Today the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the CPI (Consumer Price Index) for May. The report confirmed what North Americans have known and been entrenched in; the fact that inflation continues to spiral out of control, and is now at the highest point in 41 years. The CPI rose 0.3% in April. This takes last month’s inflationary pressures to the highest year-over-year (YoY) change in 41 years. This means If you were born at or after 1982 you are witnessing and living through the highest monthly uptick in inflation (YoY) ever.
Just The Facts
Forecasts varied by economists polled by Bloomberg, Reuters, and The Wall Street Journal. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal predicted that the CPI would come in at 8.3% increasing by 0.7% MoM. Economists polled by Reuters also predicted that the CPI would rise 0.7% MoM. Economists polled by Bloomberg News said that the CPI would reveal that inflation is tracking at about the same monthly pace and that the probability for a higher level of inflation YoY was high.
Economists from all three poles got it wrong. Economists polled by Bloomberg, Reuters, and The Wall Street Journal all underestimated the MoM rise in inflationary pressures.
The largest contributor to this major uptick in inflationary pressures is the cost of energy which rose 34.6%. However, almost all components recorded record-breaking increases including food costs which rose an average of 10.1%. The cost of housing increased by 5.5%, and commodities as a whole increased by 8.5% all on a year-over-year basis.
What this means for consumers; more hardship ahead
Considering that average hourly earnings fell by 3% in the last year and costs of the goods and services they need have risen dramatically equates to more hardship for low and middle-class Americans. This also means that newly acquired debt (mortgages, new car loans, etc.) will not only be harder to qualify for, and they will be more expensive to service. Existing balances will also be dramatically impacted. Variable-rate credit cards will increase making existing balances more expensive to service.
How the current CPI will affect the forward guidance of the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve will hold its June FOMC meeting on Tuesday of next week and conclude on Wednesday. While a minority of economists are anticipating a rate hike of 75 basis points (3/4%) the likelihood that the Fed will get more aggressive on the size of monthly rate hikes is extremely minute. The most likely forward guidance of the Federal Reserve is to continue to raise rates by 50 basis points after the remaining FOMC meetings this year. The question becomes how many 50 basis point rate hikes will the Fed implement, and what will the Fed’s funds rate be by the end of the year?
A roller coaster ride for gold traders
Traders and investors experienced another wild trading session which can be best characterized by its extreme volatility. The chart above is a 10-minute candlestick chart of gold futures. At 8:30 AM EDT gold futures opened at $1850, and by 8:40 AM EDT traded to the low of the day at $1826.50. As of 4:40 PM, EDT gold futures are up to $22.70 or 1.23% and fixed at $1875.60.
As we have been addressing for many months now our belief is been that inflationary pressures have not peaked and in fact will continue to rise as long as the underlying cause continues to be persistent. We have been highly vocal in our opinion that the current forward guidance of the Federal Reserve will not move inflationary pressures lower. At best higher interest rates will contract the economy to such an extent that it will result in a recession. At worst that their actions will be detrimental fueling inflationary pressures higher. The current level of inflation and the current forward guidance of the Federal Reserve will be highly supportive of gold prices moving them higher over the course of the next two years.
India’s Adani firms lose $65bn in value – Al Jazeera English
Most Adani Group shares fell sharply on Monday as the Indian conglomerate’s rebuttal of a US short seller’s criticism failed to pacify investors, deepening a market rout that has now led to losses of $65bn in the group’s stock values.
Led by Asia’s richest man Gautam Adani, the Indian group has locked horns with Hindenburg Research and on Sunday hit back at the short seller’s report of last week that flagged concerns about its debt levels and the use of tax havens.
Adani said it complied with all local laws and had made the necessary regulatory disclosures.
Adani Transmission, Adani Total Gas, Adani Green Energy, Adani Power and Adani Wilmar fell between 5 percent and 20 percent on Monday.
Flagship Adani Enterprises, which is facing a crucial test this week with a follow-on share offering, swung between gains and losses before settling 4.8 percent higher. It stayed well below the offer price of the issue, which if successful will be the largest such share offering ever in India.
Adani Enterprises’ $2.5bn secondary share sale closed its second day amid weak investor sentiment. The stock closed at 2,892.85 rupees ($35.47), 7 percent below the 3,112 rupees ($38.17) lower end of the offer price band. The upper band is 3,276 rupees ($40.17).
Data from stock exchanges on Monday showed Adani has now received bids for 1.4 million shares, or just over 3 percent, of the 45.5 million shares on offer. The deal closes on Tuesday.
Foreign and domestic institutional investors, as well as mutual funds, have made no bids so far, according to the data.
“Retail participation is likely to have a shortfall with current market prices still trailing the offer price and sentiment taking a hit due to the Hindenburg controversy,” said Hemang Jani, equity strategist at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
“While there is a risk that the share sale does not go through, it will be crucial today to wait and see how institutional investors participate.”
Abu Dhabi conglomerate International Holding Company said on Monday that it would invest 1.4 billion dirhams ($381.17m) in the offering.
Share sale on schedule
The Adani Group told Reuters in a statement on Saturday that the sale remained on schedule at the planned issue price, even as sources said bankers of the country’s largest secondary share sale were considering extending the timeline beyond January 31, or tweaking the price due to the fall in its share price.
