adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Economy

'A longer road to recovery:' Canada's economy shrinks, catching economists by surprise – Financial Post

Published

 on


First contraction since the depths of the pandemic last year

Article content

Canada’s economic recovery lost momentum in the second quarter after posting consistent growth since the depths of the pandemic and delivered a shock to forecasters.

Advertisement

Article content

The economy contracted 0.3 per cent between April and June, or 1.1 per cent on an annual basis, Statistics Canada reported on Aug. 31. Adding to the dismal report, the federal agency delivered preliminary data for July that showed gross domestic product declined 0.4 per cent, a worrisome start to the third quarter.

A decline in housing activity and exports overshadowed gains in business investment, which caused a drag on the economic recovery. It’s the first quarterly drop in GDP since the second quarter of 2020, which saw the economy contract 11.3 per cent, or 38 per cent annualized.

The data completely missed economists’ estimates, which had anticipated growth of 2.5 per cent for the period and quieted initial optimism about broader business re-openings as much of the country exited the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Advertisement

Article content

“The Canadian economy was not quite as resilient as pretty much everybody thought and there’s more ground to make up at this point,” said Benjamin Reitzes, economist and Canadian rates and macro strategist at Bank of Montreal. “It’s a longer road to recovery.”

The surprising figures also contrasted with the Bank of Canada’s estimates of two-per-cent growth for the quarter, which means they will likely revise down their forecast on economic growth. The data suggests the recovery could be prolonged for an extended period of time than previously thought and reinforces the trickiness that policy-makers have to contend with in steering the economy.

For one, housing has been a sector that experienced a flurry of activity over the pandemic, driven in part by historically low interest rates and extraordinary government stimulus. But, in recent months the real estate market has seen a cooling, which is reflected in the GDP data. Homeownership transfer costs, which includes all costs associated with the sale of a home, declined 17.7 per cent in the quarter.

Advertisement

Article content

Exports also experienced negative growth in the quarter, dropping four per cent. Reitzes attributed the declines to woes in the manufacturing and auto sectors that are currently battling global chip shortages and supply-chain disruptions.

At the same time, business investment grew 5.7 per cent in the second quarter but was not enough to recover the losses in housing and exports.

Early July data, the first month that sets up the third quarter, experienced unexpected declines largely attributable to drops in retail, construction and manufacturing activity and further details will be provided in the next monthly GDP report in October.

  1. Conservative Party of Canada Leader Erin O'Toole speaks during a news conference on August 31, 2021 in Ottawa.

    Erin O’Toole says Canada on ‘road to recession’ after GDP miss

  2. Canadians reported the sharpest one-week decline in confidence since the depth of the pandemic last year.

    Canadians’ confidence plunges the most since the darkest days of the pandemic

  3. The number of businesses planning to implement price increases grew from the second quarter this year, up to 21.7 per cent from 19.9 per cent.

    Businesses to raise prices as party leaders contend with rising cost of living

  4. None

    Tiff Macklem’s dashboard: Charting economy’s exit from pandemic puzzle

Advertisement

Article content

The numbers could figure into the central bank’s interest rate announcement next week though they likely won’t move the needle, said Sri Thanabalasingam, a senior economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank. Rather, policy-makers will likely take on a more cautious tone in response to the data and hold both the interest rate and bond purchases. The central bank in July pared back its bond purchases to $2 billion per week.

Because the data knocks some confidence into how well Canada’s economy manages through viral COVID-19 waves, that throws into question how badly the Delta variant will impact businesses and Canadians looking ahead.. “It’s a downside risk to the economic forecast,” Thanabalasingam said. “It could further delay the economy from getting back to full capacity.”

• Email: bbharti@postmedia.com | Twitter:

_____________________________________________________________

 For more stories like this, sign up for the FP Economy newsletter.

_____________________________________________________________

Advertisement

In-depth reporting on the innovation economy from The Logic, brought to you in partnership with the Financial Post.

Comments

Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notifications—you will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings.

Adblock test (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

Published

 on

 

OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

Published

 on

 

OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending