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Economy

UK economy finally bigger than before pandemic in November

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Britain‘s economy grew strongly in November to finally surpass its size just before the country went into its first COVID-19 lockdown, official data showed on Friday.

The world’s fifth-biggest economy expanded by a much faster than expected 0.9% in November – before the latest wave of COVID-19 infections and restrictions for many firms – leaving it 0.7% bigger than it was in February 2020, the ONS said.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast monthly gross domestic product growth of 0.4% for November.

“It’s amazing to see the size of the economy back to pre-pandemic levels in November – a testament to the grit and determination of the British people,” finance minister Rishi Sunak said.

Other economies have already recovered their pre-COVID size, chief among them the United States.

Britain’s economy shrank by more than 9% in 2020, one of the biggest pandemic slumps among the world’s rich nations.

Despite November’s growth acceleration, GDP probably took a fresh hit in December when the Omicron coronavirus variant swept Europe, and the loss of momentum is likely to have stretched into January with many firms reporting severe staff absences and consumers still wary of going out.

On Thursday, data showed record levels of staff absence due to COVID-19 around the turn of the year.

But health officials think the Omicron infections wave has now peaked in Britain and analysts say the blow to the economy is likely to be short-lived, allowing the Bank of England to continue raising interest rates this year.

The ONS said, data revisions aside, GDP in quarterly terms would reach or surpass its pre-coronavirus level in the October-December period of 2021, as long as economic output does not fall by more than 0.2% in December.

The BoE’s current forecasts show GDP returning to its size at the end of 2019 in the first quarter of 2022.

EARLY CHRISTMAS SHOPPERS, MASS JABS

The ONS said retailers had a strong November – when many consumers bought Christmas presents earlier than usual – while architects, couriers and accountants also had a bumper month.

Construction recovered from several weak months as raw materials became easier to source after problems in global supply chains.

The country’s rush to give booster vaccinations against COVID-19 and its test-and-trace programme provided extra momentum to the GDP figures.

Britain’s economy will still face challenges in the months ahead, even once coronavirus restrictions known as “plan B” are relaxed.

Consumers are facing an inflation rate that is expected to reach a 30-year high of 6% or more in April – when energy tariffs will leap by an estimated 50% – and an increase in social security contributions also starting that month.

“While the UK economy should rebound once Plan B measures are lifted, surging inflation and persistent supply chain disruption may mean that the UK’s economic growth prospects remain under pressure for much of 2022,” Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said.

Sterling edged up against the U.S. dollar and the euro after the GDP data.

Separately, the ONS released trade data showing that Britain’s goods trade deficit narrowed slightly to 11.3 billion pounds in November from 11.8 billion pounds in October.

Imports from non-European Union countries were higher than from EU countries for the 11th consecutive month, and the gap was at its widest point of the year, the ONS said.

Britain’s trading relationship with the EU has been hit by the introduction of new post-Brexit rules after the country left the bloc’s single market at the start of 2021.

 

(Writing by William Schomberg and Alistair Smout; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge, Toby Chopra, Peter Graff)

Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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