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India's economy likely rebounded in April-June amid pandemic risks – Reuters India

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  • April-June growth forecast at 20% y/y vs 1.6% in Jan-March
  • Economists fear rise in virus cases poses risk to recovery
  • Economy seen reaching pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022/23
  • Govt reforms to help boost economic growth in coming years
  • India to release GDP data at 1200 GMT

NEW DELHI, Aug 31 (Reuters) – India’s economy likely rebounded in the April-June quarter from a deep slump last year helped by improved manufacturing and in spite of a devastating second wave of COVID-19 cases.

Asia’s third-largest economy suffered one of the biggest hits among major economies, contracting 7.3% in 2020/21, after a nationwide lockdown early last year. But the economy has not been as badly affected from the second wave in April-May this year due to less stringent lockdowns by state governments.

However, many analysts say the risk of spiking infections from the Delta variant and the slow pace of vaccinations in some states could hit India’s growth momentum, with the economy unlikely to reach its pre-pandemic level of about $2.9 trillion before the middle of next fiscal year beginning April.

A Reuters survey of 41 economists projected gross domestic product grew 20.0% in the June quarter from a year earlier, versus a record contraction of 24.4% in the same quarter a year earlier.

If the median poll forecast is realised, it would be the fastest growth since the mid-1990s when official quarterly data was available, and up sharply from 1.6% in the previous quarter. read more

The Reserve Bank of India(RBI), which has kept its monetary policy loose, has forecast annual growth of 9.5% in the current fiscal year, although it has warned about the possibility of a third wave of the pandemic. read more

Many sectors like retail, auto sales, farm output, construction and exports have picked up since June, supporting the government’s claim of a fast recovery, but some sectors such as transport, tourism and consumer spending remain weak.

“Nearly one million of about 4 million trucks plying long-distance cargo are still off the road, hit by a closure of many businesses and a recent surge in virus cases in the state of Kerala and neighbouring Tamil Nadu,” said Anjani Mandal, CEO of Bengaluru-based Fortigo Logistics.

A spike in cases of the more transmissible Delta variant has caused supply chain disruptions for many manufacturers, which could weigh on factory output and add to gloom for an already fragile recovery, he said.

Unlike advanced economies, which announced massive stimulus to support consumers, Prime Minister Narendra Modi opted for raising spending on infrastructure, privatisation of state companies and tax reforms to bolster mid-term growth prospects, while providing free foodgrains to the poor. read more

“The government’s measures, if successful, could put the economy on a high growth path of 7.5-8% in coming years,” said N.R. Bhanumurthy, vice-chancellor, Bengaluru Ambedkar School of Economics University, while forewarning of short-term risks this year.

($1 = 73.4875 Indian rupees)

Editing by Jacqueline Wong

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Economy

Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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