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BA.2, a More Contagious Cousin of the Dominant BA.1 Subvariant of the Omicron Variant of SARS-CoV-2 – The Daily Beast

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There are signs a new wave of COVID is building. BA.2, a more contagious cousin of the dominant BA.1 subvariant of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, has been spreading fast in Europe and China in recent weeks.

Now it’s starting to show up more frequently in samples of waste water in major American cities, including Atlanta, New York City, Chicago, and Seattle, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The warning signs come as most of the U.S. and Europe drop the last few major restrictions on business, travel, schooling, and public gatherings. Stores and restaurants are fully open. Concerts and other events are back on. Mask mandates are disappearing.

Mitigation efforts ending at the same time cases are increasing might seem like a recipe for disaster. But don’t panic—at least not yet. We’re probably reasonably ready for BA.2, even without a bunch of public-health mandates. Whether we’ll be ready for whatever comes after BA.2… well, that remains to be seen.

“I’m not necessarily at the level of being worried right now, but this is something to watch because BA.2 is even more transmissible than BA.1,” Cindy Prins, a University of Florida epidemiologist, told The Daily Beast.

Experts disagree on just how much more transmissible BA.2 is, compared to BA.1. Some say 30 percent more. Others, 50 percent more. In any event, it’s all but inevitable that the subvariant will outcompete other forms of the novel coronavirus and become the dominant variant in the U.S.

More than two years into the pandemic, the march of new variants and subvariants, once they first appear, is pretty predictable. “The trend in Europe has been three-to-six weeks ahead of us, five waves of COVID-19 and counting,” Eric Bortz, a University of Alaska-Anchorage virologist and public-health expert, told The Daily Beast.

Mark your calendar. Around half of European countries registered increases in new COVID cases in the past week—almost all of them BA.2. At the same time, Chinese authorities have locked down the city of Shenzhen, near Hong Kong, after detecting a surge in infections that experts attribute to the new subvariant.

Now project a month or so into the future. BA.2, with its elevated transmission rate, could be dominant in the U.S. in early summer, Edwin Michael, an epidemiologist at the Center for Global Health Infectious Disease Research at the University of South Florida, told The Daily Beast. That chimes with Bortz’s prediction of a six-week delay between European and U.S. COVID surges.

Whether BA.2’s coming takeover in America will drive major increases in the metrics that really matter—serious illness, hospitalizations, deaths and long COVID—is an open question.

Surveillance of sewer systems—in essence, scooping up water samples and testing them for the virus—only hints at a possible increase in infections. And an increase in infections might not cause a commensurate increase in hospitalizations, deaths and long-term impacts on infected people.

“Remember, it’s not 2020,” Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine and public health at UCLA who previously worked at the CDC, told The Daily Beast. “We have surveillance, widespread testing, vaccination, high levels of immunity against severe disease and highly effective antiviral therapy.”

Bortz told The Daily Beast he expects the BA.2 wave in the U.S. to be smaller and less destructive than the one that preceded it. For that reason, he referred to it as a “wavelet.”

“The peak of the Omicron BA.2 wavelet when it arrives may well be significantly smaller than previous waves in terms of severe disease—hospitalizations and deaths—because a large fraction of the U.S. population has some degree of immunity, from vaccination, infection, including with Omicron BA1, or both,” Bortz said.

That outcome would be consistent with the overall trend. The wave of BA.1 infections that began around Thanksgiving last year put a lot of people in the hospital, but it didn’t kill the same proportion as died in the previous wave, driven by the Delta variant in late 2020 and early 2021.

Two women walk by closed shops in Huaqiangbei area, the world’s biggest electronics market, in Shenzhen in south China’s Guangdong province.

Feature China/Future Publishing via Getty

It’s not hard to explain this trend. Every infection produces natural antibodies that protect a survivor for months. Each successive COVID surge crashes into the wall of immunity left behind by the previous surge. Plus, we’ve got new prescription COVID pills and an array of therapies that can reduce the risk of death in all but the most severe cases.

Most importantly, we have highly effective, safe and free vaccines. And they still work just fine, even as SARS-CoV-2 keeps mutating. “As with the BA.1 version, being fully vaccinated and boosted provides good protection against BA.2,” Prins said.

So be wary, but don’t freak out. Yes, COVID is coming for us yet again. But we’re better prepared than ever before, even with the widespread lifting of public-health measures such as mask-mandates and restrictions on businesses and schools.

