With John Klingberg and Ryan Reaves, the Maple Leafs make two dicey bets in free agency

The Maple Leafs lost in five games to the Florida Panthers in the second round because they didn’t score enough goals.

In particular, their top players didn’t score enough, especially Auston Matthews and John Tavares, who were both held without a goal. The Leafs got contributions here and there from lower in the lineup, but not enough to cover up for the big guys, and almost nothing from the defence beyond Morgan Rielly.

The Leafs scored two goals or fewer in their final seven playoff games.

Which sort of explains GM Brad Treliving’s willingness to take a chance on John Klingberg, who had 21 points in 26 playoff games for Dallas once upon a time en route to the Stanley Cup Final.

The problem? That was a long time ago, more than three years, in fact. Klingberg’s stock has been on the decline since. He’ll be 31 in August. For the second consecutive summer, he drew only a one-year deal in free agency. He’s coming off another bumpy season that saw him struggle in both Anaheim and Minnesota.

The Leafs agreed to pay him $4.15 million on the cap anyway, albeit only for one year.

Ryan Reaves’ perplexing three-year deal on top of that makes for two questionable bets to start free agency for the Leafs.

Treliving said depth scoring remains a need. Why, then, did they add a 36-year-old who has produced the following numbers in his last 36 playoff games: zero goals and one assist, while averaging nine minutes per game?

Obviously, the Leafs did not sign Reaves to score goals or help the offence. Why exactly did they sign him? For personality, it seems. Toughness, too.

“There’s a presence to Ryan,” Treliving explained after day one of free agency. “The one thing, talking with the staff and just looking at this group, it’s a quiet group.”

Why did the Leafs sign Reaves? For intangibles, basically. Generally speaking, however, paying for intangibles is almost always a mistake, one that previous regimes in Toronto made regularly on July 1. Think Colton Orr, Jeff Finger, Mike Komisarek, David Clarkson. But it’s an even bigger mistake for this particular Leafs team, which, unlike those other squads, is trying to win the Stanley Cup right now.

It also feels like a misjudgment of what’s held this team back over the years.

More noise in the dressing room won’t solve the lack of finish and resolve from the stars and their supporting cast when it matters. Just like it didn’t when the Leafs had personalities like Joe Thornton, Jake Muzzin, Wayne Simmonds, Ryan O’Reilly and Jason Spezza around.

Let’s say Reaves does lighten things up, and maybe that has a trickle-down effect on the rest of the group. How exactly is he helping the Leafs on the ice?

Will he even be on the ice, or in the lineup period, in the playoffs? Can he help the Leafs in tangible terms in a series against the Lightning, Bruins or Panthers? Can he keep up?

Treliving thinks yes and lauded Reaves’ “physical presence.”

“He can still get on the forecheck, makes things difficult for the opposition, and it gives us a little bit of a different look on our lower lines,” the Leafs GM said.

Reaves will be 37 when the playoffs roll around next season. While he’s large, he’s not quick and won’t get any quicker. He’ll be 38 at playoff time in year two of the deal and 39 in year three. Why exactly did the Leafs give someone of his age and skillset a three-year contract?

Treliving said it’s what it took to keep Reaves from going elsewhere.

In each of the past few postseasons, the Leafs have seen older players, who were kept around for their intangible qualities, struggle to remain in the lineup and who were liabilities when they were out there. Think Kyle Clifford, Simmonds, Thornton. Mark Giordano, after a strong regular season, was barely playable last spring.

Spezza retired into the front office last summer, following a late-season string of healthy scratches.

Sheldon Keefe wanted it to work with all of them. Clifford and Simmonds both memorably played early against the Lightning in 2022. Both were tough. Both were intimidating. Both were leaders. It didn’t matter. They quickly lost their spots in the lineup.

There’s a very good chance things go the same way with Reaves, not just down the line but in year one.

Just last season, after only 12 games, the Rangers decided that Reaves could no longer be in their lineup. Why? They’d been outscored 6-1 when Reaves was on the ice, with an expected goals mark of 33 percent. Reaves became a frequent healthy scratch before he was dealt to the Wild.

Things improved for him in Minnesota, but not to the point of helping the Wild, who were eliminated in the first round in the playoffs.

No, Reaves isn’t making much ($1.35 million cap hit). But why commit a roster spot at all for an intangibles-only player at the end of his career?

If toughness and some combination of leadership and personality was an issue, why not address it, as the Leafs did at the trade deadline last season, with competitive players who can make a tangible difference in a playoff series?

Why not keep Noel Acciari around? Acciari got a three-year deal from Pittsburgh for slightly more money ($2 million cap hit) than Reaves. He at least brings some offence and other tools in his toolbox. He’s a hitting machine. He kills penalties. He can be on the ice defending a late lead. He’s responsible defensively.

Why not address the bottom of the lineup with Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Luke Glendening or Andrew Cogliano, veterans who can still play a little?

In signing Reaves and David Kämpf before him, the Leafs are now stuck with two bottom-six players who contribute little to no offence. And that will put even more pressure on the stars to produce in the postseason.

The Leafs still have to find a viable scoring threat to help replace Michael Bunting, who punched in 46 goals the past two seasons.

Keefe also won’t have any malleability with Reaves. He’ll either play on the fourth line or not at all.

That was part of the appeal with past additions like Acciari, Sam Lafferty, O’Reilly and even Calle Järnkrok. They were switchable parts for the Leafs’ coach. Reaves is not that.

Klingberg is another declining stock player who averaged under 17 minutes for the Wild in the playoffs. The ice was tilted badly in the wrong direction for both Minnesota (45 percent expected goals) and Anaheim (37 percent!) when Klingberg was on the ice during the regular season.

More than 200 NHL defencemen played at least 500 five-on-five minutes last season. None saw their team allow more expected goals per 60 minutes than Klingberg (3.84). In other words, Klingberg’s teams were giving up plenty of good looks when he was on the ice.

Now maybe there’s some Ducks-related chaos baked in there, but it’s not like things were great a year before in Dallas.

“John would be probably the first one to tell you it didn’t go exactly the way he wanted it to go last year,” Treliving said. “But he’s a really good player in this league. He can move the puck. He jumps up in the play.”

Added the Leafs GM: “He’s an elite offensive player in (the offensive) zone, so to me, he’s gonna bring us some more puck movement and hopefully some more production from the blue line.”

The Leafs could use more juice that way. From Jake McCabe to Giordano and Justin Holl, the Leafs had all kinds of trouble moving the puck in the playoffs. After Rasmus Sandin was dealt to Washington, it was really only Rielly providing a constant spark of creativity on offence.

But will it all be canceled out by Klingberg’s deficiencies at the other end?

Klingberg doesn’t solve the Leafs’ need (which they may still address) for the kind of impact defenceman who can tussle against top lines in the playoffs, nor does he bring the kind of heft and snarl that Luke Schenn delivered this past spring.

He proved erratic for the Wild after his trade from Anaheim, and they had no interest in re-signing him.

The Leafs are betting not on the upside of a younger player, but that Klingberg returns to the form of several years ago. The Ducks, albeit as a rebuilding team, made a similar bet last summer. They hoped to turn Klingberg into juicy assets but got back only a fourth-round pick and prospect at the deadline.

Reaves, meanwhile, will be among the older players in the league next season.

Two dicey bets for the Leafs as a crucial offseason kicks into full swing.

Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference, and Cap Friendly

(Top photo by Chase Agnello-Dean/NHLI via Getty Images)

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