Business
2020 Stock Market Crash: Worse Times Ahead for Stocks – The Motley Fool Canada


After the 2020 stock market crash, stocks are whipsawing wildly on a mix of good and bad news. Investors are reacting strongly to any positive or negative developments. Even after the latest rally, which saw the headline Dow Jones Industrial Average gain 1,000 points in a single session, stocks are still substantially lower than at the start of 2020. The Dow has lost 23% for the year to date while the S&P/TSX Composite Index has shed 21%.
The recent rally can be attributed to Washington’s announcement of a US$2 trillion stimulus package to battle the economic impact of the coronavirus.
Some of the biggest beneficiaries will be among the sectors most harshly affected by the coronavirus, includes airline, retail, manufacturing and entertainment stocks. While the latest announcement has breathed life into beaten down stocks and sparked a renewed sense of optimism, it may not be enough in the short term.
Poor short-term outlook
Based upon the experience of Italy and Spain, there is likely to be a surge in U.S. coronavirus cases and related fatalities. When that occurs, it will spook an already extremely nervous Wall Street, causing stocks to tumble further.
Even recent stimulus measures won’t be enough to prevent further falls and a prolonged bear market. Economic stimulus including rate cuts announced by central banks earlier this month failed to prevent the Dow from suffering its worst one-day fall ever.
Canadian investors should brace for further weakness. The measures being implemented across the globe to contain the coronavirus and slow its spread are weighing heavily on the economy. Social distancing, mandated quarantine periods and travel bans have caused consumption to decline sharply.
That in turn is weighing on business confidence and earnings. While cheaper credit, because of lower rates, typically sparks higher consumption and business activity, this won’t occur due to the banning of most public activities and implementation of curfews.
The latest oil price collapse, which sees the Brent benchmark trading at around US$30 per barrel, will do little to invigorate the economy for those same reasons.
Some pundits are even claiming that despite the latest stimulus led rally, the stock market has yet to bottom and will fall a further 10%. The economic fallout from the pandemic will be severe and could be worse than the Great Recession of 2008 just over a decade ago.
There are claims by some economists and financial institutions that the U.S. economy has already fallen into recession. If the U.S., the world’s largest economy, slows countries around the globe will follow.
That global recession will be deep, sparking a bear market that could be longer than the one which emerged during the Great Depression and ran for around 17 months.
What investors should do
Despite the 2020 stock market crash and poor short-term outlook for stocks, this is not the time to panic. The key is to ignore the sensationalist headlines.
Instead, focus on your reasons for investing, stick to your plans and stay invested for the long haul. While the short-term outlook for stocks is poor, the economy will certainly return to growth.
By the end of 2019, Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 28% compared to 2008. The S&P/TSX Composite benefited from that economic growth, gaining a whopping 62% since the end of 2008 even after the latest rout.
Some of Canada’s top dividend growth stocks have performed even better. The largest mortgage lender, Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY)(NYSE:RY). After including dividends, it delivered a stunning 253% or a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just under 11%.
Canada’s largest bank will bounce back from the latest market downturn. Royal Bank possesses solid fundamentals including a high credit quality evident from its conservative gross impaired loans ratio of 0.45%. It is also adequately capitalized with a common equity tier one capital ratio of 12%.
Royal Bank’s focus on implementing efficiencies, including expanding its digital footprint, will lower costs and boost profitability — an important strategy to be undertaking in the current difficult operating environment.
Business
Pierre Poilievre is neither for nor against the Liberals' industrial strategy. Quite the opposite – The Globe and Mail
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre reads from last year’s budget as he rises during Question Period on March 29 in Ottawa.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
You would think that a politician as hard-hitting as Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would have something clear to say about the big initiatives that the federal government outlined in its budget.
But somehow the Leader of the Opposition can’t tell us whether he opposes the biggest thing in the Liberal budget.
He can’t say whether he is in favour of a massive, government-subsidized industrial strategy.
We’re not talking here about some baroque measure no one saw coming. We are talking about the largest feature in the government’s new fiscal blueprint.
In Tuesday’s budget, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland outlined an enormous set of industrial subsidies for green technology that reduces emissions that will total $80-billion over the next decade.
This is an expenditure for industrial subsidies on a scale never before attempted in Canada. And we knew it was coming: The Liberal government signalled it was planning to respond to the huge subsidies in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. Ms. Freeland budgeted more new money for those subsidies over the next decade than for health care.
Most of that money is supposed to be spent five to 10 years from now, when there could well be another party in power, possibly under Mr. Poilievre. Companies making investment decisions this year will want to know if a potential prime minister is dead set against the whole idea. Canadians should want to know too.
But on Wednesday, Mr. Poilievre was neither for nor against. Quite the opposite.
Asked whether he is in favour of the hefty investment tax credits for things such as carbon capture and hydrogen, Mr. Poilievre said his Conservatives have been in favour of carbon capture for a long time.
