On Friday, the NHL had it’s annual Draft Lottery to determine which team will get to draft the first overall pick in 2020. The consensus first overall pick, Alexis Lafreniere, was on the broadcast (via video call) and sat there for 30 minutes only to still not know which team is going to pick him!
The Ottawa Senators won the third overall pick (though it felt like a loss since they are picking third and fifth even though their pick odds were second- and third-best in the lottery).
The Los Angeles Kings moved up to take the second spot and the chance to draft sure-fire a franchise center in Quinton Byfield.
And then the first overall pick went to…
SECAUCUS, NEW JERSEY – JUNE 26: National Hockey League Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly announces draft positions during Phase 1 of the 2020 NHL Draft Lottery on June 26, 2020 at the NHL Network’s studio in Secaucus, New Jersey.Photo by Bruce Bennett/NHLI via Getty Images
THE NHL?!?! No, almost, kinda. It went to one of the Return to Play teams that has yet to be determined. Once the Play-In round happens, the eight losers will be thrown into a second lottery where they’ll all have equal chances at landing the first overall pick.
The Colorado Avalanche are not among these teams eligible as they finished high enough in the Conference to earn a bye through the Play-In, one of eight teams in the league to do so.
So when the NHL starts playing games and the middle 16 teams in the league are fighting for their playoff lives and a chance to play the top eight teams in the league, they’ll have in their head, “if we lose, we get a pretty good shot at a top-tier left winger.”
That seems like quite a conundrum for teams and is a pretty bad look for the NHL. You don’t want incentive for teams to lose.
And yet here it is. So what should teams do?
The Odds
Dom L. of The Athletic has a statistical model of the NHL and has created odds for each Play-In team to win the first overall pick. It’s their odds of losing to their Play-In opponent multiplied by their odds for the lottery, 12.5%. As you can see, the Blue Jackets and Leafs are on opposite ends of the chart because Dom has the Leafs as major favorites in their series.
Dom also has odds for who’s most likely to win the Stanley Cup. In this one, Tampa Bay is the heavy favorite and Colorado is down in ninth. Roughly speaking, the Avalanche have poor odds against who they’re most likely to play in the second and fourth rounds. He doesn’t think they match up well against the East. Again, you can see who the Avalanche are likely to play against in this article here.
Pros to Tanking
So for a team like the Leafs, the odds of winning the Cup or getting Lafreniere is about equal. 5% vs. 4.5%. For the Columbus Blue Jackets, it’s almost 0% to 8%. And during a pandemic, does a team even want to go through a long, unlikely, and potentially harmful slog through the playoffs if they can sit at home and improve their team massively with a few lottery balls? Every single team on that first list could use a star left winger (or Quinton Byfield if they’re getting wild).
Better odds of the first overall pick then of the Cup
Reduces COVID-19 health risks
Just need to win one lottery vs. four rounds of playoffs
Cons to Tanking
I don’t know the specific rules behind how the Host City system is going to work, and I don’t think the NHL knows either. I’ve tried to find out if eliminated teams will be allowed to go home or if they’ll be stuck in the bubble until the Stanley Cup is awarded. There are some pros to this, for example at least they’ll have someone in attendance. The Eastern Conference eliminated teams cheering on the Western Conference champion (the Avalanche). For that, I don’t completely know if teams would be allowed to go home and would therefore be safer than in a hockey bubble where hundreds, or maybe over a thousand people are interacting with each other.
As for the “integrity of the game,” every single hockey player has been hardwired to win, to not tank or intentionally lose. In the rare cases this has been done, it’s been a major scandal. I doubt any coach or player would be on board, even if the GM is salivating at the first overall pick. It would be hard to coerce players into losing on purpose.
No player would ever do it
GM would get flamed for proposing it
It’s possible teams would have to remain in the bubble even after eliminated
I think we’re going to get a lot of finger-pointing and chaos after the Play-In round when we find out the winners and losers. The lack of talent discrepancy among most of the teams in the Play-In plus the classic hockey randomness factor, there’s going to be a lot of interesting teams in the mix for the first overall pick. Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately), none of them will be the Avalanche.
Poll
Which would you rather win this year if you were a Play-In team?
The past weekend of football was all about the favourites.
The favoured teams went 13-1 straight up and 10-4 against the spread in the NFL. In college football, the three most teams bet at the BetMGM Sportsbook in terms of number of bets and money all won and covered. All three were favourites.
Trends of the Week
The three most bet college teams that won and covered on Saturday were Ohio State (-3.5) vs. Penn State, Indiana (-7.5) at Michigan State and Oregon (-14.5) at Michigan. Penn State has now lost seven straight home games as underdogs. The Nittany Lions were up 10-0 in the first quarter and were 3.5-point favourites at the time. The Buckeyes won 17-10.
In the NFL, the three most bet teams in terms of number of bets and money were the Washington Commanders (-4) at the New York Giants, the Detroit Lions (-2.5) at the Green Bay Packers and the Buffalo Bills (-6) vs. the Miami Dolphins. All three teams won, but only two of the three covered the spread as Buffalo beat Miami 30-27.
When it came to the players with the most bets to score a touchdown on Sunday, only two of the five reached the end zone — Chase Brown (-125) and Taysom Hill (+185). David Montgomery (-140), Brian Robinson Jr. (+110) and AJ Barner (+500) did not score.
Upsets of the Week
The biggest upset in the NFL was the Carolina Panthers coming from behind to beat the New Orleans Saints 23-22. New Orleans closed as a 7-point favourite and took in 76% of the bets and 79% of the money in against-the-spread betting. The Saints fired head coach Dennis Allen following the loss. They have now lost seven straight games after starting the year 2-0.
Arguably the biggest upset in college football was South Carolina beating No. 10 Texas A&M 44-20 at home. Texas A&M closed as a 2.5-point favourite and took in 59% of the bets and 58% of the money.
NEW YORK – Washington Capitals left-wing Alex Ovechkin, Carolina Hurricanes centre Martin Necas and Pittsburgh Penguins centre Sidney Crosby have been named the NHL’s three stars of the week.
Ovechkin had a league-leading five goals and nine points in four games.
The 39-year-old Capitals captain has 14 points in 11 games this season, and his 860 career goals are just 34 shy of Wayne Gretzky’s record.
Necas shared the league lead with nine points (three goals, six assists) in three games.
Crosby factored on seven of the Penguins’ eight total goals scoring four goals and adding three assists in three appearances. The 37-year-old Penguins captain leads his team with 14 points (five goals, nine assists) in 13 games this season.
Crosby and Ovechkin, longtime rivals since entering the league together in 2005-06, will meet for the 70th time in the regular season and 95th time overall when Pittsburgh visits Washington on Friday.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 4, 2024.
TORONTO – Running back Brady Oliveira of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Hamilton Tiger-Cats quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell are the finalists for the CFL’s outstanding player award.
Oliveira led the CFL in rushing this season with 1,353 yards while Mitchell was the league leader in passing yards (5,451) and touchdowns (32).
Oliveira is also the West Division finalist for the CFL’s top Canadian award, the second straight year he’s been nominated for both.
Oliveira was the CFL’s outstanding Canadian in 2023 and the runner-up to Toronto Argonauts quarterback Chad Kelly for outstanding player.
Defensive lineman Isaac Adeyemi-Berglund of the Montreal Alouettes is the East Division’s top Canadian nominee.
Voting for the awards is conducted by the Football Reporters of Canada and the nine CFL head coaches.
The other award finalists include: defensive back Rolan Milligan Jr. of the Saskatchewan Roughriders and Montreal linebacker Tyrice Beverette (outstanding defensive player); Saskatchewan’s Logan Ferland and Toronto’s Ryan Hunter (outstanding lineman); B.C. Lions kicker Sean Whyte and Toronto returner Janarion Grant (special teams); and Edmonton Elks linebacker Nick Anderson and Hamilton receiver Shemar Bridges (outstanding rookie).
The coach of the year finalists are Saskatchewan’s Corey Mace and Montreal’s Jason Maas.
The CFL will honour its top individual performers Nov. 14 in Vancouver.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 31.
