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World Economy Looks to Dodge Stagflation Rut as Outlook Perks Up – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — The world’s economic outlook is perking up as growth proves more resilient and inflation is set to cool faster than previously expected in many countries, the OECD said.

While conflicts in the Middle East or more persistent price increases could still knock the economy from its more stable footing, the Paris-based organization said risks are becoming “better balanced.”  

The OECD raised the 2024 global growth forecast to 3.1% — from 2.9% in February — with notable improvements in its expectations for the US, China and India. The expansion should continue at 3.2% next year.

The brighter outlook indicates the world economy looks to avoid entering a stagflationary rut — a period of sluggish growth and rising unemployment mixed with elevated inflation — even if the pace of expansion won’t return soon to the 3.4% average in the years before the pandemic and energy crisis.

Inflation will be softer than the OECD forecast three months ago, with the exception of the US, where it now expects prices to rise 2.5% this year instead of 2.2%. Still, it said US policy makers should be able to reduce interest rates in the second half of the year.

On Wednesday in Washington, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept hopes alive for a rate cut in 2024 while acknowledging that a burst of inflation has reduced policymakers’ confidence that price pressures are ebbing.

The OECD’s assessment corroborates the slightly more positive views of other international institutions, including the International Monetary Fund which also lifted its forecasts last month.

Read More: Factories Around the World Are Slowly Cranking Into Gear Again

“Cautious optimism has begun to take hold in the global economy, despite modest growth and the persistent shadow of geopolitical risks,” OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli said. “Inflation is easing faster than expected, labor markets remain strong with unemployment at or near record lows.”

In the recovery, the OECD said divergence between strong growth in the US and a more sluggish Europe will persist in the near term, creating a “mixed macroeconomic landscape.” That will translate into differing paces of interest rate cuts, with the European Central Bank set to begin easing before the Fed. 

Still, the OECD said monetary authorities should be cautious because conflicts could push up energy prices and inflation, and the softening of cost pressures may also be slower than expected in services. 

“Monetary policy needs to remain prudent to ensure that underlying inflationary pressures are durably contained,” the OECD said. 

For governments, it said the improving economic backdrop provides the opportunity to tackle bloated debt burdens that risk swelling further as higher borrowing costs feed through. It also cautioned countries will face growing spending demands from aging populations, climate change and needs to bolster defense. 

“In the medium and longer term, the fiscal position is worrying,” Lombardelli said. “A robust medium-term approach to containing spending, building revenues, and focusing policy efforts on growth-enhancing structural reforms are all needed.”

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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