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Worst of the worst: The real estate disasters of 2020 – The Real Deal

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Empty offices, shut down retail stores, closing restaurants and literal fires are among the biggest real estate disasters of 2020. (Getty)

Empty offices, shut down retail stores, closing restaurants and literal fires are among the biggest real estate disasters of 2020. (Getty)

Vacant offices. Shuttered restaurants. Empty hotels.

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The pressure on real estate was relentless this year as the pandemic took down struggling sectors — and some healthy ones, too. Except for a few blessed sectors, such as industrial space (hello, Amazon!), fiascos were unavoidable.

To explain the catastrophe that was 2020, we picked 10 of the biggest real estate disasters to highlight.

Where is everybody?

Say this for the Partnership for New York City: It is no cheerleader.

The business group released surveys laying out in stark detail how empty city office buildings are. Attendance has risen — from horrendous to merely abysmal. First 8 percent, then 10 percent, then 13. President Donald Trump called Gotham a “ghost town” and his lie trackers didn’t argue.

But every office market struggled as the virus surged and work-from-home proved productive and popular. Dallas barely has 4 in 10 office workers showing up, but guess what? It’s the No. 1 market in the U.S.

“We need to get through a very difficult point now,” said Anthony Malkin, chairman and CEO of New York office REIT Empire State Realty. “We probably won’t see the bottom until the first quarter of 2022.”

Restaurants’ perfect storm

The restaurant business began 2020 stronger than ever. Then came a perfect storm: a deadly virus that spreads like wildfire when people gather indoors without masks. A month later New York limited service to takeout and delivery, triggering mass layoffs.

Reopening has been marked by caution and reversals, and as of October, 88 percent of NYC eateries still could not pay full rent. A month later, 54 percent statewide said they would likely not survive another six months without federal relief.

The experience has been similar elsewhere, including L.A., where even outdoor dining was banned to tamp down a second wave.

A Penney for your retail chain

For brick-and-mortar stores, the pandemic piled on to a retail apocalypse triggered by the e-commerce boom. Shutdowns and infection fears accelerated online shopping’s gains, and 25,000 stores were expected to close as a result of Covid.

Retail giants were among them: J.C. Penney filed for Chapter 11 in mid-May and has since closed 150 locations. (Simon Property Group and Brookfield Property Partners are now trying to salvage it.)

Other retail bankruptcies included Neiman Marcus, Ascena Retail Group and GNC, while many other stores, including Macy’s and Gap, pulled out of malls and pared down their store counts. Home improvement stores such as Home Depot and Lowe’s did thrive in 2020, but for the foreseeable future, it’s Amazon’s world.

Fire in the whole

Covid vaccines will solve many of real estate’s problems in the next year or two, but not the wildfires that have increasingly plagued the West Coast in recent years. And this fire season was the worst one yet in California.

Unfortunately, it is not clear what will keep the seemingly annual blazes at bay. Global temperatures will continue to increase, fostering conditions that put huge swaths of California, Oregon and Washington at risk. Some homeowners are seeing annual fire insurance premiums rise to tens of thousands of dollars, if they can get a policy at all.

One strategy would be to return large, fire-prone areas to nature, concentrate development in urban areas and relocate millions of people, something the real estate industry, especially in California, has never been inclined to do, let alone done.

Heading For Zero

When shaky sectors began to crumble under the pandemic’s weight, that meant trouble for New York’s oversaturated luxury condo market and the developers who created it. If one firm has emerged as the poster child for big bets and bad timing, it would be HFZ Capital Group.

HFZ has faced a reckoning across its multibillion-dollar Manhattan portfolio, with $300 million in collections piling up from its investors, lenders, contractors and other vendors. Sales have dragged and construction has stalled at the XI, its flagship project along the High Line. Making matters worse, the firm’s principals are personally liable for some loans.

While HFZ may be the first big Manhattan developer at risk of losing it all in the pandemic, it is far from alone when it comes to financial woes. Slow sales and a tight market for financing have pushed a number of major projects to the brink of distress and in some cases into foreclosure auctions.

And the supply problem shows no signs of dissipating. Unsold new-development units in Manhattan will take 8.7 years to sell, according to appraiser Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel.

