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Here's How China's Lockdowns Are Rippling Through the Economy – Financial Post

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(Bloomberg) — China’s lockdowns to contain the country’s worst Covid outbreak since early 2020 have battered the economy, stalling production in major cities like Shanghai, and halting spending by millions of people shut in their homes. 

The restrictions are intended to eradicate any trace of the virus in the community, but they’ve also pressured everything from manufacturing and trade to inflation and food prices. 

Premier Li Keqiang has repeatedly warned of risks to economic growth, telling local authorities on Monday they should “add a sense of urgency” when implementing existing policies. The government is holding firm to its Covid Zero approach for now, a strategy economists say will push growth down to 5% this year, below the official target of around 5.5%.

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Here’s a deeper look at how the lockdowns are impacting critical sectors across the world’s second-largest economy. 

Commodities Hit

China posted sluggish commodities imports in March, as elevated prices due to the war in Ukraine and tightening virus restrictions took their toll on demand. 

Natural gas purchases were worst affected, dropping below 8 million tons to their lowest level since October 2020. Crude and coal purchases were also running well behind last year’s schedule.

Chinese demand for jet fuel is projected to drop by 25,000 barrels per day from a year earlier, a 3.5% fall, according to the International Energy Agency. The IEA previously expected 10,000 barrels per day of growth. The number of daily flights in China, as averaged over seven days, has fallen below the lowest level seen in 2020, with less than 2,700 active flights on Tuesday, according to Airportia, a real-time flight tracker.

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China’s domestic metals fabricators are facing hurdles to transport raw materials and finished products, which have led to output cuts. Six out of twelve copper-rod plants in Shanghai’s neighboring provinces surveyed by Shanghai Metals Market earlier said they either have halted or plan to halt output. The researcher also predicted a rise in aluminum inventories.

Meanwhile, Chinese buyers have slashed liquefied natural gas purchases in the world’s biggest LNG importer as prices soar and domestic demand stalls. Imports in the first quarter fell 14% from the same period last year, according to shipping data, and private companies are spurning offers to use once-highly coveted slots at state-owned receiving terminals.

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Port Congestion 

Shanghai’s city-wide lockdown has created congestion at the world’s largest port, with queues of vessels building there and at other stops handling diverted shipments. The number of container ships waiting off Shanghai as of April 11 was 15% higher than a month earlier, according to Bloomberg shipping data. 

A shortage of port workers in Shanghai is slowing the delivery of documentation needed for ships to unload cargoes, according to ship owners and traders. Meanwhile, vessels carrying metals like copper and iron ore are left stranded offshore as trucks are unable to send goods from the port to processing mills, they said.

Data on Wednesday also showed the lockdowns having a notable impact on imports, which fell 0.1% on year in March, the first contraction since August 2020.

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Manufacturing Woes

China’s purchasing managers surveys show manufacturing contracted in March, with small and medium-sized firms particularly shaken by operational snags. The Caixin index, based on surveys of smaller, export-oriented businesses, dropped to its worst level since the start of the pandemic two years ago. 

Some large manufacturing firms have been able to keep operations going by adopting a so-called closed loop system, in which employees were kept at factory locations and tested regularly. However, those protocols aren’t perfect: One member of a European Union trade group said last week that work can be “very, very difficult,” even with permission to operate amid restrictions.

Solar companies are seeing a “severe impact” on both panel production and installations, according to a survey conducted by the Shanghai Solar Energy Society. Wafer production has been suspended in some factories in the coastal region close to Shanghai, driving up prices in recent weeks, Jefferies analysts said in a note.

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Tech Disrupted

Some technology companies have suspended production as China’s restrictive policies weigh on a sector already contending with a shortage of components.

Most major tech manufacturers — from Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and iPhone maker Foxconn Technology Group — froze operations in the early days of Shanghai’s outbreak. Many have since resumed after setting up closed-loop systems. 

As of Wednesday, more than than 30 Taiwanese companies including Pegatron Corp. and Macbook maker Quanta Computer Inc. had halted production in eastern China’s electronics hubs because of Covid rules. 

Logistics jams are constricting shipments of components, draining inventories to the point where some manufacturers including Pegatron, Wistron Corp. and Compal Electronics Inc. are down to just a few weeks’ stocks, consultancy Trendforce estimates. The ongoing global supply crunch could worsen if local manufacturing is disrupted, constraining stock of computers and gaming consoles to smartphones, servers and electric vehicles.

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Automotive Pain 

Overall passenger vehicle sales slid 10.9% last month, suggesting pressure in the massive car market. 

Some automakers are hitting production snags because of lockdowns. Tesla Inc.’s Shanghai factory has been shut down since March 28 because of restrictions in the city. The plant typically produces more than 2,000 cars every day, according to an estimate earlier this month from Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities Inc. 

Volkswagen AG was also forced to suspend production in Shanghai this month, while Chinese EV upstart Nio Inc. said Saturday it halted production and delayed deliveries because many suppliers had to close shop. 

