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Canada is heading towards a 'Delta-driven' fourth wave, Tam says – CTV News

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OTTAWA —
Canada is headed towards a fourth wave of COVID-19 infections, but how severe of a resurgence it’ll be depends on how many people are fully vaccinated, warns new national modelling released Friday.

The country is seeing an increase in new COVID-19 cases, and thousands more infections are predicted if contacts aren’t contained, the modelling indicates.

The new picture on Canada’s pandemic trajectory shows the serious threat the highly-contagious Delta variant is posing, and the risk that the unvaccinated may be to the country being thrust into a fourth wave of the disease.

“The updated longer-range forecast shows how the epidemic trajectory may evolve through early September. It suggests that we are at the start of the Delta-driven fourth wave, but that the trajectory will depend on ongoing increases in fully vaccinated coverage, and the timing, pace and extent of reopening,” Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said.

After weeks of sustained decline in new cases, the Public Health Agency of Canada is warning that if community-wide contact rates increase too quickly with ongoing reopening efforts, the long-term forecast indicates Canada could experience a “stronger resurgence” of the virus.

Ultimately, factoring in the spread of Delta, hospital capacity could be exceeded this fall or winter if more people don’t get vaccinated, the modelling indicates.

The predominance of the Delta variant “underscores the need for high vaccination coverage and continued caution as restrictions are eased,” the modelling states.

The Public Health Agency of Canada’s aim is to see as many eligible Canadians vaccinated this summer as possible. As of midday Friday, 80.5 per cent of those eligible have received a first dose, while 65.8 per cent of those eligible are now fully vaccinated.

“If we can get to 90 [per cent vaccinated], I’ll be popping over the champagne for sure,” Tam said.

The new data predicts that in the short-term, the case count will continue to increase, meaning the country could see between 2,700 and 11,800 new cases over the next week or so. As of midday Friday, there have been 1,429,937 reported cases nationwide, and by Aug. 8 that number could grow to between 1,432,555 to 1,441,610 cases.

One sign that Canada’s case counts are on an upward trajectory: the national “Rt” or effective reproduction number, recently started trending above one around mid-July, meaning there are “early signs of epidemic growth” in some regions. This comes after the “Rt” had remained out of a growth pattern since April.

“If the ‘Rt’ remains persistently above one for several weeks, with the predominance of the highly contagious Delta variant, we could expect to see a return to rapid epidemic growth, particularly as measures that slow the spread are eased,” said Tam.

PHAC says it saw a five-fold increase in the proportion of Delta cases in June, reminding that Delta cases have an increased risk for hospitalization, and has reduced vaccine effectiveness against a symptomatic infection. Further, the majority of the Delta cases in Canada are in those who are unvaccinated, or are partially vaccinated.

“People seem to be, in certain areas, tired and forgetting about science, which is unfortunate,” said Dr. Lisa Barrett, an infectious disease expert and assistant professor at Dalhousie University in Halifax, in an interview on CTV News Channel.

“We know at this point that we are going to live with the virus… however we don’t have enough data, information, vaccination, ways to treat this virus… we don’t have enough of that knowledge yet to expect to treat this just like another respiratory virus,” she continued.

89.7 PER CENT OF CASES UNVACCINATED

In an indication that the vaccines are working, the modelling does not anticipate the rate of new deaths to increase along with the uptick in new cases.

The modelling shows that regionally, hospitalization rates remain low, with fewer than one per cent of reported cases and fewer than one per cent of hospitalized cases occurring in people who are fully vaccinated.

The flipside of this statistic though, is that 89.7 per cent of all cases are occurring in eligible, but unvaccinated people, and 84.9 per cent of hospitalized cases are people who are unvaccinated. Another 5.3 per cent of cases are in those who are not yet eligible for vaccines, and 4.6 per cent of infections are in those who are partially vaccinated.

Tam said it’s also mostly those who are unvaccinated who are dying after contracting COVID-19.

The federal health officials are now pushing to see a marked increase in vaccination rates in younger populations, warning that if they don’t increase in the coming months, Canada could face a “serious resurgence” this fall or winter.

Deputy Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Howard Njoo called out the approximately 6.3 million eligible Canadians who have yet to roll up their sleeves and get vaccinated.

“What are you waiting for?” said Njoo. “This is all very preventable if people go forward and get vaccinated, so let’s go for it. Let’s go.”

Generally speaking, the rate of vaccination decreases in each younger demographic. During the early stages of the rollout, older generations were often prioritized for vaccination ahead of younger ones.

As of last week the percentages in each age group who are fully vaccinated are:

  • 89 per cent of those aged 70 or older;
  • 81 per cent of those aged 60-69;
  • 70 per cent of those aged 50-59;
  • 63 per cent of those aged 40-49;
  • 54 per cent of those aged 30 to 39;
  • 46 per cent of those aged 18 to 29; and
  • 37 per cent of those aged 12 to 17.

The data also breaks down how each province stacks up on vaccination rates, with Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, and Alberta still having the farthest to go in terms of fully vaccinating its eligible population, while the Yukon and Northwest Territories continue to lead the nation in vaccination rates.

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Loblaw ramps up efforts to capture more customers as it reports profit up in Q3

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Loblaw had a busy third quarter as it ramped up efforts to capture more deal-seeking shoppers, pharmacy customers and immigrant communities, while growing its store footprint and planning for even more expansion in 2025.

President and chief executive officer Per Bank acknowledged the grocer has “done a lot” during his first year as chief executive.

“Now we’re going to perfect what we have done,” he said on an earnings conference call with analysts.

“We have a lot on our plate, and we’re going to perfect it.”

The company’s profit for the quarter rose year-over-year to $777 million or $2.53 per diluted share, up from $621 million or $1.95, boosted by the reversal of a charge at its President’s Choice Bank after a Federal Court of Appeal decision.

Revenue for the quarter totalled $18.54 billion, up from $18.27 billion a year earlier.

Amid the ongoing shift to discount stores by cash-strapped shoppers, Bank said No Frills and Maxi continued to outperform full-service stores.

Loblaw said it opened 25 new No Frills and Maxi stores during the quarter.

Six of these stores were the new small-format No Frills stores, said chief financial officer Richard Dufresne on the call.

“While it’s still early days, we are pleased with customer reactions and overall performance,” he said.

The company also launched a pilot program during the quarter trialling an ultra-discount No Name store format meant to offer savings beyond even its ubiquitous No Frills banner, with two stores opening during the third quarter and another recently opened.

“If it works, we will (add more). If not, we will pivot, take the learnings and apply them to our discount program,” Bank said.

Loblaw recently opened new T&T stores in Ontario and Quebec, and is beginning the banner’s expansion into the U.S. next month.

With Canada’s first-generation immigrant population continuing to grow, the company is also introducing new multicultural products, including offering more private label T&T products at the company’s other stores, said Bank.

Despite the Canadian government’s decision to slow immigration, Dufresne said there’s still growth ahead.

“While it may slow a bit, we still believe that it’s going to grow. And that’s a tailwind that is very positive for grocery players like us,” he said.

The company is also trying to boost food sales at Shoppers Drug Mart, said Bank. The shift toward discount has had a slight impact on food sales there, he said, so Loblaw is responding by lowering prices on several hundred products to encourage more people to shop for food at the pharmacy banner.

Loblaw is continuing its growth into the fourth quarter, with plans to add another 20 new Maxi and No Frills stores, mainly new builds, said Dufresne.

“For the full year 2024, we expect to have opened 50 new stores and converted an additional 42 stores,” he said.

Bank said the company plans to open even more new stores than in 2024 and is opening a new distribution centre in the first quarter.

He acknowledged that the company’s focus on opening more stores will put some pressure on its earnings in the short term.

“I think it’s important to say that we are planning for the long term, not the short term,” he said.

Part of that longer-term strategy is the company’s decision to no longer sell gaming consoles, games and certain electronics like laptops, computers and TVs. Dufresne said those products don’t drive shoppers’ baskets and have an “extremely low margin.”

“More than 80 per cent of the transactions that are on electronics, customers come in and just buy that item and leave. So it’s not good for our business,” he said. “That’s why we’re deciding to exit it.”

The decision to exit electronics, as well as the company’s move to eliminate multi-buy promotions in its discount stores, affect sales in the short term, Dufresne acknowledged.

“Our focus is on adding square footage. So if we have the right business model and that works and resonates with customers, if we just replicate it with new stores, long term, we win. So that’s how we’re thinking about this,” said Dufresne.

The company said that based on the year-to-date investments in its store network and distribution centres, it now expects to invest a net amount of $1.9 billion compared with earlier expectations for $1.8 billion.

Same-store sales at Loblaw’s food stores were up 0.5 per cent,compared with 4.5 per cent last year. After excluding the unfavourable impact of the timing of Thanksgiving, which fell in a different quarter this year, the company said food same-store sales were up about 1.3 per cent.

Drug retail same-store sales were up 2.9 per cent as pharmacy and health-care services same-store sales rose 6.3 per cent, but front store same-store sales fell 0.5 per cent.

In its outlook, the company raised its guidance for full-year adjusted net earnings per common share growth to low double-digits compared with earlier expectations for high single-digits.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L)



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Suncor to return all excess cash to shareholders after hitting debt target early

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Efforts to streamline operations have helped Suncor Energy Inc. hit its debt target, triggering a commitment to pay out 100 per cent of excess funds to shareholders.

The oil and gas giant has been working to make efficiency improvements across its sprawling network as it shifts focus to incremental gains over pricey expansion projects.

The efforts yielded upstream production of 829,000 barrels per day to mark its best third quarter ever, its highest ever refining throughput of 488,000 barrels per day and highest ever refined sales at 612,000 barrels per day.

“This is now back to back to back quarterly records,” said chief executive Rich Kruger on an earnings call Wednesday.

Suncor’s efforts to ease bottlenecks and cost improvements include everything from new maintenance techniques to its shift to bigger, autonomous trucks. They include spending $1 million to increase its base plant capacity to 100,000 barrels a day from 65,000, and spending $500,000 to increase Firebag production by between 6,000 and 10,000 barrels a day, with both creating upwards of $100 million of additional free funds flow per year, said Kruger.

The efforts also include everything down to the material in the totes it uses to receive additives in, said Dave Oldreive, executive vice-president of downstream.

“It sounds like a small thing. It’s worth $50,000 a year, not a big deal in the big scheme of things, but you add those up, we get 15,000 people in this company doing that, we’re going to continue to drive improvements.”

The higher production helped it earn $2.02 billion in its third quarter, up from $1.54 billion a year earlier.

It also helped Suncor reduce its debt by more than $1.4 billion in the quarter to achieve its net debt target of $8 billion ahead of many external forecasts, the company said. Hitting that triggered its commitment to pay out 100 per cent of excess funds to shareholders, up from 50 per cent at the start of the year.

Suncor returned $1.5 billion to shareholders in the quarter through share buybacks and dividends, while it boosted its dividend by five per cent to 57 cents per share.

The company is also tracking above the high end of its guidance on several measures so far in the fourth quarter, said Kruger, while the challenge next year will be to keep the improvements coming.

“What will be very key for us in 2025 too is holding the gains of 2024. We’ve made a lot of progress on cost, discipline, asset reliability and things. We’re trying to be sure whether we institutionalize those and don’t slip back at all.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SU)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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In the news today: Justin Trudeau and Canada criticized by Donald Trump’s appointees

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Here is a roundup of stories from The Canadian Press designed to bring you up to speed…

Trump’s appointees have criticized Trudeau, warned of border issues with Canada

Donald Trump’s second administration is starting to take shape, and many of the people landing top jobs have been critical of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and security at Canada’s border. Fen Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa and co-chair of the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations, says there are not many friends to Canada in Trump’s camp yet. The president-elect tapped Mike Waltz to be national security adviser amid increasing geopolitical instability. Waltz has repeatedly slammed Trudeau on social media for his handling of issues related to China and recently said Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was going to send Trudeau packing in the next Canadian election. New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, Trump’s choice for ambassador to the United Nations, has expressed concerns on social media about security at the Canadian border.

Chrystia Freeland says carbon rebate for small businesses will be tax-free

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the Canada carbon rebate for small businesses will be tax-free. In a statement posted to X late Tuesday, Freeland clarified the parameters of the program after an advocacy group for small business raised concerns that the rebate would be a taxable benefit. Dan Kelly, president and CEO of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, posted on X soon after that post that he had received a call from Freeland, who offered “assurance” that the rebate would be tax-free. In a letter to Freeland Nov. 6, the CFIB said it had initially been told by the Canada Revenue Agency the rebate would be tax-free, but was subsequently told by the Finance Department that the rebate was actually taxable. The Canada carbon rebate for small businesses was a measure introduced in this year’s federal budget, in which $2.5 billion of carbon price revenue would be paid back to some 600,000 small and medium-sized businesses.

Here’s what else we’re watching…

Warning to avoid sick birds amid rise of avian flu

Encounters with sick or dead birds are raising concerns after B.C.’s Health Ministry said the first suspected human case of bird flu contracted in Canada had been detected in the province. Provincial health officer Doctor Bonnie Henry says it’s very likely the teenage patient was infected by exposure to a sick animal or something in the environment, but it’s a “real possibility” that the source is never determined. Henry says the virus is circulating in wild foul, including geese, and is advising that people avoid contact with any sick or dead birds. She says human-to-human transmission is uncommon, but people may be infected by inhaling the virus or in droplets that get into the eyes.

Mainstream porn’s ascent, and the price women pay

When legal scholar Elaine Craig started researching pornography, she knew little about websites such as Pornhub or xHamster — and she did not anticipate that the harsh scenes she would view would at times force her to step away. Four years later, the Dalhousie University law professor has published a book that portrays in graphic detail the rise of ubiquitous free porn, concluding it is causing harm to the “sexual integrity” of girls, women and the community at large. The 386-page volume, titled “Mainstreaming Porn” (McGill-Queen’s University Press), begins by outlining how porn-streaming firms claim to create “safe spaces” for adults to view “consensual, perfectly legal sex,” as their moderators — both automated and human — keep depictions of illegal acts off the sites. But as the 49-year-old professor worked through the topic, she came to question these claims. She says depictions of sex that find their way onto the platforms are far from benign.

Atwood weighs in on U.S. election at Calgary forum

Margaret Atwood is telling people not to be afraid after last week’s U.S. election, which delivered the Republicans’ Donald Trump another White House win. The renowned Canadian author says it’s not because something horrible isn’t happening, but because fear makes people feeble. The author of “The Handmaid’s Tale” has been called prescient, but she says she had no prediction for how the American vote would go. Many have drawn parallels between that 1985 dystopian novel, set in a totalitarian state where women are treated as property, and the recent rollback of reproductive rights south of the border. Atwood says the ideas for that book were inspired by things that were already happening, or the religious right was already discussing.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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