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Yearender: US economy slows in 2019, thorny road ahead – Xinhua | English.news.cn – Xinhua

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Yearender: US economy slows in 2019, thorny road ahead – Xinhua | English.news.cn – Xinhua


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Colorful child’s riding toys are displayed at the 116th Annual North American International Toy Fair at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center in New York, the United States, Feb. 16, 2019. (Xinhua/Wang Ying)

The U.S. economy has maintained a moderate pace of growth, but it faces a thorny path ahead.

WASHINGTON, Dec. 24 (Xinhua) — The U.S. economy, supported by robust consumer spending and a strong job market, has maintained a moderate pace of growth as 2019 draws to a close. While worries about an immediate recession have abated, its economy still shows signs of slowing down.

With business investment falling and manufacturing sector contracting, the U.S. economic recovery has hit a lot of bumps over the past few months. It faces a thorny path ahead amid lingering trade uncertainty and a synchronized global slowdown.

MIXED PICTURE

U.S. economic growth in the third quarter expanded at an annual rate of 2.1 percent, which is slightly up from the 2 percent in the second quarter and marks a sharp deceleration from the 3.1 percent in the first quarter, according to data from the U.S. Commerce Department.

A panel of professional forecasters recently surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) anticipated the U.S. Gross Domestic Product growth would slow from 2.9 percent in 2018 to 2.3 percent this year.

After the central bank’s latest policy meeting earlier this month, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell described the mixed picture in his words: “Household spending has been strong, supported by a healthy job market, rising incomes, and solid consumer confidence. In contrast, business investment and exports remain weak, and manufacturing output has declined over the past year.”

Personal consumption expenditures, which account for roughly 70 percent of U.S. economic output, have seen robust growth during the first three quarters — rising by 1.1 percent, 4.6 percent, and 3.2 percent respectively — partly soothing fears over the health of the world’s largest economy.

The unemployment rate, which has remained below 4 percent since the beginning of the year, dropped slightly to 3.5 percent in November, again hitting the lowest in nearly five decades. Job gains have averaged 205,000 from September to November.

Despite resilient consumer spending and a strong labor market, business investment has declined for two straight quarters — dropping by 1 percent in the second quarter and 2.3 percent in the third — acting as a drag on the overall economy.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector, meanwhile, contracted for a fourth consecutive month in November, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The Purchasing Managers’ Index registered 47.8 percent in September, the lowest in a decade.

TRADE UNCERTAINTY

The Fed chairman, along with many economists, has repeatedly cited trade tensions as one of the factors that have been weighing on the U.S. economy.

Noting that the economy faced some “important challenges” from weaker global growth and trade uncertainty over the past year, Powell said the central bank adjusted the stance of monetary policy to “cushion” the economy from these developments and “provide some insurance against the associated risks.”

The Fed has lowered interest rates three times since July, amid growing uncertainty stemming from trade tensions, weakness in global growth and muted inflation pressures. These policy adjustments put the current federal funds rate target range at 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent.

Yearender: US economy slows in 2019, thorny road ahead – Xinhua | English.news.cn – Xinhua

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference in Washington D.C., the United States, on Dec. 11, 2019. (Xinhua/Sarah Silbiger)

The Business Roundtable, an association of CEOs for some of the largest companies in the United States, recently said its index of the CEOs’ economic outlook in the fourth quarter dropped to 76.7, which remains below the historical average and marks the seventh consecutive quarterly decline.

“CEOs are justified in their caution about the state of the U.S. economy. While we have achieved a competitive tax environment, uncertainty surrounding trade policy and slowing global growth are creating headwinds for business,” said Joshua Bolten, president and CEO of the Business Roundtable.

According to the NABE survey released earlier this month, trade policy continues to be the “most widely cited” dominant downside risk to the U.S. economy through 2020, with half of respondents citing it as the “greatest” downside risk.

U.S.-initiated trade tensions have taken a toll on the global economy. The World Trade Organization recently said that world merchandise trade volumes are expected to rise by only 1.2 percent in 2019, substantially slower than the 2.6 percent growth forecast in April.

In its latest World Economic Outlook report released in October, the International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast for 2019 to 3 percent, warning that growth continues to be weakened by rising trade barriers and growing geopolitical tensions.

THORNY ROAD AHEAD

The U.S. economy is expected to further slow down next year against the backdrop of persistent trade policy uncertainty and a labor market that could be losing momentum, as well as a precarious global outlook.

Official data showed that job gains have averaged 180,000 per month so far in 2019, compared with an average monthly gain of 223,000 in 2018, indicating that the overall level of hiring has been slowing down over the past few months. Meanwhile, the pace of payroll growth has remained weak.

