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Why you should carefully consider what Jamie Dimon just told the investing world

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I was sitting in a Washington, D.C., hotel room for the start of bank earnings last Friday morning, a.k.a. the official beginning of earnings season.

I had my normal earnings day routine in full effect: Three large iced coffees nearby, a digital notebook, a pair of headphones, soft-to-the-touch Lululemon clothing, and a story template open and ready to rock.

There were three things I wanted to learn from the big banks: 1) charge-off trends (we cover a lot of retail names here at Yahoo Finance), 2) the state of the deal market, and 3) commentary around Wall Street hiring trends.

I proceeded to open up the JPMorgan earnings release. Per usual, I combed through the numbers along the left rail of the first page. Then, per usual, I focused on the box on the bottom right of the page for the latest commentary from its CEO Jamie Dimon.

This comment from Dimon immediately popped out: “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.”

“Wow, that is pretty intense from Jamie,” I said to myself. “Never heard that tone from him before — what does it mean to the average investor?”

With that comment right there from Dimon, the complexion of this earnings season has dramatically changed. The approach to investing in the market has changed into year-end, I think.

One sentence by the most powerful CEO in the game today. And when he says something like that it warrants a new way of thinking by investors.

Dimon followed up on this thread on the earnings call: “My caution is that we are facing so many uncertainties out there, you just got to be very cautious.” He added he is concerned about government debt levels and inflation, two topics he has focused on in various venues in recent months.

You may be asking yourself why, several days later, I am still harping on these comments.

Here’s why.

The most powerful CEO in the world with the biggest network and the best information is using all of that to put forth guidance to his various stakeholders and followers. Dimon in no way takes making a statement like that lightly. He knows the gravity of his words.

But then, in reality, Dimon is quite correct in his assessment.

The Israel-Hamas war continues to play out on a grand stage worldwide, injecting fresh geopolitical uncertainties. The Ukraine-Russia war rages. All of this has ties back to China and resurfaces our contentious relationship with that country.

The US House of Representatives is a flat-out mess that is making the country look bad again.‌

There is still a chance of a mid-November government shutdown. Inflation is stubborn and rate hikes continue to permeate the economy. Government debt levels are crazy and getting crazier.

Now if you follow the Warren Buffett style of investing, then none of this stuff matters. You buy stocks deemed attractively valued and shuffle along for the next 75 years drinking Coca-Cola.

Not everyone subscribes to that approach, though, and many are trying to live for today by investing in the markets or other assets. To that end, it feels appropriate to have more caution on asset allocation in the near term until some of the aforementioned issues cool down. Besides, stock valuations aren’t exactly cheap.‌

It often pays to listen to smart people in investing, and Dimon is obviously one of the smartest people in the room.‌

In case you were wondering, I got my charge-off answer.

On JPM’s media call, CFO Jeremy Barnum (another smart exec) told me he isn’t seeing “acute pain” in consumers from higher interest rates. It was a fair response but I think one that suggests those retailers we follow here at Yahoo Finance will report tepid third quarter results.

‌Hey, I am pretty smart, too.

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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