The same can’t be said of our readiness for any new variant that might come after BA.2. “Right now COVID-19 remains very unpredictable and deadly,” Irwin Redlener, the founding director of Columbia University’s National Center for Disaster Preparedness, told The Daily Beast. “We have no idea of where this is going.”

Most worryingly, natural and vaccine-induced immunity wane over time. If some highly transmissible new variant strikes in a year or so, after our antibodies from the last 15 months of vaccinations and the recent Omicron waves have faded, we might be mostly defenseless.

People wearing face masks to protect against the spread of coronavirus walking in El Postiguet beach of Alicante as COVID-19 cases are increasing in Spain.

Marcos del Mazo/LightRocket via Getty

At that point, preventing catastrophic numbers of hospitalizations and deaths would require major new restrictions on businesses, travel, schools and gatherings and an aggressive effort to administer additional doses of the best vaccines.

In that scenario, early 2023 could look a lot like early 2020. To prevent this outcome, get vaccinated, get boosted, listen to the experts and be flexible and patient if and when we need to start masking up in some situations and limiting some crowds again. “This virus has taught us to remain vigilant and keep an eye on all mutations,” Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington Institute for Health, told The Daily Beast.

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Liberals launch pandemic preparedness agency, seeking faster vaccine development

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OTTAWA – The federal Liberals are creating a new agency to beef up Canada’s ability to handle rapidly spreading infectious diseases and protect from future pandemics.

Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne said the agency is meant to preserve the “top-gun team” of public servants that helped steer Canadians through COVID-19.

Health Emergency Readiness Canada is being tasked with boosting Canada’s life-sciences sector and ensuring Canadians get faster access to vaccines, medical therapies and diagnostics by accelerating the transition from research to commercialization.

“The danger would have been (that) if we don’t have a permanent agency sitting somewhere, that collective knowledge that we have accumulated during COVID would even be dispersed eventually, perhaps even lost within the civil service,” Champagne told reporters on Tuesday.

“We’re pulling them together in a team so that when people are talking about health, emergency readiness, they know where to knock.”

The new agency will be based in the Industry Department but include staff from the Public Health Agency of Canada and Health Canada. Champagne said it requires no new legislation and is based on spending Parliament already approved through this year’s budget.

“We want to keep a very close nexus with industry,” Champagne said.

The agency will co-ordinate efforts between Canadian industry and academic researchers as well as with international partners.

This follows a similar move by the European Union to create an agency in 2021 that not only tries to prepare the continent for pandemics, but seeks to learn from mistakes during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Canada was not adequately prepared for the COVID-19 pandemic with an outdated and understocked emergency stockpile, and a virtually non-existent vaccine production industry.

Last year, the British Medical Journal called out Canada’s “major pandemic failures” such as jurisdictional wrangling and a high death rate in long-term care homes.

Yet the Trudeau government has resisted calls from medical experts and the NDP to follow countries like the U.K. in having an inquiry into how governments handled the COVID-19 pandemic and how they could better manage a future pandemic.

When asked about an inquiry, Champagne said the announcement is focused on having the right materials and researchers on hand when needed.

“We all hope that there be no other pandemic. But the responsible thing to do is to make sure that you have the team stand by and ready,” he said.

Champagne told a biotechnology industry gathering on Friday that officials found Canada was not ready in co-ordinating “health emergency readiness” when peers started looking into preparing for future events.

“We realized that things were scattered,” he said.

He said Canada faced the danger of being the only G7 country “without a dedicated team” for pandemic preparedness.

Once fully operational, the agency will have an “industrial game plan” to move quickly on research and industrial mobilization if another health emergency like a pandemic is declared.

Champagne said the pandemic and investments in personalized medicine have made the public enthusiastic about the biotechnology sector.

“If there is one industry that I think Canadians have fallen in love again with, it’s certainly that industry,” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Alberta doctors association says delayed pay deal will hurt health-care system

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EDMONTON – An Alberta doctors‘ group says even though a new pay deal with the province is ready to be implemented, the government isn’t putting its money where its mouth is.

Dr. Shelley Duggan, the Alberta Medical Association’s new president, says doctors are worried the province’s health-care system is on the verge of collapse, and the pay deal is still waiting on approval from the province’s Treasury Board.

Former association president Dr. Paul Parks says Premier Danielle Smith promised the deal by September and the delay is hurting the struggling health-care system.

