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Why US Real Estate Has Prospered During COVID – International Banker

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By Cary Springfield, International Banker

This article was originally published in the Winter/February 2021 edition of International Banker

It is safe to say that the majority of financial markets experienced unparalleled levels of turbulence in 2020. A global pandemic caused a sharp worldwide economic contraction, leaving a spate of global markets decimated—in many cases, both demand and supply were severely affected. The devastation has been nowhere as apparent as it has been in the United States, where the virus continues to wreak havoc, with the daily death rate remaining well above 3,000. But although most US markets endured bearish periods during 2020, the real-estate market was one of the few to experience continuous sustained growth, as house prices rose consistently throughout the year.

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Of course, house-price appreciation in the US is nothing new. Since January 2012, prices have risen almost continuously by around 70 percent on average across the nation. But with the coronavirus severely impacting household incomes, it would only be reasonable to assume that the resultant lack of income security would have a dampening effect on demand for homes. Indeed, according to figures published in November by the US Congressional Research Service, nearly half of all American households had experienced “at least some loss of employment income since March 2020, when the economic effects of the pandemic first became apparent”.

And yet robust demand for homes coupled with decidedly constrained supply have allowed the housing market’s bullishness to continue throughout 2020—a bullishness that is expected to remain throughout the coming year at the very least. The outbreak of the pandemic at the end of 2020’s first quarter initially saw home sales plummet, as uncertainty gripped the country and led to a nosedive in market interest for both buying and selling homes. Government directives such as shelter-in-place and social-distancing requirements meant that buyers were discouraged from seeking new accommodations, while sellers were less keen on listing their properties and interacting with prospective buyers.

In April and May, therefore, home sales plunged to their lowest levels since the aftermath of the 2007-09 global financial crisis over a decade before. But activity subsequently rebounded, with sales surging over the summer and throughout the latter half of the year. Sales of previously owned houses reached a 15-year high in October, before marginally declining a month later.

Further highlighting the buoyant US residential real-estate market last year, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for November showed that mortgage applications for new home purchases increased by a whopping 34.7 percent from a year earlier. “November new home sales activity, both mortgage applications and home sales, ran at a pace considerably ahead of 2019, showing the ongoing strong growth in housing demand and new residential construction,” noted Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting.

Accompanying this flurry of housing-market activity has been strongly appreciating house prices, which have risen consistently throughout the year. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, which covers changes in the value of single-family housing stock in Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, Washington DC, Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Portland (Oregon), Seattle and Tampa, posted a 9.1-percent year-over-year gain in November, up from 8.0 percent in the previous month. Even in April and May, when housing-market activity was relatively subdued, house prices continued their upward march.

So, why has this been the case? It would seem that a combination of higher housing demand and limited supply has contributed to the appreciation. From a demand perspective, buyer interest has surged since the summer on the back of a significantly expansive monetary policy adopted by the Federal Reserve System (the Fed). In early March, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points, before lowering them again 10 days later to its lower bound of 0-0.25 percent. The US central bank has also bought substantial volumes of mortgage bonds since March 2020—it purchased $300 billion of the debt securities backed by US home loans during each of March and April, followed by a further $100 billion per month since then, which has helped to send mortgage rates repeatedly to new record lows during the year. As such, prospective homebuyers were incentivised in 2020 to take advantage of the historically low rates and purchase a home, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noting that the housing demand was largely prompted by a “fear of missing out” on such attractive rates.

On the supply side, meanwhile, there has been a much greater reluctance from homeowners to sell their homes during the pandemic. A handful of states have stay-at-home orders still in place, while mask mandates and some degree of restrictions on business are currently in effect throughout most states. As such, the pandemic has only emphasised the need for residents to remain in their homes while authorities strive to bring the spread of the virus under control. The coronavirus’s highly infectious nature has further underlined the tendency for people to remain in their current dwellings and follow the new social-distancing norms.