Auto parts maker Robert Bosch GmbH said Monday it shuttered two of its factories in China and operated closed-loop systems at two others, adding that it was seeing “temporary effects on logistics and supply chain sourcing.”

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Construction Snags

Domestic sales of excavators — a leading indicator for construction — plunged almost 64% in March from a year ago, indicating strain in the sector.

China’s home sales slump also deepened last month: The 100 biggest companies in the debt-ridden property industry saw a 53% drop in sales from a year earlier, according to preliminary data from China Real Estate Information Corp. The decline was the steepest this year.

Steel rebar inventory in China suggests construction activity “may have shifted to a lower gear,” according to analysis published last week by David Qu, an economist covering China for Bloomberg Economics.

Inflation Risks

The lockdowns have driven up food costs and may endanger the nation’s ability to secure enough grains for the year as the curbs complicate China’s important spring planting season. 

Fresh vegetable prices jumped 17.2% on year in March, compared to a drop of 0.1% in February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed this week. Chinese farmers in some parts of the northeast, which produces more than a fifth of China’s national grain output, have had to contend with restrictions that prevent them from plowing their fields and sowing seeds.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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N.B. election: Parties’ answers on treaty rights, taxes, Indigenous participation

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FREDERICTON – The six chiefs of the Wolastoqey Nation in New Brunswick distributed a survey on Indigenous issues to political parties ahead of the provincial election, which is scheduled to kick off Thursday. Here are some of the answers from the Progressive Conservative, Liberal and Green parties.

Q: How does your party plan to demonstrate a renewed commitment to recognizing our joint treaty responsibilities and acknowledging that the lands and waters of this territory remain unceded?

Progressive Conservative: The party respectfully disagrees with the assertion that land title has been unceded. This is a legal question that has not been determined by the courts.

Liberal: When we form government, the first conversations the premier-designate will have is with First Nations leaders. We will publicly and explicitly acknowledge your treaty rights, and our joint responsibility as treaty people.

Green: The Green Party acknowledges that New Brunswick is situated on the unceded and unsurrendered territories of the Wolastoqiyik, Mi’kmaq and Peskotomuhkati peoples, covered by the Treaties of Peace and Friendship. Our party is committed to establishing true nation-to-nation relationships with First Nations, grounded in mutual respect and co-operation as the treaties intended.

Q: How does your party propose to approach the issue of provincial tax agreements with First Nations?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick operates in a balanced and fair manner with all organizations, institutions and local governments that represent the citizens of this province, including First Nations. Therefore, we cannot offer tax agreements that do not demonstrate a benefit to all citizens.

Liberal: Recent discussions with First Nations chiefs shed light on the gaps that existed in the previous provincial tax agreements with First Nations. Our party is committed to negotiating and establishing new tax agreements with First Nations that address the local needs and priorities and ensure all parties have a fair deal.

Green: The Green Party is committed to fostering a respectful relationship with First Nations in New Brunswick and strongly opposes Premier Blaine Higgs’s decision to end tax-sharing agreements. We believe reinstating these agreements is crucial for supporting the economic development and job creation in First Nation communities.

Q: How will your party ensure more meaningful participation of Indigenous communities in provincial land use and resource management decision-making?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick has invested significant resources in developing a robust duty to consult and engagement process. We are interested in fully involving First Nations in the development of natural resources, including natural gas development. We believe that the development of natural gas is better for the environment — because it allows for the shutdown of coal-fired power plants all over the globe — and it allows for a meaningful step along the path to reconciliation.

Liberal: Our party is focused on building strong relations with First Nations and their representatives based on mutual respect and a nation-to-nation relationship, with a shared understanding of treaty obligations and a recognition of your rights. This includes having First Nations at the table and engaged on all files, including land-use and resource management.

Green: We will develop a new Crown lands management framework with First Nations, focusing on shared management that respects the Peace and Friendship Treaties. We will enhance consultation by developing parameters for meaningful consultation with First Nations that will include a dispute resolution mechanism, so the courts become the last resort, not the default in the face of disagreements.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Canadian Coast Guard crew member lost at sea off Newfoundland

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – A crew member of a Canadian Coast Guard ship has been lost at sea off southern Newfoundland.

The agency said in a release Wednesday that an extensive search and rescue effort for the man was ended Tuesday evening.

He was reported missing on Monday morning when the CCGS Vincent Massey arrived in St. John’s, N.L.

The coast guard says there was an “immediate” search on the vessel for the crew member and when he wasn’t located the sea and air search began.

Wednesday’s announcement said the agency was “devastated to confirm” the crew member had been lost at sea, adding that decisions to end searches are “never taken lightly.”

The coast guard says the employee was last seen on board Sunday evening as the vessel sailed along the northeast coast of Newfoundland.

Spokeswoman Kariane Charron says no other details are being provided at this time and that the RCMP will be investigating the matter as a missing person case.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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