Anbang, you’re dead

Hotels are hurting like never before, so picking the hospitality sector’s worst fiasco of 2020 is like shooting fish in a barrel. But some fish are bigger than others. In one of the largest real estate deals undone by the pandemic, plans by Chinese insurer Anbang to sell a $5.8 billion luxury hotel portfolio collapsed as the coronavirus crushed the hospitality sector.

The prospective buyer, South Korea’s Mirae Asset Global Investments, pointed to non-pandemic factors as justification for backing out, including a bizarre deed fraud scheme involving a trademark troll, obscure Delaware arbitration laws and possibly high-ranking members of the Chinese Communist Party.

Not that it mattered in the end: In allowing Mirae to terminate the deal, a judge noted that contract terms required Anbang to operate the hotels in the “ordinary course of business” — which the pandemic had rendered impossible.

Pain All Year

Early this year, Yoel Goldman’s All Year Management was lining up a pair of big deals to alleviate the Brooklyn developer’s cash flow problems: a $675 million refinancing for its Denizen Bushwick luxury rental complex, and a $300 million-plus multifamily portfolio sale. Then the pandemic struck.

The portfolio deal seemed to fall through in May, then was renegotiated in July, but the buyers — led by investor David Werner — missed a deposit in September. Meanwhile, the refinancing deal earned provisional ratings from a ratings agency, but that loan didn’t close either. Things came to a head in November when All Year skipped a payment on its Tel Aviv-listed bonds and postponed its financial reporting, sending its bond prices plunging.

The firm is now in default on numerous loans, and the mezzanine lender on its prized Denizen Bushwick property has scheduled a UCC foreclosure sale for February. And on the final day of the year, it was reported that All Year defaulted on a $66 million loan for a property in Gowanus and, having failed to file third-quarter reports and make bond payments, would be delisted from the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange.

Take these jobs and…

The death of the Industry City rezoning reaffirmed local City Council members’ power and willingness to kill major development projects, and reopened real estate’s wounds from losing Amazon’s HQ2.

More than five years after unveiling its plans for a $1 billion commercial hub, the Industry City development team withdrew an application that would have allowed more retail, academic and commercial space, and instead will pursue permitted uses, such as a last-mile distribution center.

Local Council member Carlos Menchaca and other elected officials in Brooklyn opposed the project, arguing that its thousands of new jobs would accelerate gentrification and displacement in Sunset Park. Arguments that the city desperately needs jobs and tax revenue did not move Menchaca, who — far from being chastened — announced his candidacy for mayor.

Eviction benediction

When shutdowns crippled the economy, landlords braced for an eviction moratorium of perhaps three months. Instead, evictions have been on hold for more than nine.

After being peeled back slightly over the summer, this week the ban was broadened and extended until March 1, with an additional two months for tenants who declare hardship. Landlords say lawmakers are encouraging nonpayment of rent, which could cost them their buildings.

Tenants and their lobbyists will try to carry their political momentum into fights next year for taxes on second homes, universal rent control and canceling rent altogether.

High price of admission

It’s been a difficult year for many in real estate, but especially for Bob Zangrillo. An initial partner in the multibillion Magic City Innovation project in Miami, Zangrillo was charged in the college admissions scandal dubbed Varsity Blues. Zangrillo is also battling allegations by the Federal Trade Commission that a company he chaired was running scam websites that mimicked government sites. Zangrillo is fighting all of the charges, but other developers have already distanced themselves from him. In February, Avra Jain said Zangrillo is out at her Miami River project.

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The biggest real estate mistakes you can make, according to the Property Brothers

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Drew and Jonathan Scott of HGTV’s new series “Backed by the Bros” — also known as the Property Brothers — spoke with Quartz for the latest installment of our “What’s Next for…?” video series.

Watch the interview above and check out the transcript below. The transcript of this conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

ANDY MILLS (AM): Interest rates are now above 7%. What effect is this having on the work you guys are doing and what do you see is next in the real estate industry?

DREW SCOTT (DS): A lot of crying. That’s what’s happening. Even the tough thing is anybody who’s looking to, you know, refi or anybody who’s looking to pull equity out of their home, it’s a tough time because you’re not getting what you wanted with the high rates. Granted, it looks like things are coming down a little bit, but this has been forcing people to try and find other ways to create more opportunity to get access to money like converting a garage into an ADU, having a renter in there. A lot of people are becoming landlords for the first time in their lives

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JONATHAN SCOTT (JS): And in reality there’s still a huge opportunity for people if they’re looking to invest. They’re looking to, you know, pull a little bit of money out. 7% is not bad. It’s not great, but it’s not bad. But it is sort of at that tipping point where you want to be a little more cautious with what you’re putting your money toward and how much money, how much leveraging you’re doing. And so that’s what we say. There’s opportunity to do well. There’s opportunity to make money in real estate. You just have to be careful.

