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Economy

Won’s Rally Nears Final Leg as Signs of Weaker Economy Mount

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(Bloomberg) — The Korean won’s near 17% rally since late October may be reaching its final stages as signs of a weaker economic outlook contrast with optimism over other emerging-market peers.

Falling demand for semi-conductors is set to weigh on exports at a time when alarm bells are sounding about South Korea losing a global chip war. The focus will be on fourth-quarter growth data due Jan. 26 after the Bank of Korea chief suggested last week economic concerns are surfacing, raising speculation the tightening cycle is winding down.

Along with other headwinds such as the current account deficit and technical factors, this doesn’t leave much scope for the won to gain and primes investors for a potential shift to other currencies such as the Thai baht. The Korean currency was the best performer in Asia in the fourth quarter.

Read: Global Inflows Amid China Reopening Put Baht in a Sweet Spot

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While the Korean currency may benefit from the Chinese economy picking up, sluggish exports are going to drag on the won, said Min Joo Kang, an economist at ING Bank NV. “For the near-term, probably appreciation elements will drive a stronger USD/KRW,” she said.

Exports fell almost 10% in December, with the chip-making giant reporting its first annual trade deficit since 2008. In addition, Min expects Korea to post a current-account gap this quarter, putting more pressure on the won.

ING sees the won ending the quarter at 1,230 versus the dollar, compared with 1,235.55 on Friday.

The won has strengthened, along with emerging-market peers, from late October on signs the Federal Reserve may be nearing its terminal rate with US inflation slowing. Rising equity inflows amid improving risk sentiment aided by China’s re-opening also helped.

Risk Sentiment

However, these stock inflows may moderate, or even turn into outflows if risk sentiment deteriorates further on weaker US earnings or rising economic concerns. Other than weaker exports, Korea is also struggling with a property-market downturn.

Other positives for the won may be fading as Bank of Korea seems to have either reached, or be nearing the end of its rate hike cycle. After the BOK has raised its rate by 300 basis points in 18 months, Governor Rhee Chang-yong said policymakers should now consider the impact on the economy and financial stability.

The won’s rally has left it in overbought territory according to slow stochastics, a momentum indicator. Fibonacci support at 1,219, the 61.8% retracement of its January 2021 to October 2022 rally, presents a big hurdle.

“There is room for more won strength during the remainder of the first quarter, but given how fast the currency has gained recently, the scope of the rally won’t be too big,” said An Young-jin, an economist at SK Securities Co., who sees USD/KRW at 1,220 at the end of March.

Here are the key Asian economic data due this week:

  • Monday, Jan. 23: BOJ minutes to December meeting
  • Tuesday, Jan. 24: Australia business confidence, New Zealand performance services index, Japan PMIs, Thailand customs trade balance
  • Wednesday, Jan. 25: Australia 4Q CPI, New Zealand 4Q CPI, Bank of Thailand policy decision, Singapore CPI
  • Thursday, Jan. 26: BOJ summary of opinions to January meeting, South Korea 4Q GDP Philippine trade balance and 4Q GDP, Singapore industrial production
  • Friday, Jan. 27: Australia 4Q PPI, New Zealand business confidence, South Korea business surveys, Tokyo CPI
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Economy

Parallel economy: How Russia is defying the West’s boycott

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When Moscow resident Zoya, 62, was planning a trip to Italy to visit her daughter last August, she saw the perfect opportunity to buy the Apple Watch she had long dreamed of owning.

Officially, Apple does not sell its products in Russia.

The California-based tech giant was one of the first companies to announce it would exit the country in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

But the week before her trip, Zoya made a surprise discovery while browsing Yandex.Market, one of several Russian answers to Amazon, where she regularly shops.

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Not only was the Apple Watch available for sale on the website, it was cheaper than in Italy.

Zoya bought the watch without a moment’s delay.

The serial code on the watch that was delivered to her home confirmed that it was manufactured by Apple in 2022 and intended for sale in the United States.

“In the store, they explained to me that these are genuine Apple products entering Russia through parallel imports,” Zoya, who asked to be only referred to by her first name, told Al Jazeera.

“I thought it was much easier to buy online than searching for a store in an unfamiliar country.”

Nearly 1,400 companies, including many of the most internationally recognisable brands, have since February 2022 announced that they would cease or dial back their operations in Russia in protest of Moscow’s military aggression against Ukraine.

