Where does the rebuild go from here? It’s the most pressing question facing the Ottawa Senators.
Temporary realignment due to the coronavirus outbreak has put the Senators in a difficult position this season. The Atlantic Division was top-heavy, offering a sampling of elite teams and minnows alike. The North isn’t nearly as strong at the top, but it has an ample number of average or slightly above-average teams. That means Ottawa has been a sizable underdog in almost every game this season.
It’s the inverse of what their Ontario rival in Toronto is dealing with this season. The Maple Leafs have established themselves as the prohibitive favourite to emerge from the North, but there are still genuine concerns about how they will match up against some of the league’s elite teams.
And much like the Maple Leafs won’t be tested against old Atlantic foes like the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning, the Senators don’t have an opportunity to establish their game against other rebuilding or transitional teams like the Buffalo Sabres and Detroit Red Wings.
But one thing seems increasingly clear: The Senators do not appear to be close to competing for a playoff berth, running behind their self-established timeline.
Shifting a rebuilding timeline isn’t the worst outcome. Sometimes slowing down and being realistic about player development and broader organizational talent can be a net win. Decisions and player moves made out of frustration with rebuilds and timelines tend to end ugly – we have a laundry list of examples to point to on that front over the past 20 years.
That said, it’s important for Ottawa to understand what’s not working right now. The team is 10-20-1, and that’s with three wins against Toronto. From my perspective, there are three notes of concern for Ottawa as they head towards the off-season.
1. What is the plan in net?
Ottawa tried to answer this question last off-season, bringing in 26-year-old Matt Murray on a four-year, $25 million-dollar contract – one with a limited no-trade clause that kicks in next season. The Murray signing was always going to be a bit of a gamble, with the Senators betting that Murray’s ugly final year in Pittsburgh was an outlier and that buying low on a goaltender with upside would pay off.
One problem: Murray is following up last season’s career lows (which were already sub-replacement level) with new career lows in Ottawa.
Some of this is indisputably tied to raw and immature defensive structure up front, but Murray has built a small film room of mistakes in a matter of 22 games. And there hasn’t been anything to smile at behind Murray – Marcus Hogberg (85.9 per cent stop rate) has been abysmal, and Joey Daccord (89.7 per cent stop rate) is still quite young.
As a group, they are 31st in the league by a considerable margin:
The amount of daylight between Ottawa and teams with truly dreadful goaltending – the tandems in San Jose and Detroit have struggled for years now – is staggering. And again, some of this (especially the team save percentage numbers) is just as much a reflection of poor defensive play as it is substandard goaltending.
Goaltenders have made ample mistakes in Ottawa’s net this year. On the other hand, there is a staggering amount of shooting volume coming from dangerous scoring areas – and in Ottawa’s case, the low slot specifically:
2. Are the kids alright?
That brings me to my second point. Ottawa is struggling as a team because most players on the team are struggling.
The veteran players occupying roster spots (or, even worse, brought in for stability purposes on short-range contracts) have largely been anchors on the team’s overall performance. But at some point, performance-based scrutiny will follow the younger players as well. It’s a young man’s NHL, and although development isn’t linear, you want to see guys sustaining some degree of success at this level.
Some of this rebuild has already paid off. Forward Brady Tkachuk is a bona fide top-six forward and one of the game’s best at attacking in the interior at the age of 21. Defenceman Thomas Chabot, 24, has shown more than enough over his four years in the league to be considered top-four calibre on the blueline. But most of the rest is still up in the air.
Let’s look at how each player’s on-ice contributions have stacked up this year, but let’s also control for some of the woeful goaltending that has been behind them this season.
In this case, we will look at actual goals scored per 60 minutes as a group against expected goals scored against per 60 minutes. And in this case, we’ll also cap to the core group – age 26 or under as of this season:
That’s a sea of red, but I think a couple of examples – defenceman Artem Zub (via KHL St. Petersburg) and forward Nick Paul – are important, because it shows that not every player is struggling, and not every player’s woeful numbers can be chalked up to merely the teammates around him. Zub has been exceptional in a second-pairing role, and Paul has evolved into a reliable middle-six forward with a polished defensive game.
A lot of these players are simply going to need more time. Tim Stutzle has 17 points in 28 games as a 19-year-old rookie, an early indication that there’s a lot of upside to his offensive game already. But it is critical for Ottawa to figure out, and relatively quickly, which of their transitional prospects still have upside to lean into and which ones are hitting a wall.
One of the quickest ways to enhance (and in some cases, accelerate) a rebuild is by understanding your prospect pool better than every other organization.
Every team in the league loves trading for 22-year-old players with upside. But the gap between a Griffin Reinhart trade and, say, a Filip Forsberg trade is significant. And merely waiting for all prospects to develop, knowing that some of these guys just won’t get there, is rebuilding poison.
3. Can this small-market team weaponize cap space?
With no salary cap relief through growth, the teams tight against the cap – of which there are many – are going to have to be increasingly flexible in order to preserve their contention window. Some of those teams are going to naturally regress towards the middle of the pack of the standings anyway, and there will be ample player displacement.