According to the CNBC Global CFO Council survey for the fourth quarter, 60 percent of chief financial officers expect their company’s head count to decrease over the next 12 months.

The NABE survey panelists believed the U.S. economy would slow to 1.8 percent in 2020. “The consensus forecast calls for a pickup in housing, but slower growth in business investment and consumer spending, along with larger deficits in trade and the federal budget,” said NABE President Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG.

The federal budget deficit, which ballooned rapidly during the Trump administration, has drawn concern from many. Powell, the Fed chairman, recently stressed the urgency for the U.S. Congress to address the issue, noting that there would otherwise be less fiscal space to support the economy in a downturn.

On the trade front, uncertainty has been the only certainty. Despite progress with Canada, Mexico and China, the United States has proposed tariffs on French products in retaliation for digital service tax, and its Boeing-Airbus aircraft subsidy dispute with the European Union has been escalating.

Yearender: US economy slows in 2019, thorny road ahead – Xinhua | English.news.cn – Xinhua

A worker milks a cow at a dairy farm run by Kelly D. Cunningham in rural Cass County of the U.S. state of Iowa, Oct. 16, 2019. (Xinhua/Wang Ying)

“The administration’s trade policies have left little room to maneuver,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, a major accounting firm, wrote in an analysis.

“Either the president backs off his campaign promises, holds the line on tariffs and the economy slows. Or, he risks a recession by doubling down on trade wars and heightening uncertainty,” Swonk wrote.

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Economy

Canadian regulator lifts banks’ capital buffer to record, priming for post-pandemic world

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Banks in Canada

Canada‘s financial regulator raised the amount of capital the country’s biggest lenders must hold to guard against risks to a record 2.5% of risk-weighted assets, from 1% currently, in a surprise move that could pave the way for them to resume dividend increases and share buybacks.

The new measures, which take effect on Oct. 31, is a sign that the economic and market disruptions stemming from the coronavirus pandemic have abated and banks’ capital levels have been resilient, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) said in a statement.

But the regulator acknowledged that key vulnerabilities, including household and corporate debt levels, as well as asset imbalances caused by steep increase in home prices over the past year, remain.

In a sign of concern about the housing market, OSFI and the Canadian government raised the benchmark to determine the minimum qualifying rate for mortgages, starting June 1.

The increase in the Domestic Stability Buffer (DSB) to the highest possible level raises the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital – the core bank capital measure – to 10.5% of risk-weighted assets; a 4.5% base level, a “capital conservation buffer” of 2.5%, and a 1% surcharge for systemically important banks, plus the DSB.

The change “gives OSFI more leeway to loosen a restriction down the road, namely the freeze on buybacks and dividend increases,” National Bank Financial Analyst Gabriel Dechaine said.

OSFI felt it was “useful for the banks to understand what our minimal capital expectations are and to give them time to adjust to that… ahead of any lifting of the temporary capital distribution restrictions,” Assistant Superintendent Jamey Hubbs said on a media call.

Even with the higher requirement, Canada‘s six biggest banks would have excess capital of about C$51 billion, dropping from C$82 billion as of April 30, according to Reuters calculations.

That was driven in part by a moratorium on dividend increases and share buybacks imposed by OSFI in March 2020, although a pandemic-driven surge in loan losses has so far failed to materialize.

The Canadian banks index slipped 0.25% in morning trading in Toronto, while the Toronto stock benchmark fell 0.1%.

The increase is the first since the last one announced in December 2019, which did not come into effect as planned in April 2020, as OSFI made an out-of-schedule change https://www.reuters.com/article/canada-mortgages-regulation-idUSL1N2B636J that dropped the rate to 1% in March. It has maintained that level at its twice yearly reviews.

Prior to that, OSFI had raised the required level by 25 basis points at every twice yearly review since it was introduced at 1.5% in June 2018.

($1 = 1.2326 Canadian dollars)

 

(Reporting By Nichola Saminather; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Jonathan Oatis)

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Economy

Canada Economic Indicators

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Fed to focus on next steps to save economy – BNNBloomberg.ca

The economic indicators used to gauge the performance of an economy and its outlook are the same across most nations. What differs is the relative importance of certain indicators to a specific economy at various points in time (for instance, housing indicators are closely watched when the housing market is booming or slumping), and the bodies or organizations compiling and disseminating these indicators in each nation.