But two years after the invasion, many of these companies’ products are still widely sold in Russia, in many cases in violation of Western-led sanctions, a months-long investigation by Al Jazeera has found.

Aided by the Russian government’s legalisation of parallel imports, Russian businesses have established a network of alternative supply chains to import restricted goods through third countries.

The companies that make the products have been either unwilling or unable to clamp down on these unofficial distribution networks.

 

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Economy

Japanese government maintains view that economy is in moderate recovery – ForexLive

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Can falling interest rates improve fairness in the economy? – The Globe and Mail

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The ‘poor borrower’ narrative rules in media coverage of the Bank of Canada and high interest rates, and that’s appropriate.

A lot of people have been financially slammed by the rate hikes of the past couple of years, which have made it much more expensive to carry a mortgage, lines of credit and other borrowing. The latest from the Bank of Canada suggests rate cuts will come as soon as this summer, which on the whole would be a welcome development. It’s not just borrowers who need relief – the boarder economy has slowed to a crawl because of high borrowing costs.

But high rates are also a big win for some people. Specifically, those who have little or no debt and who have a significant amount of money sitting in savings products and guaranteed investment certificates. The country’s most well-off people, in other words.

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Lower rates will mean diminished returns for savers and less interest paid by borrowers. It’s a stretch to say lower rates will improve financial inequality, but they do add a little more fairness to our financial system.

Wealth inequality is often presented as the chasm between well-off people able to pay for houses, vehicles, trips and high-end restaurant meals and those who are driving record use of food banks and living in tent cities. High interest rates and inflation have given us more nuance in wealth inequality. People fortunate enough to have bought houses in recent years are staggering as they try to manage mortgage payments that have risen by hundreds of dollars a month. You can see their struggles in rising numbers of late payments and debt defaults.

Rates are expected to fall in a measured, gradual way, which means their impact on financial inequality won’t be an instant gamechanger. But if the Bank of Canada cuts 0.25 of a percentage point off the overnight rate in June and again in July, many borrowers will start noticing how much less interest they’re paying, and savers will find themselves earning less.


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Rob’s personal finance reading list

Snowballs and avalanches

A look at two strategies for paying off debt – the debt avalanche and the debt snowball. I’ll go with the avalanche.

How not to ruin your kitchen countertop

Anyone who has renovated a kitchen lately knows how expensive stone countertops can be. Look after yours by protecting it from a few common kitchen items.

What you need to know about stock market corrections

A helpful explanation of stock market corrections. It seems an opportune time to look at corrections, given how volatile stocks have been lately. Like scouts, investors should always be prepared.

Put that snack back

Food inflation requires more careful grocery shopping. Here’s a roundup of food products – cookies, snacks, ice cream – that don’t taste as good as they used to. Food companies have always adjusted their recipes from time to time. Is this happening more because of inflation’s impact on raw material prices? A U.S. list – most products are available are familiar to Canadians, too.


Ask Rob

Q: I have Tangerine children’s accounts for my kids. Can you suggest a better alternative?

A: The rate on the Tangerine children’s account is 0.8 per cent, which actually compares well to the big banks and their comparable accounts. For kids aged 13 and up, check out something new called the JA Money Card.

Do you have a question for me? Send it my way. Sorry I can’t answer every one personally. Questions and answers are edited for length and clarity.


Tools and guides

A comprehensive guide on how to build a good credit score.


In the social sphere

Social Media: An offbeat way of fighting high food costs

Watch: Is now the hardest time ever to buy a home?

Money-Free Zone: Singer-songwriter Maggie Rogers has a new album called Don’t Forget Me and it’s generating some buzz because it’s a great listen. Smooth vocals and a laid back countryish vibe that hits a faster pace on one of my favourite cuts, Drunk.


More PF from The Globe

– He keeps ‘a few thousand in crisp new bills’ at home – is that a good idea?

– The pension pivot: Employers recognizing that workers need help with debt as much as retirement

– Her bond ETF is ‘a dud and not promising at all’ – should she sell?

– Despite high fees, Canadians remain perplexingly loyal to mutual funds. Here’s why


More Rob Carrick and money coverage

Subscribe to Stress Test on Apple podcasts or Spotify. For more money stories, follow me on Instagram and Twitter, and join the discussion on my Facebook page. Millennial readers, join our Gen Y Money Facebook group.

Even more coverage from Rob Carrick:

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