A new report predicts food products in Canada will have an average inflation rate increase between 2.5 and 4.5 per cent next year, down from the average five to seven per cent in 2023.
The report aims to review the year in food policy and costs and predict the rate of inflation for the next year.
One expert says 2024 will be important because it is the first full year where prices are expected to “normalize” since the COVID-19 pandemic.
“This is a good news report,” Sylvain Charlebois, one of the authors of the publication and director of Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab, told CTVNews.ca in an interview. “I think people should feel positive about 2024.”
In the latest edition of the annual report, the authors believe the overall rate of inflation will be lower in 2024, falling to somewhere between 2.5 and 4.5 per cent.
According to Charlebois, things are “much calmer now,” which could result in more deals and potentially some price wars between the big grocers.
“Margins are going to be everything,” he said. “And because consumers don’t have any money now, grocers will be fighting for our business.”
Over the next year, Charlebois believes grocery stores will be offering more incentives to consumers like loyalty programs and deals to entice people.
One of the tactics used is selling items at a loss, which brings the customer through the grocer’s doors, but then the store would increase the prices for other items, hoping the consumer will buy those as well, he explained.
“For example, I can tell you that some turkeys are sold at a loss right now, but they want you in there so you can buy the overpriced cranberries, the overpriced stuffing, the overpriced carrots and things like that,” Charlebois said.
YEAR IN REVIEW
This year was marked by soaring food inflation that burned a hole in the pockets of Canadians.
Researchers use prediction analytics models, including machine learning, to project future food prices, the report notes.
Prices for all food categories could rise by as much as 4.5 per cent in 2024, with the most significant increases of five to seven per cent in bakery products, meat and vegetables.
“Produce has always been volatile, that’s not going to change,” Charlebois said. “While we are expecting bakery to continue to rise, I’d say pork has been a good deal this year in 2023, but it’s not going to be the case in 2024.”
Dairy and fruit are expected to have rates between one and three per cent, whereas seafood and restaurant food is expected to be between three and five per cent.
The report also broke down how much this would cost for different Canadian families.
Feeding a family consisting of a man (aged 31 to 50), a woman (aged 31 to 50), a boy (aged 14 to 18) and a girl (aged nine to 13) per year is expected to cost around $16,297.20.
Cost breakdown of food to feed different families in Canada.
A family consisting of two women (31 to 50), a girl (14 to 18) and a boy (nine to 13) is estimated to spend $15,323.44 on food in 2024.
A family of six, with two parents, a grandparent and three children under the age of 13 will spend around $21,704.64, the report predicts.
FACTORS THAT INCREASE FOOD COSTS
Socio-economic, environmental and political issues all impact food costs, the researchers say.
According to the report, climate change is “very likely” to play a factor in cost increases and will have a “very significant” impact on the price of food in 2024.
It is “likely” geopolitical risks and input costs will both have “significant” impacts on some foods, the report notes.
In 2023, the war in Ukraine impacted several items like wheat, sunflower oil and fertilizers. The report notes the recent conflict in the Middle East could increase oil prices, which could result in the inflation of food prices.
Energy costs and inflation are “very likely” to continue to increase food costs as well.
By province, overall food cost increases are expected for Alberta, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario and Saskatchewan in 2024.
Decreases in food inflation are expected for Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island and Quebec.
British Columbia’s food inflation rate is forecast to stay relatively the same.
“In 2023, some markets were more affected than others, especially the Atlantic,” Charlebois said. “We are expecting a bit of a break for 2024 … I do believe that Ontario and Quebec are going to be battlegrounds for loyalty.”
VANCOUVER – Contract negotiations resume today in Vancouver in a labour dispute that has paralyzed container cargo shipping at British Columbia’s ports since Monday.
The BC Maritime Employers Association and International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 are scheduled to meet for the next three days in mediated talks to try to break a deadlock in negotiations.
The union, which represents more than 700 longshore supervisors at ports, including Vancouver, Prince Rupert and Nanaimo, has been without a contract since March last year.
The latest talks come after employers locked out workers in response to what it said was “strike activity” by union members.
