the brink of a significant financial decision that could have far-reaching implications for both his personal wealth and the future of his fledgling social media company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG). As the lockup period on his shares in TMTG, which owns Truth Social, nears its end, Trump could soon be free to sell his substantial stake in the company. However, the potential payday, which makes up a large portion of his net worth, comes with considerable risks for Trump and his supporters.

Trump’s stake in TMTG comprises nearly 59% of the company, amounting to 114,750,000 shares. As of now, this holding is valued at approximately $2.6 billion. These shares are currently under a lockup agreement, a common feature of initial public offerings (IPOs), designed to prevent company insiders from immediately selling their shares and potentially destabilizing the stock. The lockup, which began after TMTG’s merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), is set to expire on September 25, though it could end earlier if certain conditions are met.

Should Trump decide to sell his shares after the lockup expires, the market could respond in unpredictable ways. The sale of a substantial number of shares by a major stakeholder like Trump could flood the market, potentially driving down the stock price. Daniel Bradley, a finance professor at the University of South Florida, suggests that the market might react negatively to such a large sale, particularly if there aren’t enough buyers to absorb the supply. This could lead to a sharp decline in the stock’s value, impacting both Trump’s personal wealth and the company’s market standing.

Moreover, Trump’s involvement in Truth Social has been a key driver of investor interest. The platform, marketed as a free speech alternative to mainstream social media, has attracted a loyal user base largely due to Trump’s presence. If Trump were to sell his stake, it might signal a lack of confidence in the company, potentially shaking investor confidence and further depressing the stock price.

Trump’s decision is also influenced by his ongoing legal battles, which have already cost him over $100 million in legal fees. Selling his shares could provide a significant financial boost, helping him cover these mounting expenses. However, this move could also have political ramifications, especially as he continues his bid for the Republican nomination in the 2024 presidential race.

Trump Media’s success is closely tied to Trump’s political fortunes. The company’s stock has shown volatility in response to developments in the presidential race, with Trump’s chances of winning having a direct impact on the stock’s value. If Trump sells his stake, it could be interpreted as a lack of confidence in his own political future, potentially undermining both his campaign and the company’s prospects.

Truth Social, the flagship product of TMTG, has faced challenges in generating traffic and advertising revenue, especially compared to established social media giants like X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook. Despite this, the company’s valuation has remained high, fueled by investor speculation on Trump’s political future. If Trump remains in the race and manages to secure the presidency, the value of his shares could increase. Conversely, any missteps on the campaign trail could have the opposite effect, further destabilizing the stock.

As the lockup period comes to an end, Trump faces a critical decision that could shape the future of both his personal finances and Truth Social. Whether he chooses to hold onto his shares or cash out, the outcome will likely have significant consequences for the company, its investors, and Trump’s political aspirations.

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Arizona man accused of social media threats to Trump is arrested

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3 weeks ago

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August 23, 2024

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Cochise County, AZ — Law enforcement officials in Arizona have apprehended Ronald Lee Syvrud, a 66-year-old resident of Cochise County, after a manhunt was launched following alleged death threats he made against former President Donald Trump. The threats reportedly surfaced in social media posts over the past two weeks, as Trump visited the US-Mexico border in Cochise County on Thursday.

Syvrud, who hails from Benson, Arizona, located about 50 miles southeast of Tucson, was captured by the Cochise County Sheriff’s Office on Thursday afternoon. The Sheriff’s Office confirmed his arrest, stating, “This subject has been taken into custody without incident.”

In addition to the alleged threats against Trump, Syvrud is wanted for multiple offences, including failure to register as a sex offender. He also faces several warrants in both Wisconsin and Arizona, including charges for driving under the influence and a felony hit-and-run.

The timing of the arrest coincided with Trump’s visit to Cochise County, where he toured the US-Mexico border. During his visit, Trump addressed the ongoing border issues and criticized his political rival, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, for what he described as lax immigration policies. When asked by reporters about the ongoing manhunt for Syvrud, Trump responded, “No, I have not heard that, but I am not that surprised and the reason is because I want to do things that are very bad for the bad guys.”

This incident marks the latest in a series of threats against political figures during the current election cycle. Just earlier this month, a 66-year-old Virginia man was arrested on suspicion of making death threats against Vice President Kamala Harris and other public officials.

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