This dearth of supply has underpinned much of the positive price action the US real-estate market has witnessed over the last year or so. Indeed, even when home sales fell in April and May, the low existing inventory of houses meant that prices remained resilient in the face of declining demand. And when demand surged during the following months, the supply of houses remained muted, with concerns surrounding the transmission of COVID-19 and economic anxiety keeping homeowners in their existing homes. “New listings, despite improving from their April lows, were only slightly higher than one year ago through August,” the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis noted in October. “As a result, inventory continued to decline: In August 2020, there were less than two-thirds the number of homes on the market as there were in August 2019.”

In a clear attempt to prevent another full-blown housing-market crash in the same vein as the global financial crisis, moreover, US authorities have been significantly more proactive in ensuring the pandemic does not put homeowners under any undue pressure. Specifically, it has provided relief in the form of a foreclosure and eviction moratorium, which was enacted in March and prevents direct mortgage servicers from any new foreclosure action as well as suspending any in progress for single-family properties insured by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). “Extending Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s foreclosure and eviction moratoriums through January 2021 keeps borrowers safe during the pandemic,” said FHFA Director Mark Calabria. “This extension gives peace of mind to the more than 28 million homeowners with an Enterprise-backed mortgage.”

Will house prices continue to rise in 2021? Given how far the US remains from achieving any semblance of normalcy due to the coronavirus, it would seem that restrictive measures will force the Fed to keep its accommodative monetary policy in place for some time to come. Indeed, it stated in late January that it planned to keep its benchmark rate near zero, where it is likely to remain until at least next year, if not longer. The Fed’s review of its monetary-policy framework, which was completed last year, concluded that a new policy framework that “seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time” will also ensure that rates remain low until inflation at least moves above its target. Such a scenario seems highly unlikely to transpire in 2021.

“Circumstances are far from being back to the pre-pandemic normal. However, the latest stimulus package and with the vaccine distribution underway, and very strong demand for homeownership still prevalent, robust growth is forthcoming for 2021”, Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), stated in December. Yun expects home prices to rise by 3 percent in 2021, further underlining that the strong bullish sentiment the US real-estate market experienced during a COVID-wracked 2020 is not going away anytime soon.

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Developer Sam Mizrahi files lawsuit against Edward Rogers and his real estate fund, alleges $30-million loss – The Globe and Mail

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A condominium at 128 HazeltonAve. in Toronto’s Yorkville neighbourhood. The property was developed by Sam Mizrahi.Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail

Real estate developer Sam Mizrahi has filed a lawsuit against Edward Rogers and Constantine Enterprises Inc., the real estate fund Mr. Rogers owns, escalating a battle between the businessmen amid an alleged $30-million loss on their flagship condo project.

In a lawsuit filed this month in Ontario Superior Court, Mr. Mizrahi alleges Mr. Rogers and his business partner Robert Hiscox, who co-own Constantine, blocked multiple attempts made by Mr. Mizrahi to salvage more value from the two real estate ventures they were jointly developing. After Mr. Mizrahi’s efforts were denied, Constantine requested court-appointed receivers for both projects.

Mr. Mizrahi is suing Mr. Rogers, Mr. Hiscox and Constantine for breach of contract, negligence, and breach of fiduciary duty, among other allegations, and is seeking $100-million in damages.

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Mr. Mizrahi alleges his 20-unit luxury condo project developed with Constantine, known as 128 Hazelton in Toronto’s Yorkville neighbourhood, has incurred losses totalling more than $30-million, and that Constantine wants him to share 50 per cent of this loss. Because Mr. Mizrahi has refused, he alleges Constantine blocked his attempts to sell undeveloped land at their other project, known as 180 Steeles or 180 SAW, and also blocked other financing initiatives he put together.

“The defendants refused to realize the profit to be garnered on the 180 SAW project based upon offers Sam solicited, because Sam asserted his legal rights and could not be coerced to agree to indemnify Constantine 50 per cent of its losses on the 128 Hazelton project as a condition of accepting the offers on the 180 SAW project,” the lawsuit alleges.

In an e-mail to The Globe and Mail, Constantine’s Mr. Hiscox disputed Mr. Mizrahi’s narrative, claiming that “in December 2021, Sam, through one of his entities, had agreed, as a 50-per-cent partner in Hazelton, to share equally in the losses of that project. This was documented in the ‘contribution agreement.’”