The Senators have $18 million in real cap space right now, and have very few players signed through next season. If the appetite to spend any money on improving the roster is there, Ottawa is as well-positioned as anyone to take advantage – be it by buying up draft picks for dead contracts or acquiring talented players made available from cap-strapped teams.
The question, ultimately, is if they have the cash flexibility to achieve that.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, HockeyViz, NHL.com
Montreal Alouettes wide receiver Tyson Philpot has announced he will be out for the rest of the CFL season.
The Delta, B.C., native posted the news on his Instagram page Thursday.
“To Be Continued. Shoutout my team, the fans of the CFL and the whole city of Montreal! I can’t wait to be back healthy and write this next chapter in 2025,” the statement read.
Philpot, 24, injured his foot in a 33-23 win over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Aug. 10 and was placed on the six-game injured list the next week.
The six-foot-one, 195-pound receiver had 58 receptions, 779 yards and five touchdowns in nine games for the league-leading Alouettes in his third season.
Philpot scored the game-winning touchdown in Montreal’s Grey Cup win last season to punctuate a six-reception, 63-yard performance.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
NAPA, Calif. (AP) — David Lipsky shot a 7-under 65 on Thursday at Silverado Country Club to take a one-stroke lead after the first round of the Procore Championship.
Winless in 104 events since joining the PGA Tour in 2022, Lipsky went out with the early groups and had eight birdies with one bogey to kick off the FedEx Cup Fall series at the picturesque course in the heart of Napa Valley wine country.
After missing the cut in his three previous tournaments, Lipsky flew from Las Vegas to Arizona to reunite with his college coach at Northwestern to get his focus back. He also spent time playing with some of the Northwestern players, which helped him relax.
“Just being around those guys and seeing how carefree they are, not knowing what’s coming for them yet, it’s sort of nice to see that,” Lipsky said. “I was almost energized by their youthfulness.”
Patton Kizzire and Mark Hubbard were a stroke back. Kizzire started on the back nine and made a late run with three consecutive birdies to move into a tie for first. A bogey on No. 8 dropped him back.
“There was a lot of good stuff out there today,” Kizzire said. “I stayed patient and just went through my routines and played well, one shot at a time. I’ve really bee working hard on my mental game and I think that allowed me to rinse and repeat and reset and keep playing.”
Mark Hubbard was at 67. He had nine birdies but fell off the pace with a bogey and triple bogey on back-to-back holes.
Kevin Dougherty also was in the group at 67. He had two eagles and ended his afternoon by holing out from 41 yards on the 383-yard, par-4 18th.
Defending champion Sahith Theegala had to scramble for much of his round of 69.
Wyndham Clark, who won the U.S. Open in 2023 and the AT&T at Pebble Beach in February, had a 70.
Max Homa shot 71. The two-time tournament champion and a captain’s pick for the President’s Cup in two weeks had two birdies and overcame a bogey on the par-4 first.
Stewart Cink, the 2020 winner, also opened with a 71. He won The Ally Challenge last month for his first PGA Tour Champions title.
Three players from the Presidents Cup International team had mix results. Min Woo Lee shot 68, Mackenzie Hughes of Dundas, Ont., 69 and Corey Conners of Listowel, Ont., 73. International team captain Mike Weir of Brights Grove, Ont., also had a 69.
Ben Silverman of Thornhill, Ont., had a 68, Nick Taylor of Abbotsford, B.C., and Roger Sloan of Merritt, B.C., shot 70 and Adam Svensson of Surrey, B.C., had a 71.
Lipsky was a little shaky off the tee for much of the afternoon but made up for it with steady iron play that left him in great shape on the greens. He had one-putts on 11 holes and was in position for a bigger day but left five putts short.
Lipsky’s only real problem came on the par-4 ninth when his approach sailed into a bunker just shy of the green. He bounced back nicely with five birdies on his back nine. After missing a 19-foot putt for birdie on No. 17, Lipsky ended his day with a 12-foot par putt.
That was a big change from last year when Lipsky tied for 30th at Silverado when he drove the ball well but had uneven success on the greens.
“Sometimes you have to realize golf can be fun, and I think I sort of forgot that along the way as I’m grinding it out,” Lipsky said. “You’ve got to put things in perspective, take a step back. Sort of did that and it seems like it’s working out.”
Laird stayed close after beginning his day with a bogey on the par-4 10th. The Scot got out of the sand nicely but pushed his par putt past the hole.
Homa continued to have issues off the tee and missed birdie putts on his final four holes.
GUADALAJARA, Mexico – Canada’s Marina Stakusic is moving on to the quarterfinals of the Guadalajara Open.
The Mississauga, Ont., native defeated the tournament top seed, Jelena Ostapenko of Latvia, 6-3, 5-7, 7-6 (0) in the round of 16 on Thursday.
Stakusic faced a 0-4 deficit in the third and final set before marching back into the match.
The 19-year-old won five of the next six games to even it up before exchanging games to force a tiebreaker, where Stakusic took complete control to win the match.
Stakusic had five aces with 17 double faults in the three-hour, four-minute match.
However, she converted eight of her 18 break-point opportunities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
