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Will Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) Cut its Dividend? – The Motley Fool Canada

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Canadian bank stocks have been under considerable pressure since the WHO declared a coronavirus pandemic in March 2020. First quarter 2020 U.S. bank results indicated that there is a rocky road ahead for Canada’s banks. The third-largest lender Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX:BNS)(NYSE:BNS) recently reported its fiscal second-quarter 2020 results.

Better-than-expected earnings

Scotiabank’s second-quarter earnings plunged sharply. Net income of $1.3 billion was 41% lower than for the equivalent period in 2019. That can be blamed on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on Scotiabank’s operations and its push to build a cash buffer in anticipation of a sharp uptick in impaired loans and credit losses.

Scotiabank set aside a whopping $1.8 billion in provisions for credit losses, which is a massive 111% year-over-year increase. That was despite credit quality improving during the quarter, as highlighted by the bank’s gross impaired loans ratio falling 10 basis points to 0.78%.

Scotiabank, like its U.S. peers, is preparing for a significant downturn in the credit cycle and consequently has taken the opportunity to build massive cash reserves to absorb credit losses.

Despite the sharp decline in the bank’s bottom line, Scotiabank stock soared 7% over the last week. This is because Scotiabank’s earnings of $1 per share beat the analyst consensus estimate of $0.91 per share.

International banking woes

The worst performing of Scotiabank’s operations was its international business, which had become an important growth driver. International banking net income plunged to $185 million, almost a quarter of the $701 million reported a year earlier. This was driven by a combination of weaker revenue with net interest income falling 9% and fee revenue plunging a whopping 20%.

Provisions for credit losses ballooned 62% year over year to just over $1 billion, having a marked impact on international banking’s profitability. Scotiabank, despite the division’s 0.28% year-over-year reduction in its gross impaired loans ratio to 2.29%, is anticipating a substantial decline in credit quality across its Latin American operations.

Another factor that impacted international banking’s performance was a weaker net interest margin. Governments across the region have been reducing official interest rates to stimulate economic growth.

Scotiabank reported a dismal return on equity of 3.5% for international banking, which was almost a quarter of what it had been a year earlier. This indicates that profitability has collapsed and could very well worsen because of the poor economic outlook for Latin America with Scotiabank a top-10 rated bank in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Chile.

The region has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, and economies are expected to contract sharply over the coming year. That certainly doesn’t bode well for Scotiabank’s overall performance when Canada’s economic weakness is considered along with the risk of domestic housing crash.

Will the bank cut the dividend?

This raises the question as to whether Scotiabank’s dividend is safe. It, like its Big Five peers, has become an important source of income for many Canadians, particularly retirees.

Prior to the latest earnings, Scotiabank’s dividend of a very juicy 7% was sustainable with a conservative payout ratio of 52%. The ratio for the second quarter 2020 leapt to a worrying 90%. When it is considered that there is worse to come for Scotiabank, including a further decline in earnings, the ratio could easily exceed 100%.

Nonetheless, Scotiabank possesses the financial resources to sustain the dividend in such circumstances for a short period. That means a dividend cut at this time is not likely, although certainly don’t expect another dividend hike.

Foolish takeaway

Scotiabank’s latest results were better than expected. Despite the sharp earnings decline, it was able to squirrel away a sizable cash buffer to absorb an anticipated surge in credit losses. While there is worse ahead for Scotiabank, it does appear attractively valued, trading at less than one times book value and nine times projected earnings. The very tasty 7% yield appears safe for the time being.

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Fool contributor Matt Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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