DS: I just cry for those people who had locked in at like 3% and now they’re coming back out and they’re like, oh God, it’s over doubling right now. But you know, c’est la vie, you just gotta be careful with real estate.

Read more: Mortgage rates are rising again as inflation fears mount

AM: Yeah. So for the folks that bought at 3%, they’re saying that they’re not selling. How will this or how is this affecting them?

DS: Well, that’s the thing. The people that can’t afford a seven or 8% interest rate, they’re gonna have to sell if they can’t afford it. Because you can’t just be like, ‘No, my term is up and I refuse to get a higher interest rate loan.’ You have to finance somehow, unless you have cash to-

JS: Or a money tree in your backyard.

DS: A money tree in your backyard. Yeah.

JS: We saw that happen back in 2008. We saw that happen. There are some people who just over-leverage and they don’t realize that this is when it becomes a problem when your mortgage is up for real and your rate is going up. And so you have to always give yourself that little bit of a pad to make sure that you’re covered.

DS: That’s what our whole new show Backed by the Bros, it’s all about this. It’s all about people who have wanted to try and get into real estate a little bit more. They want to invest, they want to try and provide more for their family. And they get in over their heads because they thought real estate investment is pretty straightforward. ‘I watched it on HGTV, I can do it.’ And so they jump in and all of a sudden they’re over leveraged and they need help to get out.

JS: One of the clients put a hundred grand on their credit card so that they could service the debt they needed to for this property. And we’re like, at what rate? And it was like insane double digits. I’m like, you’re, you are gonna lose everything. And literally it was one of the couples, they had already spent their kids’ college fund their own personal savings. They were totally beeped. Yeah. And so we had to come in and we really, we put our reputation on the line. We use all our resources and we get the project done so they can start having that money come back in.

AM: Yeah. Backed by the Bros on HGTV June 5th.

JS: Oh, wow. Yes. You’ve done research.

DS: You know that off the top of your head. June 5th, 9:00 PM HGTV. But it’s fun for us just to find different ways to inspire people. And I love that people want to get into real estate. I love that people want to try and create more opportunities for themselves. And I also like the idea, you know, with the housing crisis that if you’re looking, whatever city you’re in, there are usually incentives that are helping people get into additional revenue through an ADU through an auxiliary dwelling unit. Having tenants, it’s a great way to sort of offset the crisis as well as help people earn more money.

JS: And there’s a way to have a hell of a lot of fun while you’re doing it. We’re not in this business to use complicated design terms and just bore people that, look, we wanna have fun. We wanna show people that you can really find passion in real estate, but you also have to make sure you’re being smart.

DS: Wait, is ADU a complicated design term?

JS: Yeah. Marginal.

AM: What’s that mean?

DS: It’s like a rental suite if you have like an auxiliary dwelling unit.

AM: Oh yeah.

DS: But it’s a fancy way of saying having a renter turn your garage into something you can rent out.

AM: Gotcha. You guys are seeing people turn in their garages into apartments?

JS: There’s a huge housing crisis all across the country, particularly in the major metropolis cities. And so I do believe that the solution beside finding ways to build new projects, multi-family projects and affordable housing, converting your ADUs, so people putting in basement rental units, people putting in garage conversions, building above their garage for a rental unit. All of these things are incredibly helpful when it comes to solving the housing crisis. And you also like a lot of people, ‘cause real estate is so expensive today, especially in places like New York and Los Angeles, imagine having that additional income coming in for you, how it can offset your costs, your bills, your taxes, everything. It’s pretty incredible.

AM: In Backed by the Bros, you guys are looking at a lot of troubled investments. So you mentioned credit cards being one of the mistakes you can make. What’s another mistake you guys are seeing over and over again?

DS: Well, we constantly, with a lot of the different episodes that we have of different families and investors that we worked with, they’re jumping in before they have any sort of a plan. One homeowner bought all of the appliances and cabinets and everything she could use for a project before she even had the house and knew what she was doing with it. So in the end, she had stuff that was not ideal and she just tried to make it work. Well, you’re not gonna get your optimal rent if you have a suboptimal place for somebody to rent.