Mr. Hiscox also wrote: “We are about to enter the 10th year of what Mizrahi represented would be a three-year project,” adding that the project has exceeded Mr. Mizrahi’s original budget by more than $50-million, or almost double the original estimate.

Mr. Mizrahi filed his lawsuit after two major developments. In January, the senior lender to 128 Hazelton, Duca Financial Services Credit Union Ltd., alleged default and requested a receiver for the project.

A month later, Constantine bought out Duca’s debt, then filed its own request for court-appointed receivers for both 128 Hazelton and 180 Steeles, with the hope that a third party would complete sales for each. In an interview with The Globe at the time, Mr. Mizrahi referred to the action as “predatorial” behaviour.

As of January, Constantine and Mr. Mizrahi owned eight units in 128 Hazelton, and in its receivership application Constantine alleged Mr. Mizrahi’s company “failed or neglected to provide its share of the required additional funds necessary to complete and sell the remaining Hazelton project units.”

As for the 180 Steeles project, Constantine alleged it was owed $29-million by Mr. Mizrahi, but had lost confidence in his ability to repay the debt. Constantine was also concerned that Mr. Mizrahi’s company “will continue to fail or neglect to make its required capital contributions to the partnership.” 180 Steeles is located on Toronto’s northern border but is in the preconstruction phase and was put up for sale a year ago.

As the legal battle escalates, both sides have alleged the other has acted in bad faith. In February, for instance, Mr. Mizrahi told The Globe he tried to arrange financing from Third Eye Capital, or TEC, a private lender, to buy out Duca’s loan and sought Constantine’s approval, but later learned Constantine had struck a private deal to do the same itself. “They didn’t tell me, they weren’t transparent,” he said.

In his e-mail Wednesday, Mr. Hiscox wrote, “There were a number of issues with that financing proposal, not the least of which was the cost of the TEC debt being much higher than the existing Duca debt.”

Mr. Mizrahi also brought in Hyundai Asset Management, a South Korean entity, as a potential buyer for the 180 Steeles project, but Constantine would not agree to the transaction, he alleged in his lawsuit.

Mr. Hiscox wrote in his e-mail that the potential buyer “walked from the deal because of the current status of the zoning approval.”

While Mr. Mizrahi battles Constantine in court, another of his Yorkville condo projects, known as The One, is operating under a receiver. The 85-storey project was put into receivership last fall because it owed $1.6-billion to its lenders, is years behind schedule and faces multiple lawsuits. Mr. Mizrahi was recently replaced by Skygrid Construction Inc. as the project manager.

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Final Offer Launches in Canada Bringing Transparency to the Canadian Real Estate Market – Canada NewsWire

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TORONTO, April 25, 2024 /CNW/ – Final Offer, a new online platform for real estate brokerages, agents, home sellers and buyers to leverage the negotiation and offer process, has officially launched in Canada. In partnership with Royal LePage Signature Realty, Royal LePage Your Community Realty and Royal LePage Connect Realty, Final Offer empowers licensed real estate agents to provide a more transparent offer and negotiation experience for the consumer.

For decades, Canadians looking to buy or sell a home have looked for greater transparency during the process.  With the implementation of the Trust in Real Estate Services Act, 2002 (TRESA), Final Offer aligns itself well to disclose to the public exactly what sellers want for their home, including the price and terms. Potential buyers and their real estate agents receive real-time notifications of any action on the property, including when offers are made. Every buyer gets a fair shot at purchasing the property for its true market valueSellers are confident they got the best outcome and achieved their goal.

“The way homes have been bought and sold hasn’t evolved in 100 years, until now,” says Nathan Dart, Senior Vice President of Final Offer. “We set out to enhance the way agents, sellers and buyers collaborate in the offer process by ensuring transparency and visibility. This is particularly important during a time of high housing costs in Canada. We’re thrilled to partner with such well respected market leaders in the GTA that are elevating the home buying and selling experience for all parties.”

