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Saudi Arabia’s Economy Shrinks by Most Since 2020 On Oil Cuts

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(Bloomberg) — Saudi Arabia’s economy suffered its biggest contraction since 2020 during the third quarter, after the kingdom cut oil production to push up prices.

Gross domestic product shrunk 4.5% in the third quarter compared to a year earlier, driven by a 17% drop in the oil economy, according to preliminary data by the General Authority of Statistics. Growth in the non-oil economy also slowed.

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That’s the biggest contraction in three years, when the coronavirus pandemic was wreaking havoc across global economies, and the first output drop since the start of 2021.

The world’s biggest crude exporter enacted a unilateral oil production cut in July, putting its output at 9 million barrels a day. The kingdom’s now producing almost 1 million barrels a day below its average for the past decade, and seems likely to remain at current output levels until at least the end of this year.

Economic growth in the kingdom reached nearly 9% last year, the fastest amoung the Group of 20 nations, driven by record crude output and Russia’s war on Ukraine roiling energy markets. That helped Saudi Arabia’s GDP surpass $1 trillion for the first time.

Brent traded close to $88 per barrel as of 7:40 a.m. in London, down from last year’s average of $100 a barrel.

“The contraction in the oil sector is likely going to be the sharpest in the third quarter,” according to Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC, who expects the Saudi economy to shrink by 0.8% this year.

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“We expect a narrower contraction in the oil sector in the fourth quarter in yearly terms with production remaining broadly steady,” she said.

Read: Oil Cuts and Price Drop Slow Saudi Arabia’s Economy

The World Bank is estimating the Saudi economy will shrink by nearly 1% in 2023.

Non-oil growth, the main driver of employment and in which Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is investing trillions of dollars to diversify the economy, grew 3.6%, according to the preliminary data.

On a quarterly basis, non-oil growth rose 0.1%, the softest pace of acceleration since the end of 2020. Overall GDP dropped around 4% quarter-on-quarter.

“The non-oil data points to a softening in momentum,” said Malik, “though the high government spending backdrop is visible in the third-quarter data and will be supportive.”

Weaning the Saudi economy off a reliance on oil sales is a key part of Prince Mohammed’s Vision 2030 plan, which was launched in 2016. The government said it was likely to record deficits until 2026 as it accelerates spending on projects intended to foster new industries like tourism and manufacturing. Still, oil and closely-related products such as chemicals and plastics accounted for around 90% of exports last year, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan said he is mainly concerned with boosting non-oil growth during the kingdom’s flagship financial conference last week, adding that he expects growth in the sector to average 6% by the end of this year.

(Updates throughout)

 

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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