Here are the 12 key economic indicators for Canada, the world’s 10th-largest economy:1

GDP Growth

Canada's GDP grew by 3% in July as more sectors reopened – CBC.ca

Statistics Canada, a national agency, publishes growth statistics on the Canadian economy on monthly and quarterly bases. The report shows the real gross domestic product (GDP) for the overall economy and broken down by industry. It is an accurate monthly/quarterly status report on the Canadian economy and each industry within it.2

 

Employment Change and Unemployment

Key data on the Canadian employment market, such as the net change in employment, the unemployment rate, and participation rate, is contained in the monthly Labour Force Survey, released by Statistics Canada. The report contains a wealth of information about the Canadian job market, categorized by the demographic, class of worker (private sector employee, public sector employee, self-employed), industry, and province.3

Consumer Price Index

Statistics Canada releases a monthly report on the consumer price index (CPI) that measures inflation at the consumer level. The index is constructed by comparing changes over time in a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. The report shows the change in CPI monthly and over the past 12 months, on an overall and core (excluding food and energy prices) basis.4

International Merchandise Trade

This monthly report from Statistics Canada shows the nation’s imports and exports, as well as the net merchandise trade surplus or deficit. The report also compares the most current data with that for the preceding month. Exports and imports are shown by product category, and also for Canada’s top ten trading partners.5

Teranet – National Bank House Price Index

This composite index of house prices across Canada was developed by Teranet and the National Bank of Canada and represents average home prices in Canada’s six largest metropolitan areas. A monthly report shows the change in the index monthly and over the past 12 months, as well as monthly and 12-month changes in Canada’s six and 11 largest metropolitan areas.6

RBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index – PMI

Released on the first business day of each month, this indicator of trends in the Canadian manufacturing sector was launched in June 2011 by Royal Bank of Canada, in association with Markit and the Purchasing Management Association of Canada. RBC PMI readings above 50 signal expansion as compared to the previous month, while readings below 50 signal contraction. The monthly survey also tracks other information pertinent to the manufacturing sector, such as changes in output, new orders, employment, inventories, prices, and supplier delivery times.7

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index

The Conference Board of Canada’s Index of Consumer Confidence measures consumers’ levels of optimism in the state of the economy. It is a crucial indicator of near-term sales for consumer product companies in Canada, as well as an indicator of the outlook for the broad economy since consumer demand comprises such a significant part of it. The index is constructed on the basis of responses to four questions by a random sampling of Canadian households. Survey participants are asked how they view their households’ current and expected financial positions, their short-term employment outlook, and whether now is a good time to make a major purchase.8

Ivey Purchasing Managers Index – PMI

 An index prepared by the Ivey Business School at Western University, the Ivey PMI measures the monthly variation in economic activity, as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers across Canada. It is based on responses by these purchasing managers to a single question: “Were your purchases last month in dollars higher, the same, or lower than in the previous month?” An index reading below 50 shows a decrease; a reading above 50 shows an increase. Panel members indicate changes in their organization’s activity over five broad categories: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries, and prices.9

Housing Starts

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) issues a monthly report on the sixth working day of every month, showing the previous month’s new residential construction activity. The data is presented by region, province, census metropolitan area, and dwelling type (single-detached or multiple-unit). The indicator is an important gauge of the state of the Canadian housing market.10

Home Sales

This key indicator of housing activity is compiled by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and is based on the number of home sales processed through the MLS (Multiple Listing Service) Systems of real estate boards and associations in Canada. The monthly report from the CREA shows the change in home sales across Canada, as well as for major markets, from month to month. The report also includes other important housing-related information, such as the change (as a percentage) in newly listed homes, the national sales-to-new listings ratio, months of housing inventory, the change in the MLS Home Price Index, and the national average price for homes sold within the month.11

Retail Sales

Statistics Canada releases a monthly report on retail sales activity across Canada, with changes shown on month-over-month and year-over-year bases. The headline number shows the percentage change in national retail sales on a dollar basis; the percentage change in volume terms is also shown. The retail sales figures are shown by industry and for each province or territory, and provide insights into Canadian consumer spending.12

Building Permits 

The building permits survey conducted monthly by Statistics Canada collects data on the value of permits issued by Canadian municipalities for residential and non-residential buildings, as well as the number of residential dwellings authorized. Since building permit issuance is one of the very first steps in the process of construction, the aggregate building permits data are very useful as a leading indicator for assessing the state of the construction industry.13

The Bottom Line

The 12 economic indicators briefly described above show the health of key aspects of Canada’s economy: consumer spending, housing, manufacturing, employment, inflation, external trade, and economic growth. Taken together, they provide a comprehensive picture of the state of the Canadian economy.

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Economy

Canada adds jobs for fourth straight month in May

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B.C. saw close to 55000 new jobs in Septmber

Canada added 101,600 jobs in May, the fourth consecutive month of gains, led by hiring in the education and health services sector as well as in professional and business services, a report from payroll services provider ADP showed on Thursday.

The April data was revised to show 101,300 jobs were gained, rather than an increase of 351,300. The report, which is derived from ADP’s payrolls data, measures the change in total nonfarm payroll employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

 

(Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Alex Richardson)

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