What goes up doesn’t necessarily come down.
That’s contrary to the sentiment of a surprisingly large proportion of respondents to the Bank of Canada’s quarterly consumer expectations survey, released last week.
According to the survey, more than a quarter of Canadians believe that current decades-high prices will drop five years from now.
“What goes up must come down,” said one respondent in a post-survey interview.
The sentiment likely raised eyebrows at the central bank.
The chance of deflation in five years is “extremely unlikely,” said Laval University economics professor Stephen Gordon.
Though some prices will come down, as has been the case with gasoline prices, Gordon said higher prices for goods feed into each other through the supply chain and become baked into the economy.
“It starts getting embedded into people’s expectations and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he said.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada said confusion between deflation (falling prices) and disinflation (slowing price growth) wasn’t the reason the figure was so high, noting that its survey respondents understood the difference.
The central bank regularly monitors inflation expectations in the economy to make sure it has control over price growth. With inflation running well above its two per cent target, inflation expectations have been a top concern for the Bank of Canada.
If people and firms expect inflation to remain high in the future, that expectation can lead to businesses setting prices higher and workers asking for higher wages.
Normally, people expect deflation when the economy isn’t doing well. However, the Bank of Canada pointed out that respondents who said they are anticipating deflation were less likely than other Canadians to expect a recession in the next twelve months.
Instead, these respondents were more likely to believe that inflation was caused by supply chain disruptions. Once these temporary pressures on inflation fade, many of them believe prices that rose rapidly would then decline.
Although TD director of economics James Orlando agrees that deflation is unlikely on the horizon, he said there is logic behind what these respondents are thinking.
“As supply chains ease, and they’re easing very quickly right now, we’re going to start getting more and more discounting,” Orlando said.
Consumer price index data shows prices for some goods have already been falling in recent months.
The prices of durable goods for example, which includes products like furniture, fell between November and December.
However, that doesn’t mean the economy will experience broad-based deflation, Orlando said.
“The reason why we don’t think total inflation is going to be sustained in a negative territory … is because you got to consider that the economy isn’t just goods, but it’s also services,” he said.
Prices for services are driven by wages, he said, which are unlikely to fall given their sticky nature.
Though deflation may sound like good news on face value, Gordon said it isn’t something anyone should be wishing for.
“Business would have to be in really bad condition for firms to be cutting their prices. And if they’re in that situation, they’re probably cutting workers,” he said.
Similarly to high inflation, deflation would also set alarm bells off at the central bank. Orlando said Canada’s economic system expects there to be some inflation and has that built into expectations. It’s
If prices were to begin falling, that would force the Bank of Canada to jump in and stabilize prices.
For now, the central bank’s worries are far-removed from fears of deflation.
Canada’s annual inflation rate was 6.3 per cent in December, a noticeable improvement from the month prior but still too high for the Bank of Canada’s comfort.
Though some Canadians appear to believe prices will repair themselves, the Bank of Canada isn’t counting on it as it gears up for one more — and potentially final — interest rate increase on Wednesday.
Alberta Justice spokespeople deliver duelling statements on prosecutor email review
An email probe into whether Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s office interfered with Crown prosecutors took a confusing turn Friday after two government spokespeople delivered duelling statements that raised questions over how far back the search went.
The review was ordered by Smith a week ago to respond to allegations in a CBC story that reported a staffer in the premier’s office emailed prosecutors last fall to question decisions and direction on cases stemming from a blockade at the Canada-U. S. border crossing at Coutts, Alta.
The Justice Department said Monday it had done a four-month search of ingoing, outgoing and deleted emails and found no evidence of contact.
Two days later, Alberta Justice communications director Charles Mainville said in a statement that deleted emails are wiped from the system after 30 days, meaning the search for deleted emails may not have covered the entire time period in question.
On Thursday night, Ethan Lecavalier-Kidney, a spokesman for Justice Minister Tyler Shandro, responded to questions about Mainville’s statement. He said while emails are deleted after 30 days, they live on in the system for another 30 and could have been checked that far back by investigators.
“For example, if an email was deleted on Oct. 17, 2022, the email would no longer be accessible to the user as of Nov. 16, 2022, but would continue to be available to our investigation team until Dec. 16, 2022,” said Lecavalier-Kidney in his statement.
A 60-day search would have stretched back to late November, capturing all but the first six weeks of Smith’s United Conservative Party government. Smith was sworn in as premier on Oct. 11.
But while Lecavalier-Kidney’s statement said investigators could go back 60 days, it did not state that they did so, leaving confusion on how far back they went.
When asked Friday to clarify whether investigators went back 30 or 60 days on the deleted emails, Lecavalier-Kidney did not respond to questions while Mainville reissued the original statements in an email.
The government has also delivered conflicting messages on who was investigated in the review.
Smith promised that emails from all Crown prosecutors and the 34 staffers in her office would be checked.
However, the Justice Department later said emails between “relevant” prosecutors and Smith staffers were checked. It did not say how it determined who was relevant.
The Coutts blockade and COVID-19 protest at the border crossing last year saw RCMP lay charges against several people, ranging from mischief to conspiracy to commit murder.
Smith has said she did not direct prosecutors in the Coutts cases and the email review exonerated her office from what she called “baseless” allegations in the CBC story.
The CBC has said that it has not seen the emails in question but stands by its reporting.
The Opposition NDP said questions stemming from the CBC story, coupled with multiple conflicting statements from the premier on what she has said to Justice Department officials about the COVID-19 cases, can only be resolved through an independent investigation.
Smith has given six versions in recent weeks of what she has said to justice officials about COVID-19 cases.
Smith has said she talked to prosecutors directly and did not talk to prosecutors directly. She has said she reminded justice officials of general prosecution guidelines, but at other times reminded them to consider factors unique to COVID-19 cases. She has also suggested the conversations are ongoing and that they have ended.
She has attributed the confusion to “imprecise” word choices.
Smith has long been openly critical of COVID-19 masking, gathering and vaccine mandate rules, questioning if they were needed to fight the pandemic and labelling them intolerable violations of personal freedoms.
She has also called those unvaccinated against COVID-19 the most discriminated group she has seen in her lifetime.
Last fall, Smith said charges in the cases were grounded in politics and should be open to political solutions. But she recently said it’s important to let the court process play out independently.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 27, 2023.
Trudeau government dropped the ball on fighting abuse in sport, former minister says
A Liberal MP and former sport minister is again calling for a public inquiry into abuse in sport — and is accusing her own government of not doing enough to tackle the problem.
Kirsty Duncan said the government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau failed to build momentum behind her efforts to prevent harassment, abuse and discrimination in sport in the years after she left cabinet — despite knowing a lot about the problem well before Hockey Canada’s handling of sexual assault allegations exploded in the news last year.
Duncan said she even faced “pushback” from people within her own government when she made tackling abuse a top priority of her time as sport minister.
Duncan said she would not identify the individuals who resisted her efforts, or state whether they were in her own office or other government departments.
“It should not be a fight. I’m asking for the protection of athletes and children. There should never have been pushback,” Duncan told CBC News in an exclusive interview.
“I will not stand idly by while there are athletes, children and young people hurting in this country. And I do not accept the status quo. And if I do not push for an inquiry, it means accepting the status quo. And I will not be complicit.”
On Thursday, Duncan announced she’s taking medical leave effective immediately on the advice of doctors to deal with a physical health challenge.
Duncan was not re-appointed to cabinet by Trudeau after the 2019 election. She was instead appointed deputy House leader for the government.
Trudeau dropped the position of sport minister from cabinet at the time and folded Duncan’s responsibilities into the portfolio of the heritage minister, Steven Guilbeault.
Guilbeault’s ministerial mandate letter — which outlined his key policy objectives — charged him with fostering a culture of safe sport.
In response to questions from CBC about the progress Guilbeault made on that mandate, his office pointed to a Sport Canada timeline of safe sport initiatives in the country.
The department launched a call for proposals to implement a new independent safe sport mechanism in 2020. In July 2021, Guilbeault announced that the Sport Dispute Resolution Centre of Canada (SDRCC) would receive up to $2.1 million to set up a new mechanism to oversee implementation of a new universal code of conduct in sport.
A senior government source with knowledge of Guilbeault’s portfolio concedes “other priorities required more attention” when he was heritage minister. Guilbeault’s legislative priorities at the time including confronting online abuse, digital streaming regulation and copyright reform.
