Once Canada’s boomtown, the latest census from Statistics Canada suggests Wild Rose Country is becoming just another Canadian province.
For years, Alberta enjoyed population growth that towered over the rest of the country’s. Energy sector jobs and plenty of them — some offering six-figure paycheques with no university requirement — drew the young and ambitious from sea to sea to sea.
But the 2021 census shows the province has actually fallen behind the national average in growth. There are now 4,262,635 Albertans, 4.8 per cent more than in 2016. The Canadian growth rate was 5.2 per cent.
It’s quite a switch. The 2016 census showed Alberta growing at the rate of 11.6 per cent — more than double the national rate.
Ten years ago, seven of Canada’s eight fastest-growing census districts were in Alberta. This year, the situation is almost reversed — Alberta has seven of the 10 fastest-shrinking municipalities in the country.
For the first time in over 25 years, Calgary isn’t among Canada’s five fastest-growing cities.
Still, don’t look for tumbleweeds blowing down the main streets of Wild Rose Country just yet. Analysts say Alberta is shifting to an economy that looks a lot more like the rest of Canada’s, maybe even a little stronger.
“The source of growth and opportunity going forward will be very similar to what you seen in other economies,” said Trevor Tombe, a University of Calgary economist.
“The growth will be driven by services and increasingly tech. Alberta’s economy is stronger than others, even though the pattern of its growth will approach what we see elsewhere.”
Ten years ago, billions of dollars a year were pouring in to the province’s energy industry, especially the oilsands. Those mines and processing plants are now built.
“I don’t think we have any prospect for those kind of unusual growth rates because they were driven in large part by investment in these incredibly expensive large oilsands facilities,” said Tombe. “Most of that past growth was tied to investment flows that are very, very unlikely to return.”
Oil production reached an all-time record last year. But jobs in the sector haven’t entirely recovered and remain below their 2019 peak.
Albertans are adapting, said Brad Perry of Calgary’s economic development office. In 2019, his organization began offering a seven-month program for oil and gas professionals to take their skills and learn how to use them in other sectors such as finance, clean energy or agriculture.
Its first year saw 1,100 applications for 100 spots. About 70 per cent of its graduates got jobs in their new fields. This year, the Energy to Digital Growth Education and Upskilling Project has filled all of its 320 spaces.
“It’s akin to your stock portfolio,” Perry said. “Maybe we’ve over-indexed (in energy) a little bit and we need to let some of these other sectors start to get a little bit of sunshine.”
“It takes a lot of courage for somebody who has that kind of experience to step out of their comfort zone and really dive in.”
Statistics Canada has noted an outflow of young people from the Alberta in recent years.
But the province’s affordable housing market is expected to help attract and keep young people. Although prices have risen, they’re nowhere near the 25-per-cent growth seen in some Ontario and British Columbia markets.
A recent study from the mortgage brokerage Edison Financial found Edmonton and Calgary had the second- and third-highest rates in the Canada of home ownership among people aged 20-39.
“Millennials are finding it very favourable to put in roots in the Edmonton area and start families and making this their home because it’s more affordable than other places,” said Paul Gravelle of the Realtors Association of Edmonton. “I think it’s a pretty big factor.”
Even in its darkest economic days, said Tombe, Alberta still had Canada’s strongest economy. Don’t look for that to change.
“Alberta’s economy is stronger than others, even though the pattern of its growth will approach what we see elsewhere. The growth rates will be slower than we’ve historically seen.
“(But) over the long term, Alberta remains poised to be the growth leader in Canada.”
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