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Final Offer has attracted the attention of top real estate leaders in Canada looking to maximize the value of their sellers’ homes, while also giving their buyers transparency into what it will take to make an offer that will be accepted. Agents submit offers for their buyers on finaloffer.com and an interested buyer can have their real estate agent submit their “final offer” at any time and immediately put the home under contract.

“As an owner and operator of a real estate brokerage, I’ve seen the disappointment of our agents’ clients who lost out on their dream home for only a few thousand dollars or sellers who question if they got as much for their home as they possibly could,” says Chris Slightham, Owner and President of Royal LePage Signature Realty. “The ability to see offers in real time and to set and make a ‘final offer’ creates greater transparency and puts all parties in control. After introducing this platform to our realtors, they are seeing the confidence it gives their clients when making purchasing decisions. I believe Final Offer is going to change how real estate is transacted in Canada and beyond.”

Licensed real estate agents, sellers and buyers can all sign up for an account on finaloffer.com. There is no cost for sellers, buyers, and real estate agents making offers for their clients. Agents representing sellers can subscribe for a monthly fee.

“Realtors play a monumental role when advising clients throughout the home sale and purchasing process,” says Vivian Risi, President and Broker of Record of Royal LePage Your Community Realty. “The expectations clients have of their agent have never been higher. Partnering with Final Offer empowers our agents with the latest technology and data to set a strategy with clients to achieve the outcome they desire.”

Final Offer is currently available in Ontario, with further regions to come. Final Offer’s mission is to bring transparency, fairness and efficiency to the Canadian real estate market by empowering all parties involved to make informed decisions during the complex real estate transaction process.

“Canadians are looking for transparency in their real estate negotiations and Final Offer delivers,” says Michelle Risi, Broker of Record of Royal LePage Connect Realty. “There is no better tool available that our agents can use to deliver clear information and real time offer alerts that buyers and sellers demand.”

About Final Offer:
Final Offer is the sole consumer-centric platform, driven by agents, dedicated to managing and negotiating offers for residential real estate. The platform champions transparency throughout the buying and selling process and includes real-time offer alerts, promoting fairness and equity for all parties involved. For more information, visit finaloffer.com.

SOURCE Final Offer

For further information: Media Contact: Samantha Jen, [email protected]

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Luxury Real Estate Prices Hit a Record High in the First Quarter

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Luxury home prices have been rising at a steady pace, and so far this year, values have hit a fresh record high. According to a new Q1 report by the real estate site Redfin, the cost of luxury residential properties—those estimated to be in the top 5 percent of their respective metro area—rose by 9 percent compared to last year and increased twice as fast as non-luxury homes. At the same time, high-end abodes sold for a median price of $1.22 million in the first quarter, a new benchmark from the $1.17 million set in the fourth quarter of 2023.

“People with the means to buy high-end homes are jumping in now because they feel confident prices will continue to rise,” explained David Palmer, a Redfin Premier agent in the Seattle metro area, where the median sale price for luxury homes is a whopping $2.7 million. “They’re ready to buy with more optimism and less apprehension. It’s a similar sentiment on the selling side: prices continue to increase for high-end homes, so homeowners feel it’s a good time to cash in on their equity.”

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To that point, the number of sales of luxury homes saw a 2.1 percent uptick from the year prior. In January, luxury sales began seeing consistent, year-over-year increases for the first time since August 2021. Another notable trend is that buyers are shelling out all-cash offers. Per the report, 46.8 percent of high-end residences purchased between January and March 2024 were paid for in cash, a staggering 44.1 percent gain from last year and the highest percentage in a decade.

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Luxury home prices in Providence, Rhode Island increased 16.2 percent in the first quarter of 2024.

Redfin found that Providence, Rhode Island, had the biggest jump in luxury prices in Q1, with values rising to $1.4 million, a steep 16.2 percent gain. Next was New Brunswick, New Jersey, where the median sale price bounced up 15 percent to $1.9 million. On the flip side, there were eight metros where luxury home prices dipped. Leading that pack was New York City, where prices dropped 9.9 percent to $3.25 million, followed by Austin, Texas, with a 6.9 percent decline.

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