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The outlook for Calgary’s resale real estate market is looking a little grim. Yet the grass is greener than in other major Canadian cities, a new report suggests.
In short, 2022 will be a down year for real estate compared with 2021.
Yet Calgary stands out among major cities with the largest expected increase in price year over year. The average price is expected to increase four per cent from $576,800 to $609,500.
“The interesting thing about Calgary, and Alberta in general, is while the rest of the country was seeing growing equity in their homes through the first part of the pandemic, we were still recovering from the recession in the 2010s.”
Yet the report is not entirely rosy for Calgary. It forecasts the trend of price declines that started in the spring, caused by record high prices for single-family detached homes and fast rising interest rates, will continue for the foreseeable future.
It notes, for example, that single-family home prices in Calgary are expected to drop about one per cent from October to the end of the year compared with July to September — $707,700 versus $699,100. As well, condominiums are forecast to fall by 0.9 per cent from $236,500 to $234,400.
Yet condominiums are likely to remain a market hotspot, Lyall notes.
“It’s the most interesting story right now,” she says, pointing to late-October data from the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) showing sales increasing about 23 per cent from last year.
“They’re the only segment seeing a meaningful increase in sales.”
At the same time, apartment condominium supply is falling with active listings down 27 per cent, CREB figures show.
Supply overall should remain constrained with many sellers across all segments waiting for conditions to improve, says realtor Barb Richardson with Sotheby’s International Realty Canada.
“(Many) are waiting to list in the spring market rather than fall, thinking interest rates will have stabilized and more buyers will be coming back to market,” she says.
Richardson further notes these factors should buoy pricing even if demand drops off slightly in the coming months because supply is unlikely to increase.
What’s more, Calgary could rebound quickly 2023 if its economy remains strong, bringing more interprovincial migration, Lyall notes.
“So while we have some buyers saying, ‘I am going to wait for prices to come down,’ I don’t think that is going to happen like in other large cities as long as inventory is tight in Calgary and more people are coming here.”