So that’s a yes? Well, no, not exactly.
He said his Conservatives would “study what’s in the budget and we’re going to come up with our own election platform.” Apparently it will be a year or two before we know if Mr. Poilievre thinks that a massive program launched in the 2023 budget is a good step or a colossal waste of money.
Mr. Poilievre responded to those questions by talking about the long delays for approving projects like mines – which is a legitimate point but not an answer to the question of subsidies.
And then for a moment, he made it sound like he thinks the subsidies are an outrage. “I have no doubt that Justin Trudeau will stuff the pockets of foreign multinationals,” he said. That’s pretty biting, except for the fact that we’re not sure whether Mr. Poilievre is in favour of all that pocket-stuffing.
Certainly, no one should expect that the Conservatives would release all their policies in the platform now.
And of course there’s plenty of waffling in politics. On Wednesday, Mr. Trudeau dodged questions of whether his government will ever balance the budget, to avoid admitting it never will. Mr. Poilievre refused to say whether the Conservative government would cancel a proposed dental plan.
But in this case the government of the day is launching a major subsidy program that will cost billions of dollars a year and is supposed to be the cornerstone of a decade-long industrial strategy, and key to climate-change policy, too.
The Official Opposition can’t take a pass on that for two years and claim that its mission is holding the government to account.
It can endorse the idea, but quibble over the details. Or it can oppose the very notion of pouring megabucks into subsidies.
It is evidently an uncomfortable issue for Mr. Poilievre. He has spent a lot of his time in politics railing against corporate handouts. He couldn’t help using that language on Wednesday.
But those subsidies also include a lot of money for carbon capture and storage in the oil patch that Alberta’s United Conservative Premier Danielle Smith wants. Ontario’s Progressive Conservative Premier Doug Ford will be keen on the incentives for electricity and battery plants.
Yet there’s no way around it. This is the time when the issue is being decided, if only because the Liberals have tabled the budget with hulking piles of cash devoted to it. That will set Canada’s industrial policy on a course that is supposed to endure for a decade. An opposition leader should be able to tell us if he’s against it.
Business
As Canadians miss out on benefits, Ottawa promises automatic tax filing is on the way – BNN Bloomberg


The Canada Revenue Agency will pilot a new automatic system next year to help vulnerable Canadians who don’t file their taxes get their benefits.
This week’s federal budget says the Canada Revenue Agency will also present a plan in 2024 to expand the service, following consultations with stakeholders and community organizations.
The move toward automatic tax filing, first promised in the 2020 speech from the throne, is one of several budget measures the Liberals say are meant to help Canadians with the cost of living.
Experts and advocates have called for automatic filing, noting many vulnerable Canadians miss out on benefits to which they are entitled.
Canadians are generally not required to file tax returns every year unless they owe money, but the federal government is increasingly relying on the Canada Revenue Agency to deliver income-tested benefits to individuals.
That includes Canada Child Benefit, as well as the recent top-up to the Canada Housing Benefit and the temporary doubling of the GST tax credit.
A 2020 report co-authored by Jennifer Robson, an associate professor in political management at Carleton University, estimates 10 to 12 per cent of Canadians don’t file their taxes.
Although there were non-filers across all income groups, they were most heavily concentrated in lower income brackets.
The report estimated the value of benefits lost to working-age non-filers was $1.7 billion in 2015.
The federal budget also said the Canada Revenue Agency will expand access to a service set up in 2018 that allows some Canadians with lower or fixed incomes to auto-file simple returns over the telephone.
The budget says that two million Canadians will be eligible for that service, called “File My Return,” by 2025, which is nearly three times the number of people who can use it now.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 30, 2023.
Business
U.S. weekly jobless claims rise by 7k to 198000, gold price climbs – Kitco NEWS
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(Kitco News) The initial weekly jobless claims rose by 7,000 to 198,000 the week to Saturday, surprising the markets with a bigger-than-expected increase.
Economists’ consensus calls projected the initial claims to advance to 196,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 191,000.
The four-week moving average for new claims – often viewed as a more reliable measure of the labor market since it flattens week-to-week volatility – climbed by 2,000 to 198,250. The previous week’s four-week moving average was unrevised at 196,250, the U.S. Labor Department said on Thursday.
Continuing jobless claims, representing the number of people already receiving benefits, were at 1,689,000 during the week ending March 18, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 1,685,000. The previous week’s level was revised down by 9,000.
The four-week moving average was at 1,691,750, an increase of 10,000. And the previous week’s four-week moving average was revised down by 2,250 to 1,681,750.
Traders watch the jobless claims data very closely to gauge its impact on the Federal Reserve’s employment side of the monetary policy mandate.
Gold ticked up to daily highs and then gave up some of those gains, with June Comex gold futures last trading at $1,990.60 an ounce, up 0.31% on the day.
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