Parks says the government’s work to break up the provincial health authority is sparking chaos and that creating multiple administrative layers could stifle co-ordination.

Health Minister Adriana LaGrange recently said the government is committed to getting a fair and sustainable compensation model for primary care physicians.

Late last year, Smith announced $200 million in federal funding over two years to help physicians keep their practices open, with the province rolling out another $57 million in February.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 23, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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N.S. woman with painful condition seeks MAID amid battle to fund surgical treatment

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HALIFAX – A Nova Scotia woman has applied for a medically assisted death, saying after years of battling to receive out-of-country surgery for an illness that causes “indescribable” pain, she struggles to maintain the will to live.

Jennifer Brady completed her MAID application in June. She has lymphedema in her legs, a condition in which tissues swell from the accumulation of fluids normally drained through the body’s lymphatic system.

In an interview Thursday, the 46-year-old mother of two said she has intense daily pain, skin infections that resemble a sunburn intensified “1,000 times,” and blood infections that exhaust her to the point “you feel like you’re dying.”

However, Brady said that after she received treatment in Japan in 2022 — at her own expense — her swelling decreased, particularly in her right leg, and some symptoms were relieved. She said she believes that if she can receive the funds to pay for more surgery, her condition can improve — as will her desire to remain alive.

The possibility that her health can improve is what led to her MAID request being denied.

In a letter sent to Health Minister Michelle Thompson on July 7, Dr. Gord Gubitz, the clinical lead of Nova Scotia’s MAID program, said his team is rejecting Brady’s application because her condition is not considered “irremediable.”

“It seems reasonable to me that if an assessment (and surgery, if clinically indicated) … could help to reduce Brady’s suffering and obviate the need to consider MAID, this option should be explored. Your office can make this happen,” Gubitz wrote to Thompson.

After telling her story to CBC this week, Brady said she has received online support from people offering encouragement and financial help. However, she said she still needs the health minister to authorize funding for treatment she cannot get in the province.

On Wednesday, Thompson told reporters, “I will not make a commitment to do that,” and then added, “If that individual will work with the department and reach out, perhaps there is another path forward.” The minister refused detailed comment, citing an ongoing court case and privacy law.

In Brady’s case before the Nova Scotia Supreme Court launched over two years ago, she took issue with the province’s decision to deny her funding for out-of-country care, arguing it was unreasonable and unfair.

In legal briefs, government lawyers argued Brady failed to receive a referral for the treatment. The lawyers said she was on a wait-list to see a Nova Scotia plastic surgeon and became “frustrated.”

Brady’s January 2024 affidavit responding to the lawyers said that given her physical deterioration, the plastic surgeon’s years-long waiting time and his lack of expertise in her illness, “the department created standards that were functionally impossible to meet.”

On Thursday, Brady said she found the minister’s latest comments frustrating and “somewhat disingenuous,” adding that they left her wondering whether Thompson had personally reviewed her case.

She said that even if she wins in court and is awarded about $60,000 in costs related to her 2022 treatment in Japan, the years of legal battles, the continuing pain and her deteriorating mental health have led to her decision that MAID is the best option. “It was after a winter where I could barely get out of bed and when I did, I just didn’t want to be here.”

Brady spends at least five hours daily in a full body massage machine that helps move fluid in her legs to reduce swelling. “I mean, what’s the point honestly? I’m in that machine and the machine itself is so uncomfortable.”

Applying for MAID “definitely isn’t a strategic move,” she said. “That’s not my plan A. I want to live. I want to be here for my kids. I love my job.”

“I want the option (of MAID) to be there. But if I were given the treatment today (for lymphedema) I would definitely take it,” she said.

Brady, a dietitian and professor at Acadia University’s faculty of nutrition, said she is also suffering from depression, a condition for which she’s been unable to take medicines as they tend to increase the swelling in her legs.

Her lymphedema developed after a hysterectomy to treat her cervical cancer in 2019. She said she was informed in 2021 that local surgical options weren’t available to her, which led her to Dr. Joshua Vortenbosch, an expert in lymphedema at McGill University. However, she was denied funding for the surgery in Montreal. The rejection led her to do research, and to her 2022 trip for surgery in Japan.

In Japan, she received lymphovenous anastomosis, a procedure in which a surgeon connects lymph vessels in the limbs to nearby veins to bypass damaged areas and restore the flow of lymph fluids.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 20, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax.

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