India’s rules stipulate that the share offering must receive a minimum subscription of 90 percent, and if it does not, the issuer must refund the entire amount. Maybank Securities and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority are among investors who bid for the anchor portion of the issue.
Maybank said in a statement that “there is no financial impact” on it as the subscription to Adani’s offer was fully funded by client funds.
India’s state-run insurance behemoth Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) told Reuters on Monday that it was reviewing the Adani Group’s response to Hindenburg’s report and would hold talks with the management within days.
LIC took 5 percent of the $734m anchor portion. It already holds a 4.23 percent stake in the flagship Adani firm, while its other exposures include a 9.14 percent stake in Adani Ports and 5.96 percent in Adani Total Gas.
“Since we are a large investor we have the right to ask relevant questions,” LIC Managing Director Raj Kumar said.
US dollar-denominated bonds issued by Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone continued their fall into a second week, with the bond maturing in August 2027 down 5 cents to 73.03 cents, the lowest since June 2020. Other dollar-denominated bonds of the group were also trading lower.
Index provider MSCI has said it was seeking feedback from market participants on Adani and was monitoring the factors that “may impact the eligibility of those relevant securities” in MSCI indexes.
In its response on Sunday, Adani highlighted its relationships with local and international banks and its access to diverse funding sources and structures, listing US banks Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase & Co, as well as other lenders including BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Barclays and Standard Chartered.
The stock market meltdown is a dramatic setback for 60-year-old Adani. The school dropout’s stunning rise came with over 1,500 percent gains in some of his group stocks over three years, making him the world’s third-richest man before he slipped to rank eighth on the Forbes list on Monday.
Responding to Adani’s rebuttal, Hindenburg said the company’s “response largely confirmed our findings and ignored our key questions”.
Hindenburg in its report said Adani companies had “substantial debt” and that shares in seven Adani-listed companies have an 85 percent downside due to what it called “sky-high valuations”.
Adani’s response stated that over the past decade, its group companies have “consistently de-levered”.
Ford to cut prices of Mustang Mach-E, following Tesla's lead – Reuters
Jan 30 (Reuters) – Ford Motor Co (F.N) on Monday cut prices of its electric crossover SUV Mustang Mach-E by as much as $5,900 per vehicle, weeks after rival Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) slashed prices globally on its electric vehicles by as much as 20%.
Shares of Ford closed down 2.9% in above average trading to $12.89. Tesla fell 6.3%.
The move comes as electric vehicle manufacturers are feeling pressure from Tesla’s price cut to respond.
“Ford just cut Mustang EV prices in response to Tesla’s price cut. Mini price war about to begin with EVs in the US with Tesla’s shot across the bow on price cuts,” said Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, on Twitter.
The move will make at least one additional version of the Mach-E again eligible for a $7,500 federal tax credit, which requires the Ford EV to have a suggested retail price of no more than $55,000 to be eligible.
Ford had already planned to increase Mach-E production this year at its plant in Mexico to 130,000 vehicles from 78,000 in 2022, and said in November it was accelerating Mustang Mach-E production and targeting global annual production rate of 270,000 by the end of 2023 including its China production.
Ford builds the Mach-E in Mexico and China.
“Tesla’s price cut was a major blow to the prospects of competing EV models and the Mustang Mach-E directly competes with Tesla’s Model Y,” said Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA Research.
Ford is cutting prices by up to 8% on various versions of the Mach-E, as well as cutting the price of the extended range battery by about 19%. The lowest-price models are getting smaller $600 to $900 price cuts. The Ford price cuts only impact North American prices.
Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley said on Twitter, “scaling will shorten customer wait times. And with higher production, we’re reducing costs, which allows us to share these savings with customers.”
Ford sold 39,458 Mach-Es in the United States last year, up from 27,140 in 2021.
General Motors (GM.N) said Monday it had no plans to adjust prices in response to others. The Detroit automaker in June cut prices on the Bolt by around $6,000 and by as much as 18% for the lowest-price version and earlier this month the vehicle became eligible for the $7,500 federal tax credit.
Ford said existing Mustang Mach-E customers awaiting delivery of vehicles will automatically receive the price cut.
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Nike sues Lululemon for infringement of footwear patents – CBC.ca
Nike Inc. sued Lululemon Athletica Inc. on Monday, saying that at least four of the Canadian athletic apparel company’s footwear products infringe its patents.
In a complaint filed in the U.S. federal court in Manhattan, New York, Nike said it has suffered economic harm and irreparable injury from Lululemon’s sale of its Blissfeel, Chargefeel Low, Chargefeel Mid and Strongfeel footwear.
Nike, based in Beaverton, Ore., said the three patents at issue concern textile and other elements, including one addressing how the footwear will perform when force is applied.
Nike is seeking unspecified damages.
Lululemon, based in Vancouver, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
This wasn’t the first time Nike has sued Lululemon for patent infringement — on Jan. 5, 2022, it accused the athleisure brand of making and selling the Mirror Home Gym and related mobile apps without authorization.
Nike accused its smaller rival of infringing six patents, including technology that enables users to target specific levels of exertion, compete with other users and record their own performance.
Nike has sought triple damages for Lululemon’s alleged willful infringement and a variety of other remedies regarding the Mirror Home Gym and related mobile apps.
India’s Adani firms lose $65bn in value – Al Jazeera English
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