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Shares, bonds brace for high U.S. inflation, hawkish Fed

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Major share markets were muted on Monday as investors count down to another U.S. inflation reading that could well set the seal on an early rate hike from the Federal Reserve, lifting bond yields and punishing tech stocks.

The explosion in coronavirus cases globally also threatens to crimp consumer spending and growth just as the Fed is considering turning off the liquidity spigots, tough timing for markets addicted to endless cheap money.

That made for cautious trading with S&P 500 futures off 0.1% and Nasdaq futures up 0.1%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures both edged up 0.2%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.2%, while South Korea lost 1.0%.

Chinese blue chips were little changed as recent policy easing was balanced by lingering concerns over the property sector.

Analysts fear the U.S. consumer price report on Wednesday will show core inflation climbing to its highest in decades at 5.4% and usher in a rate rise as soon as March.

While the December payrolls number did miss forecasts, the drop in the jobless rate to just 3.9% and strength in wages suggested the economy was running short of workers.

“It was consistent with the Fed’s evolving view that the labour market is getting close to or is already at maximum employment with wage pressures building,” said analysts at NatWest Markets.

“This should add to speculation about a March hike, and we have pulled our expectation for the Fed’s lift-off to occur in March instead of June.”

A raft of Fed officials will be out to offer their latest thinking this week, including Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Lael Brainard who face confirmation hearings.

Markets quickly shifted to reflect the risks with futures implying a greater than 70% chance of a rise to 0.25% in March and at least two more hikes by year end.

Technology and growth stocks tumbled as investors switched to banks and energy firms, while bonds took a beating.

Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes were near highs last seen in early 2020 at 1.765%, having shot up 25 basis points last week in their biggest move since late 2019. The next chart target is the 1.95/1.97% area. [U/S]

“We think that the increase in long-dated Treasury yields has further to run,” said Nicholas Farr, an economist at Capital Economics.

“Markets may still be underestimating how far the federal funds rate will rise in the next few years, so our forecast is for the 10-year yield to rise by around another 50bp, to 2.25%, by the end of 2023.”

The Fed’s hawkish shift has tended to benefit the U.S. dollar, though it ran into profit taking on Friday after the payrolls report failed to meet the market’s lofty expectations.

The dollar index was flat at 95.764, after falling 0.5% on Friday, but has support at 95.568.

The euro bounced to $1.1354, leaving it near the top of the recent $1.1184/1.1382 trading range. The Japanese yen got a break from its recent bear run to stand at 115.64, as the dollar faded from last week’s 116.34 peak.

In commodity markets, gold was a shade firmer at $1,795 an ounce but short of its January top at $1,831.

Oil prices held steady, having climbed 5% last week helped in part by supply disruptions from the unrest in Kazakhstan and outages in Libya. [O/R]

Brent added 7 cents to $81.82 a barrel, while U.S. crude stood unchanged at $78.90.

 

(Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Investment

S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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