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Doug Schweitzer says Alberta is on track for more than just recovery.
Doug Schweitzer said the provincial economy will expand by 5.4 per cent, among the best in Canada
Doug Schweitzer says Alberta is on track for more than just recovery.
In a first-quarter update on Friday, the economy, jobs and innovation minister pointed to different indicators, including record growth in venture capital investment, that indicate strong economic growth for the province.
He said the economy is expected to fully recover to 2014 levels this year, expanding by 5.4 per cent, among the best in Canada.
This is despite skyrocketing inflation and rising interest rates that are cramping the buying power of Albertans.
“Right now, in Alberta, we are forecasted to lead the country in growth this year and next year,” he said at a news conference. “Our focus right now has been getting people back to work and we’re seeing … with the trends we’re anticipating the unemployment rate will continue to drop in Alberta.”
Inflation in March hit 6.7 per cent nationally and 6.5 per cent in Alberta, the highest year-over-year mark since 1991. This has been driven by many factors, including energy prices, supply chain issues, workforce shortages, weather events, red hot real estate and other lingering pandemic impacts. This has caused the cost of living index to increase by three percentage points or more in most categories.
To counter this, the Bank of Canada has increased interest rates to one per cent from 0.25 per cent, including 50 base points on April 13. Many economists expect the rate to continue to rise to at least two per cent by the end of the year and likely sooner.
Alberta’s workforce numbers are improving, which, at 6.5 per cent unemployment, is the province’s lowest mark since December 2018. Through March, Alberta has added 22,400 jobs while 12,000 businesses have incorporated in that time, increasing weekly earnings by two percentage points year-over-year in January 2022.
Growth has been across all sectors, according to the minister, including logistics, aerospace, renewable energy, finance and technology, further diversifying the economy.
This is building off of the momentum from last year, which saw a record $561 million in venture capital investment in Alberta, up exponentially over previous years. Alberta, however, was outpaced by other provinces like Ontario and B.C.
In a quarterly snapshot by Calgary Economic Development released earlier this week, the CED said Alberta still only made up about four per cent of total national venture capital investment.
Schweitzer said that will change this year. He said the province has set a new quarterly investment record with $200 million worth of investment and there is more on the way.
“It’s like a hockey stick,” he told Postmedia. “We signed a record number of Series A financing — mid-level venture capital financing — but they’re a little bit smaller than your later stage fundings that are going to happen. Because of the volume of companies that are in that growth stage, we are expecting to see larger and larger financing happen in Alberta.”
He said cities like Toronto and Vancouver are three to five years ahead of where Alberta currently is.
Also key to recovery and growth are commodity prices. Energy, especially, has been riding high for months and has only been strengthened due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The price of oil has also aided the provincial government in putting forward a balanced budget while using conservative forecasts for pricing.
Schweitzer pointed to other sectors experiencing growth, like manufacturing, with sales of $16.1 billion in the first two months of 2022 (up 30.2 per cent year-over-year) while wholesale trade grew by 23.4 per cent with growth in every product category.
According to the report, Alberta also led the country in growth in merchandise exports with more than $28.6 billion in goods through February, up 54.4 per cent. Energy products were at the base of this, up 72.8 per cent.
Consecutive quarters of positive migration to Alberta are helping to fuel the economy as well, with building permits up 7.7 per cent year-over-year.
Twitter: @JoshAldrich03
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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the country’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion in September as imports fell more than exports.
The result compared with a revised deficit of $1.5 billion for August. The initial estimate for August released last month had shown a deficit of $1.1 billion.
Statistics Canada says the results for September came as total exports edged down 0.1 per cent to $63.9 billion.
Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products fell 5.4 per cent as exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys, decreased 15.4 per cent. Exports of energy products dropped 2.6 per cent as lower prices weighed on crude oil exports.
Meanwhile, imports for September fell 0.4 per cent to $65.1 billion as imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products dropped 12.7 per cent.
In volume terms, total exports rose 1.4 per cent in September while total imports were essentially unchanged in September.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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