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Saudi Arabia’s Economy Shrinks by Most Since 2020 On Oil Cuts

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(Bloomberg) — Saudi Arabia’s economy suffered its biggest contraction since 2020 during the third quarter, after the kingdom cut oil production to push up prices.

Gross domestic product shrunk 4.5% in the third quarter compared to a year earlier, driven by a 17% drop in the oil economy, according to preliminary data by the General Authority of Statistics. Growth in the non-oil economy also slowed.

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That’s the biggest contraction in three years, when the coronavirus pandemic was wreaking havoc across global economies, and the first output drop since the start of 2021.

The world’s biggest crude exporter enacted a unilateral oil production cut in July, putting its output at 9 million barrels a day. The kingdom’s now producing almost 1 million barrels a day below its average for the past decade, and seems likely to remain at current output levels until at least the end of this year.

Economic growth in the kingdom reached nearly 9% last year, the fastest amoung the Group of 20 nations, driven by record crude output and Russia’s war on Ukraine roiling energy markets. That helped Saudi Arabia’s GDP surpass $1 trillion for the first time.

Brent traded close to $88 per barrel as of 7:40 a.m. in London, down from last year’s average of $100 a barrel.

“The contraction in the oil sector is likely going to be the sharpest in the third quarter,” according to Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC, who expects the Saudi economy to shrink by 0.8% this year.

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“We expect a narrower contraction in the oil sector in the fourth quarter in yearly terms with production remaining broadly steady,” she said.

Read: Oil Cuts and Price Drop Slow Saudi Arabia’s Economy

The World Bank is estimating the Saudi economy will shrink by nearly 1% in 2023.

Non-oil growth, the main driver of employment and in which Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is investing trillions of dollars to diversify the economy, grew 3.6%, according to the preliminary data.

On a quarterly basis, non-oil growth rose 0.1%, the softest pace of acceleration since the end of 2020. Overall GDP dropped around 4% quarter-on-quarter.

“The non-oil data points to a softening in momentum,” said Malik, “though the high government spending backdrop is visible in the third-quarter data and will be supportive.”

Weaning the Saudi economy off a reliance on oil sales is a key part of Prince Mohammed’s Vision 2030 plan, which was launched in 2016. The government said it was likely to record deficits until 2026 as it accelerates spending on projects intended to foster new industries like tourism and manufacturing. Still, oil and closely-related products such as chemicals and plastics accounted for around 90% of exports last year, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan said he is mainly concerned with boosting non-oil growth during the kingdom’s flagship financial conference last week, adding that he expects growth in the sector to average 6% by the end of this year.

(Updates throughout)

 

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports real GDP grew 0.2% in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says real gross domestic product grew 0.2 per cent in July, following essentially no change in June, helped by strength in the retail trade sector.

The agency says the growth came as services-producing industries grew 0.2 per cent for the month.

The retail trade sector was the largest contributor to overall growth in July as it gained one per cent, helped by the motor vehicles and parts dealers subsector which gained 2.8 per cent.

The public sector aggregate, which includes the educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration sectors, gained 0.3 per cent, while the finance and insurance sector rose 0.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, goods-producing industries gained 0.1 per cent in July as the utilities sector rose 1.3 per cent and the manufacturing sector grew 0.3 per cent.

Statistics Canada’s early estimate for August suggests real GDP for the month was essentially unchanged, as increases in oil and gas extraction and the public sector were offset by decreases in manufacturing and transportation and warehousing.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 27, 2024.

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S&P/TSX composite tops 24,000 points for first time, U.S. markets also rise Thursday

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index closed above 24,000 for the first time Thursday as strength in base metals and other sectors outweighed losses in energy, while U.S. markets also rose and the S&P 500 notched another record as well.

“Another day, another record,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.

“The path of least resistance continues to be higher.”

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 127.95 points at 24,033.83.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 260.36 points at 42,175.11. The S&P 500 index was up 23.11 points at 5,745.37, while the Nasdaq composite was up 108.09 points at 18,190.29.

Markets continue to be optimistic about an economic soft landing, said Kourkafas, after the U.S. Federal Reserve last week announced an outsized cut to its key interest rate following months of speculation about when it would start easing policy.

Economic data Thursday added to the story that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite higher rates, said Kourkafas.

The U.S. economy grew at a three-per-cent annual rate in the second quarter, one report said, picking up from the first quarter of the year. Another report showed fewer U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week.

The data shows “the economy remains on strong footing while the Fed is pivoting now in a decisive way towards an easier policy,” said Kourkafas.

The Fed’s decisive move gave investors more reason to believe that a soft landing is still the “base case scenario,” he said, “and likely reduces the downside risks for a recession by having the Fed moving too late or falling behind the curve.”

North of the border, the TSX usually gets a boost from Wall St. strength, said Kourkafas, but on Thursday the index also reflected some optimism of its own as the Bank of Canada has already cut rates three times to address weakening in the economy.

“The Bank of Canada likely now will be emboldened by the Fed,” he said.

“They didn’t want to move too far ahead of the Fed, and now that the Fed moved in a bigger-than-expected way, that provides more room for the Bank of Canada to cut as aggressively as needed to support the economy, given that inflation is within the target range.”

The TSX has also been benefiting from strength in materials after China’s central bank announced several measures meant to support the company’s economy, said Kourkafas.

However, energy stocks dragged on the Canadian index as oil prices fell Thursday following a report that Saudi Arabia was preparing to abandon its unofficial US$100-per-barrel price target for crude as it prepares to increase its output.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.22 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was down US$2.02 at US$67.67 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down seven cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$10.20 at US$2,694.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 15 cents at US$4.64 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stocks also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal sector, while U.S. stock markets were also higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was 143.00 points at 24,048.88.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 174.22 points at 42,088.97. The S&P 500 index was up 10.23 points at 5,732.49, while the Nasdaq composite was up 30.02 points at 18,112.23.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.23 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was down US$1.68 at US$68.01 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down six cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$4.40 at US$2,689.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 13 cents at US$4.62 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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