The source, who spoke to CBC News on the condition of confidentiality, said the department’s priorities shifted when the pandemic hit in March 2020, just four months after Guilbeault was appointed minister. The source said they “totally understand” Duncan’s claim that more could have been done on safe sport.
“Since 2016, our government has worked with the sport community to advance a respectful sport culture and respond to calls for action,” Guilbeault’s office wrote in an email to CBC News.
Duncan said she felt her safe sport initiatives were not given the attention they deserved after she left the office.
“There was nothing in place. There was literally nothing. There didn’t even seem to be policies. Some had policies, some didn’t,” she said. “Where was the oversight? Where was the accountability?
“I think what we’ve seen over the last four years, and we’ve certainly seen this summer, is that there remains a hugely disappointing resistance to change.”
Current Sport Minister Pascale St-Onge was asked about Duncan’s claim that the government isn’t doing enough to protect athletes in the country.
“I can tell you that we’re taking it extremely seriously,” she told CBC News.
“That’s why we’ve invested $16 million in the last budget just to create the Office of the Sport Integrity Commissioner, because we felt it was so important to have that independent mechanism. I’m also making it mandatory for all nationally funded organizations to sign up with those before the next funding cycle.
“So any organization that hasn’t protected their athletes by signing up with OSIC will no longer receive the whole funding. That’s the strongest tool that I have. So yes, we are taking this extremely, extremely seriously.”
Just weeks after Duncan was named sport minister in January 2018, an investigation by CBC News revealed that at least 222 coaches involved in amateur sports over 20 years had been convicted of sex offences involving over 600 victims under age 18.
Duncan — a former gymnast who said she experienced emotional and psychological abuse herself as an athlete — said she was shaken by that report.
She introduced a number of measures — “broad strokes,” she calls them now — such as a third-party investigation unit and a national toll-free confidential helpline for victims and witnesses of abuse in sport. She also brought territorial and provincial sport ministers together in February 2019 to sign a declaration aimed at tackling and preventing harassment, abuse and discrimination in sport.
“I knew I had to address the grassroots. That’s where most athletes will spend their life,” Duncan said.
“Safe sport needs to be on every federal, provincial, territorial meeting year after year after year, with real goals and deliverables. I talked a lot about numbers. How can we address a problem if we don’t know what that problem looks like?”
Reluctance in government
In the 2019 federal budget, the government committed $30 million over five years “to enable Canadian sports organizations to promote accessible, ethical, equitable and safe sports.”
But Duncan says there was a climate of resistance to policies she was introducing, both within and outside the government.
“I don’t think people understood the problem. There wasn’t a lot of interest in Parliament. I asked what we were doing and I was told that we had to stop this safe sport stuff and get back to what sport was really about,” she said, referring to celebrating sporting achievements.
“My answer was, ‘So not protecting children?'”
CBC News reached out to the Prime Minister’s Office but they declined to comment.
Duncan said a three-page letter sent by Hockey Canada to one of her senior policy advisers reflects the tone of the opposition she faced.
The letter, first reported by the Canadian Press, was written by Glen McCurdie, then Hockey Canada’s vice-president of insurance and risk management. In it, McCurdie expressed concern about some of the policies Duncan was pursuing, including the third-party investigation unit.
Duncan said she never saw the letter four years ago and only read it for the first time this past summer, when the Hockey Canada controversy was playing out.
“Hockey Canada does not wish to be encumbered by a system or process that ties our hands and does not allow us to manage a situation as we deem necessary. We are simply asking that you keep this in mind as you continue to lead us in a collective Safe Sport strategy,” McCurdie wrote in the letter, which was also obtained by CBC News.
Duncan said she was frustrated in 2019 by Hockey Canada’s reluctance and remains just as frustrated today.
“Hockey Canada pushed back against a third party investigator and a safe sport helpline. Who would do that?” she said. “Who wouldn’t want a child to be able to pick up a phone and say, ‘I’ve had a problem’?
“I think people want to sweep this under the rug. I think people want to move on. And we can’t.”
In an email to CBC, Hockey Canada said the 2019 letter does not reflect the organization’s current thinking or direction.
“Hockey Canada recognizes that we need to do more to foster a safe and positive environment for all participants on and off the ice,” the organization wrote.