The start of the lockout was then followed by several days of no engagement between the two parties, prompting federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon to speak with leaders on both sides, asking them to restart talks.
MacKinnon had said that the talks were “progressing at an insufficient pace, indicating a concerning absence of urgency from the parties involved” — a sentiment echoed by several business groups across Canada.
In a joint letter, more than 100 organizations, including the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Business Council of Canada and associations representing industries from automotive and fertilizer to retail and mining, urged the government to do whatever it takes to end the work stoppage.
“While we acknowledge efforts to continue with mediation, parties have not been able to come to a negotiated agreement,” the letter says. “So, the federal government must take decisive action, using every tool at its disposal to resolve this dispute and limit the damage caused by this disruption.
“We simply cannot afford to once again put Canadian businesses at risk, which in turn puts Canadian livelihoods at risk.”
In the meantime, the union says it has filed a complaint to the Canada Industrial Relations Board against the employers, alleging the association threatened to pull existing conditions out of the last contract in direct contact with its members.
“The BCMEA is trying to undermine the union by attempting to turn members against its democratically elected leadership and bargaining committee — despite the fact that the BCMEA knows full well we received a 96 per cent mandate to take job action if needed,” union president Frank Morena said in a statement.
The employers have responded by calling the complaint “another meritless claim,” adding the final offer to the union that includes a 19.2 per cent wage increase over a four-year term remains on the table.
“The final offer has been on the table for over a week and represents a fair and balanced proposal for employees, and if accepted would end this dispute,” the employers’ statement says. “The offer does not require any concessions from the union.”
The union says the offer does not address the key issue of staffing requirement at the terminals as the port introduces more automation to cargo loading and unloading, which could potentially require fewer workers to operate than older systems.
The Port of Vancouver is the largest in Canada and has seen a number of labour disruptions, including two instances involving the rail and grain storage sectors earlier this year.
A 13-day strike by another group of workers at the port last year resulted in the disruption of a significant amount of shipping and trade.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
The Royal Canadian Legion says a new partnership with e-commerce giant Amazon is helping boost its veterans’ fund, and will hopefully expand its donor base in the digital world.
Since the Oct. 25 launch of its Amazon.ca storefront, the legion says it has received nearly 10,000 orders for poppies.
Online shoppers can order lapel poppies on Amazon in exchange for donations or buy items such as “We Remember” lawn signs, Remembrance Day pins and other accessories, with all proceeds going to the legion’s Poppy Trust Fund for Canadian veterans and their families.
Nujma Bond, the legion’s national spokesperson, said the organization sees this move as keeping up with modern purchasing habits.
“As the world around us evolves we have been looking at different ways to distribute poppies and to make it easier for people to access them,” she said in an interview.
“This is definitely a way to reach a wider number of Canadians of all ages. And certainly younger Canadians are much more active on the web, on social media in general, so we’re also engaging in that way.”
Al Plume, a member of a legion branch in Trenton, Ont., said the online store can also help with outreach to veterans who are far from home.
“For veterans that are overseas and are away, (or) can’t get to a store they can order them online, it’s Amazon.” Plume said.
Plume spent 35 years in the military with the Royal Engineers, and retired eight years ago. He said making sure veterans are looked after is his passion.
“I’ve seen the struggles that our veterans have had with Veterans Affairs … and that’s why I got involved, with making sure that the people get to them and help the veterans with their paperwork.”
But the message about the Amazon storefront didn’t appear to reach all of the legion’s locations, with volunteers at Branch 179 on Vancouver’s Commercial Drive saying they hadn’t heard about the online push.
Holly Paddon, the branch’s poppy campaign co-ordinator and bartender, said the Amazon partnership never came up in meetings with other legion volunteers and officials.
“I work at the legion, I work with the Vancouver poppy office and I go to the meetings for the Vancouver poppy campaign — which includes all the legions in Vancouver — and not once has this been mentioned,” she said.
Paddon said the initiative is a great idea, but she would like to have known more about it.
The legion also sells a larger collection of items at poppystore.ca.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
Cost breakdown of food to feed different families in Canada.
