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Will car prices come down in 2024? Industry experts share their outlook – Global News

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As Canadians enter 2024, those hoping to pick up a new or used car may see similar prices to what was seen in 2023, with automotive experts saying not to expect the cost for a vehicle to return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, inventory became a big factor due to supply chain issues impacting semiconductors and automotive computer chips, and with it came higher prices due to fewer new and used cars available for purchase.

“So when there (are) fewer cars sold and new cars sold, obviously it has a direct impact on the used market,” Baris Akyurek, vice-president of insights and intelligence at Autotrader.ca, told Global News in an interview. “That’s why we have been seeing inflated prices.”

As 2023 came to a close, however, Akyurek said it has been a “pretty positive” year in terms of availability.

According to Auto Trader’s 2023 trends report released in September, the new car supply had increased from the month prior, with the organization predicting modest increases to inventory in the coming years. New car prices also saw a decline in October, signalling there could finally be a peak in price due to an oversupply of vehicles even with the demand for new cars.

In fact, it notes the new car supply is at its highest level since the middle of 2021, though it still is trying to catch up with “pent-up demand,” with Akyurek explaining there were still 1.3 million fewer vehicles sold between 2020 and 2022.


Click to play video: 'Used car market booms due to new vehicle supply issues'

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Used car market booms due to new vehicle supply issues


This week, DesRosiers Automotive Consultants reported that auto sales jumped 11.8 per cent in 2023 compared to the year prior because of that increased supply. That marks the biggest year-over-year increase since 1997.

Brian Kingston, president of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers Association (CVMA), said that an increase in sales will continue this year with a “return to normalcy” expected.

“You’re going to see inventories at regular levels and as a result, Canadians who want to buy a vehicle should be able to go and do so with relative ease and get what they want quickly,” he told Global News.


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“It’s been a long and challenging recovery for the industry to come out of this COVID pandemic shock and all the supply chain issues, but I think we are hopefully seeing that in the rearview mirror, finally.”

Used car market could see more inventory, but fewer sales

That jump in demand for more recent models, however, means there may be less of a demand for used cars, for which prices have been declining since the end of summer. In just December, AutoTrader saw a 2.4-per cent month-over-month decrease, something Akyurek said hasn’t happened before.

But the increased availability may have Canadians still gravitating to the used car market, according to George Iny with the Automobile Protection Association.

He says people are often turning to late-model used cars for their availability, as opposed to the price.

“A typical case would be something like a Volkswagen GTI or a Toyota RAV4 hybrid, that’s a vehicle that someone might be waiting six to nine months to receive a delivery on in 2024, if not longer,” he said. “So the advantage of buying a three-year-old one for roughly the same price as a brand new one is you get it right away.”

Kingston adds during the pandemic it was a “seller’s market” for used cars because of the production issues, but in 2024 he expects with Canadians having much more access to new vehicles they desire, the used market will return more to its normal function.

New car prices are still the higher number, with AutoTrader reporting the average sitting at $67,817, a 19.4-per cent increase year-over-year, while the Canadian Black Book reports used vehicle are at $39,155 which is just a 4.3-per cent rise.


Click to play video: 'Consumer Matters: Why used car prices remain high'

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Consumer Matters: Why used car prices remain high


2024 will see more ‘electrification’: CVMA

The sales of gas-powered vehicles won’t be the only rise in 2024, with Kingston saying there will be continuing “electrification” with more than 40 additional electric vehicle (EV) models rolling out this year.

“If a Canadian wants an EV, there will be something available that will meet their needs,” he said.

He adds there will likely be more adoption of the vehicles by Canadians this year, pointing out that electric vehicles accounted for 12.1 per cent of all new motor vehicles registered in the third quarter of 2023 — according to Statistics Canada. That’s an increase from 8.7 per cent at the same period in 2022.

In light of the federal government’s recently-announced roadmap to have 100 per cent of cars sold in Canada emitting zero emissions by 2035, Kingston said electrification is going to become more of a focus for Canadians.

“Canadians need to start thinking about an electric vehicle for their next car,” he said. “And starting to look at charging infrastructure, can they install a charger at their home, is there charging available at their place of work, will there be public charging available for the road trips they take, this is going to become increasingly important for all Canadians as we move into this new technology.”


Click to play video: 'Consumer Matters: Car buyers facing dealer markups'

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Consumer Matters: Car buyers facing dealer markups


And while inventory is seeing a boost for both the new and used cars, the Ontario Motor Vehicle Industry Council (OMVIC) cautions the market still hasn’t fully recovered to the point where prices will drop substantially.

“Although there has been some alleviation, the expense of acquiring a vehicle remains high for many Canadians, especially when combined with the currently elevated interest rates,” a spokesperson for OMVIC told Global News in an email.

The organization also warns as Canadians look into a potential vehicle purchase, they should also be sure to know how to protect themselves as supply chain challenges and the resulting inventory issues have led to “nefarious” sales tactics. It said this has included pressuring car buyers to purchase additional products with their vehicle, with it sometimes being presented as mandatory.

The spokesperson said car buyers should recognize they have the right to decline sales arrangements, such as charging a market adjustment fee, and if the dealer refuses, Canadians can walk away and buy elsewhere.

with files from Global News’ Kyle Benning and The Canadian Press

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STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

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NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

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Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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