JS: Also, whenever I hear somebody say, I’m gonna run my own construction project, I’ll GC myself instantly, I’m like, red flag. Yeah. Because if you have never GC’d before, you have no clue what you’re doing. And as soon as one of your subs falls out, everything slows down, comes to a crashing halt. And so you got, you gotta be realistic. Hire professionals to come in. You’re gonna pay a little bit more for some of this stuff, but it’s worth it in the end because you will save money.

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How real estate commission changes could affect buyers and sellers

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Starting in July, the real estate industry is bracing for a sweeping shake-up thanks to a $418 million settlement offered by the National Association of Realtors to overhaul its long-entrenched commission structure for agents and pay compensation to the sellers and real estate brokerages who sued.

The NAR got a further blow on April 5, when a federal court cleared the way for the Justice Department to reopen an antitrust probe into the group and its rules regarding home-sale commissions.

While the settlement awaits final approval later in the year, a preliminary sign-off by a federal judge on Tuesday means that the outcome is highly likely. In addition, the NAR has already started planning to change some of its policies starting this summer. Although these will likely affect home buyers more than sellers, both sides will have to make some adjustments, including how they work with agents.

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Calgary’s homes market expected to see strong price growth

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Calgary’s already hot resale real estate market is forecast to keep booming for the rest of the year, a new report on price growth suggests. The recent Royal LePage report predicted that the average price of a home in Calgary will jump eight per cent by year’s end, capping off another year of strong growth.

Yet the current real estate boom is different from past ones, says a local realtor.

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Article content“The lack of supply has driven prices upwards,” says Corinne Lyall, broker/owner of Royal LePage Benchmark.

While short supply is not all that different from past boom markets, a key reason for low inventory is, she adds.

“Interest rates having increased in the last two years negatively affected homeowners,” Lyall says.

Typically as prices rise, move-up buyers list their home, but that is not happening to the same extent this time.

“Many may not want to move because they may still be holding onto a low interest rate for their mortgage,” Lyall adds.

Many are likely reluctant to sell because they are locked into fixed-rate mortgages at about two per cent compared with the current market fixed rates at about five per cent.

In turn, they have low motivation to move until rates move lower, she notes.

The overall low supply paired with rising demand from record migration to the city factor into Royal LePage’s prediction that the average price could reach $716,580 by the end of 2024. Already, the average price has grown nearly 10 per cent by the end of March, versus the same time last year, to about $674,000.

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Article contentDemand for single-family detached homes remains a notable factor in the market, with Royal LePage highlighting that the average price in March was $774,000, an increase of about 10 per cent year over year.

Other segments are seeing rising demand, too, in part because single-family homes are increasingly pricey, and affordable ones are in short supply, Lyall says.

To that end, the Royal LePage study notes the average condominium price by the end of March was $264,800, up nearly nine per cent from the same time last year. Calgary Real Estate Board statistics from March also reflect rising demand for apartment and row. Both saw the highest percentage gains in benchmark price year over year.

Apartments grew more than 17 per cent to $337,700, while row increased more than 20 per cent to reach $448,700.

All segments are seeing higher prices amid dwindling supply and high demand, marking a shift in focus on affordability amid higher borrowing costs, Lyall says.

Still, single-family detached homes remain the most active segment, accounting for about 44 per cent of all sales in March. Its share is decreasing as prices rise. As of mid-April, for example, the average price was $793,713, up 10 per cent year over year, according to CREB.

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Article content“It’s sort of a chicken and the egg thing,” says realtor Mark Neustaedter with eXp Realty in Calgary.

Inventory is low because of high demand, but it is not increasing because sellers worry about being able to find a home due to low inventory, he further explains.

New listings have been rising, up nearly 13 per cent for all housing types, CREB mid-April numbers show, but active listings have fallen 17 per cent.

Notably in March, housing supply fell 29 per cent to less than one month, the lowest level in more than a decade. Although far below the all-time record of 4,107 transactions in March 2022, the 2,664 resales this year still were the fourth highest strongest for March since 2010.

Yet even amid a strong seller’s market, price still matters because borrowing costs remain elevated, Neustaedter notes.

“Over-priced homes will still not sell, even in this hot market.”

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