Hockey Canada said the organization participated in the government’s safe sport helpline and hired third-party investigators to look into the claims it received. Hockey Canada became a full signatory in October 2022 to the Office of the Sport Integrity Commission, which is now responsible for overseeing and investigating allegations of abuse in sport.
Canadian police chiefs speak out on death of Tyre Nichols beaten by Memphis, Tennofficers
Canadian police chiefs condemned on Friday the death of Tyre Nichols who was savagely beaten by Memphis, Tenn police during a traffic stop in the United States, saying the officers involved must be held accountable.
The condemnation of the actions that led to Tyre Nichols’ death came as authorities in Memphis, Tenn., released a video of what happened.
The footage shows officers holding Nichols down and striking him repeatedly as he screamed for his mother.
After the beating, officers milled about for several minutes while Nichols lay propped up against a car, then slumped onto the street.
Nichols died three days after the Jan. 7 confrontation. The officers, all of whom are Black, were charged Thursday with murder and other crimes.
Chief Myron Demkiw of the Toronto Police Service offered sincere condolences to Nichols’ family and friends. He said the actions of the officers in Memphis will have long-standing impacts on communities in Toronto and would have a disproportionate effect on some members of the Black community.
“I am profoundly saddened by the murder of Tyre Nichols in Memphis, Tennessee,” Demkiw said in a post on Twitter. “On behalf of the Toronto Police Service, I condemn the violent actions of the officers involved.”
The Ontario Association of Chiefs of Police called the circumstances of Nichols’ death “horrific and highly disturbing,” and offered condolences to his loved ones.
“(Officers’) duties must always be done in a manner that is transparent, professional, and upholds the high standards of policing as a profession,” the association said in a statement. “Every officer understands that they are accountable for their actions.”
The Ottawa Police Service said Nichols’ death and similar tragedies destabilize communities and undermine trust in police across North America.
“Nichols’ death, like so many before him, is tragic,” Ottawa police said. “We join in the calls for justice, and we support the steps being taken to fully investigate the incident and hold the individuals accountable.”
The chiefs of Peel police, Windsor police and Regina police also issued statements to condemn the actions of the officers charged in Nichols’ death.
Peel police chief Nishan Duraiappah said the death of Nichols was “deeply disturbing,” and that his thoughts were with the man’s family and community.
Windsor police chief Jason Bellaire said Nichols’ death and similar events affect “police credibility” globally, and it will take the police a long time to rebuild relationships and restore trust with the community.
He said his force will work with any community groups that want to plan peaceful protests in response to Nichols’ death.
Regina police chief Evan Bray called the death of Nichols “tragic and unnecessary” in a video posted on Twitter.
Bray said he reached out to leaders from his city’s Black community to express his sympathy and noted that Nichols’ death brings up “all kinds of heartache and trauma.”
The Edmonton Police Service called the death of Nichols a tragedy and said what happened in Memphis does not reflect police work in any form.
“There is no avoiding that the five officers, now charged with second-degree murder and other charges, were on duty when they committed this act,” the service said in an email.
“EPS (Edmonton Police Service) supports the swift and decisive action taken by the Memphis police in seeking justice for Mr. Nichols and his family.”
Given the likelihood of protests, Memphis Police Director Cerelyn Davis said she and other local officials decided it would be best to release the video later in the day, after schools were dismissed and people were home from work.
Nichols’ mother, RowVaughn Wells, warned supporters of the “horrific” nature of the video but pleaded for peaceful protests.
“I don’t want us burning up our city, tearing up the streets, because that’s not what my son stood for,” she said. “If you guys are here for me and Tyre, then you will protest peacefully.”
The officers each face charges of second-degree murder, aggravated assault, aggravated kidnapping, official misconduct and official oppression. Four of the five officers had posted bond and been released from custody by Friday morning, according to court and jail records.
Second-degree murder is punishable by 15 to 60 years in prison under Tennessee law.
As a precaution, Memphis-area schools cancelled all after-class activities and postponed an event scheduled for Saturday morning. Other early closures included the city power company’s community offices and the University of Memphis.
Davis said other officers are still being investigated for violating department policy. In addition, she said “a complete and independent review” will be conducted of the department’s specialized units, without providing further details.
Two fire department workers were also removed from duty over Nichols’ arrest.
— With files from The Associated Press.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 27, 2023.
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