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Housing prices in Canada could fall 15 per cent by Dec. 2023 after Bank of Canada rate hikes: report – CTV News

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As the Bank of Canada continues to hike rates in order to curb inflation, housing prices in Canada could fall 15 per cent from its peak by the end of next year, a new report says.

The average price of a home in Canada peaked at just over $790,000 in February 2022, marking a 50 per cent increase over two years. But the report, published on Wednesday by Desjardins, says by December 2023, the average national home price could fall to around $675,000.

Since the Bank of Canada began to raise interest rates in order to combat inflation, home prices has steadily declined. Desjardins says that average price of a home in Canada fell 2.6 per cent month-to-month in March and 3.8 per cent in April.

But despite the expected drop, Desjardins notes that $675,000 is still nearly 30 per cent above what it was in December 2019, when the average price of a home was $530,000 in Canada. Jimmy Jean, chief economist and strategist for Desjardins, says he expects the decline in home prices to be “fairly manageable” before stabilizing, citing increasing levels in immigration and a continuous shortage of housing supply amid strong demand.

“Our expectation is for the housing market to cool to moderate, but we’re not expecting any collapse by any measure,” Jean told CTV News on Thursday.

For most homeowners who intend to keep living in their homes for decades to come, including those who jumped into the market near the peak, Jean says this housing correction will only be a small “blip.”

“Housing is an investment normally you make for the long-term,” Jean said. “Ultimately, you’re buying a product to raise a family, to live into. So, over the long term, things will stabilize and pick up again. So, it’s not a major concern from that perspective.”

But it’s a different story for real estate investors who were expecting huge gains from rising housing prices.

“If you rent out a property, sometimes, if you don’t collect enough in terms of rent to make up for the mortgage costs or the utility costs, those decisions were still justified by the idea that prices would keep appreciating,” he said. “Now it’s another story.”

The Bank of Canada is expected to raise rates again by another 50 basis points in July, and bank governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that interest rates may have to spike to 3.0 per cent.

But Desjardins economists believe Macklem won’t have to go all the way to 3.0 per cent and say 2.25 per cent will be enough to slow inflation.

“The Canadian economy is highly rate sensitive,” Jean said. “We think this moderation will be significant and will cause economic growth, and therefore inflation, to slow, and that will remove the necessity for Tiff Macklem and the Bank of Canada to hike all the way to three per cent.”

HOUSING CORRECTION TO BE MOST SEVERE IN MARITIMES

While a 15 per cent drop is what Desjardins forecasts nationally, some regions may experience even bigger corrections, particularly in parts of Canada that saw that steepest pandemic-era home price increases.

After years of population declines, the Maritime provinces saw an explosion in population growth from 2020 and onwards, as the advent of remote work enabled more Canadians from big cities to flock to the east coast, seeking larger and more affordable living spaces.

In turn, P.E.I., Nova Scotia and New Brunswick saw the highest housing price increases in the country. Compared to December 2019 levels, the average price of a home in these provinces rose 62 to 70 per cent in February 2022.

These provinces are also expected to see the largest corrections; Dejardins says housing prices could drop between 18 to 20 per cent.

The Prairies and Newfoundland and Labrador saw the smallest pandemic-era spikes in housing prices. These provinces rely heavily on oil, and crude prices took a nosedive in the early months of the pandemic. Home prices in these regions are only expected to fall between two to 10 per cent by December 2023, the Desjardins report says.

B.C.’s home prices are also expected to fall 15 per cent, closely mirroring the national average, while prices in Quebec will fall 12 per cent thanks to its “much greater housing affordability and less overvalued market,” the report states.

Ontario’s home prices are expected to decline 18 per cent, but these drops will vastly differ across regions. Much like the Maritimes, the communities within a few hours drive from Toronto saw home prices jump 70 per cent between December 2019 and February 2022 as many Canadians began to work from home. Desjardins says outside of the Greater Toronto Area, home prices could fall 20 per cent, with the biggest declines expected in Bancroft, Chatham Kent and Windsor-Essex.

With files from CTV National News Parliament Hill Correspondent Kevin Gallagher.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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