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Donald Trump is at his weakest political position in years

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Former President Donald Trump is giving it another go. He announced last week that he’s trying to become only the second man (after Grover Cleveland) to be elected to non-consecutive terms as US president.

Trump’s move comes at a time when his political brand is at its weakest point since his first presidential bid in 2015-2016. He does remain a force to be reckoned with in GOP circles, and the news that the Justice Department has appointed a special counsel to oversee investigations related to the former president could elicit a rally-around-Trump effect among Republicans. Nevertheless, it’s clear his power within the party has diminished following the 2022 midterm elections.

DOJ announces special counsel for Trump-related Mar-a-Lago and January 6 criminal investigations

 

The easiest way to tell that Trump’s standing isn’t what it once was is to look at the reaction to his 2024 presidential announcement. Many Republican elected officials and conservative media personalities gave it a big yawn.

Trump’s announcement earned him the support of very few elected officials on Capitol Hill. It was much more reminiscent of his first bid in 2015-2016, when Trump initially drew little support from lawmakers in Congress. The difference this time, of course, is that Trump is the former leader of the party whom most Republican members of Congress had endorsed in 2020 instead of a political neophyte like he was seven years ago.

Instead, there seems to be about as many senators (one) already backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as there are for Trump. This is important because endorsements from party officials have historically been correlated with presidential primary success.

TAMPA, FLORIDA - JULY 22: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks during the Turning Point USA Student Action Summit held at the Tampa Convention Center on July 22, 2022 in Tampa, Florida. The event features student activism and leadership training, and a chance to participate in a series of networking events with political leaders. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
Will DeSantis run in 2024? Politico reporter goes over some factors
 

I should note that the lack of endorsements didn’t stop Trump in 2016, and it may not this time either.

Trump’s first bid may have been an aberration, though. He was facing off against more than a dozen competitors who split support among the conservative political class. This is especially a problem in Republican primaries, which tend to be winner-take-all (or most) affairs, unlike Democratic primaries, which award delegates proportionally. Trump needed well less than half of the GOP vote to accumulate a lot of delegates quickly in 2016.

He may not get the same divided opposition in the 2024 cycle. The only obvious competitor to Trump at this point is DeSantis.

The Florida governor’s rise is perhaps the most important development in the 2024 Republican field. Trump is still ahead in a number of national primary polls, but DeSantis is polling better in early national polls than any non-Trump candidate did for much of the 2016 primary cycle.

In his home state of Florida, DeSantis is outright beating Trump in almost every poll. In CNN’s exit poll of 2022 midterm voters in Florida, more Republicans wanted DeSantis to run in 2024 than they did Trump.

As Trump blusters, DeSantis builds his case but tells people to ‘chill out’ with 2024 talk

 

DeSantis’ Florida advantage is notable for a number of reasons, besides the fact that the state contains a boatload of Republican delegates, who will likely be allocated winner-take-all.

First, Florida is Trump’s home state too, and it’s the only place where the two men are on equal footing in terms of name recognition. DeSantis’ lead is a sign that as Republicans nationwide get to know him better, they could move toward him. (DeSantis tends to have a higher favorable rating than Trump nationally among Republicans who are familiar with both men.)

Second, Trump won Florida in the 2016 primaries against home-state Sen. Marco Rubio. The fact that DeSantis is now besting him there in the polls is arguably an indication that Trump is in a weaker position than he had been in 2016.

But Trump’s problems go beyond just party officials and polls. Trump was able to defy conventional wisdom in 2016 because he received an outsize amount of media attention. He basically crowded out the competition.

This time, it won’t be so easy. I’ve pointed out previously that DeSantis has shown a knack for generating a lot of media attention on Fox News. Trump’s name wasn’t mentioned until page 26 of the Rupert Murdoch-run New York Post (whose editorial page leans to the right) on the day after his 2024 announcement. Murdoch leads the company that owns Fox News as well.

And if Trump wins the primary, he’ll still have to win a general election. That won’t be easy, as the 2022 midterms showed.

How Joe Biden and the Democratic Party defied midterm history

 

I noted last week that Trump’s presence was one of the major reasons that Democrats did surprisingly well in the midterm elections. By being in the headlines so much and acting like a quasi-incumbent, Trump helped to nullify what is normally a major advantage for the opposition party in midterm elections with an unpopular incumbent in the White House.

Now, you could have envisioned a universe in which Trump’s larger-than-life personality may have been helpful if he were popular.

Instead, Trump’s favorable rating is at one of its lowest points in the last five years: 39%, according to the 2022 exit poll. That compares with a 46% favorable rating in the 2020 exit poll and a 45% job approval rating in the 2018 exit poll.

In a presidential election in which Trump’s name is actually on the ballot, you could imagine his unpopularity being even more of a factor.

We already know from history that it won’t be easy for Trump. While incumbent presidents (like Joe Biden) are at a disadvantage in midterms, they benefit from their incumbency in presidential elections. Elected incumbents win more than 60% of the time when they run for another term.

The bottom line is that Trump’s got an uphill climb ahead of him for 2024 – both in a GOP primary and in a general election. He can certainly win a second term, but the odds are currently against him.

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Harris and Lizzo praise Detroit – in contrast to Trump – ahead of an Atlanta rally with Usher

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DETROIT (AP) — Vice President Kamala Harris appeared with Lizzo on Saturday in the singer’s hometown of Detroit, marking the beginning of in-person voting and lavishing the city with praise after Republican nominee Donald Trump recently disparaged it.

“All the best things were made in Detroit. Coney Dogs, Faygo and Lizzo,” the singer joked to a rally crowd, pointing to herself after listing off the meat-on-a-stick and soda that the city is famous for.

She said it was time to “put some respect on Detroit’s name” noting that the city had revolutionized the auto and music industries and adding that she’d already cast her ballot for Harris since voting early was “a power move.”

Heaps of praise for the Motor City came after Trump, the former president, insulted it during a recent campaign stop. And Harris continued the theme, saying of her campaign, “Like the people of Detroit, we have grit, we have excellence, we have history.”

Arms wide open as she took the stage, Harris let the crowd see she was wearing under her blazer a “Detroit vs. Everybody” T-shirt that the owner of the business that produces them gave her during a previous stop in the city earlier in the week. She also moved around the stage during her speech with a hand-held mic, not using a teleprompter.

More than 1 million Michigan residents have already voted by mail in the Nov. 5 election, and Harris predicted that Detroit turnout for early voting would be strong.

“Who is the capital of producing records?” Harris asked when imploring the crowd to set new highs for early voting tallies. “We are going to break some records here in Detroit today.”

She slammed Trump as unstable: “Somebody just needs to watch his rallies, if you’re not really sure how to vote.”

“We’re not going to get these 17 days back. On Election Day, we don’t want to have any regrets,” the vice president said.

Lizzo also told the crowd, “Mrs. Commander-in-Chief has a nice ring to it.”

“This is the swing state of all swing states, so every last vote here counts,” the singer said. Then, referencing her song of the same title, Lizzo added, “If you ask me if America is ready for its first woman president, I only have one thing to say: “It’s about damn time!”

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley said in a statement that Harris needed Lizzo “to hide the fact that Michiganders were feeling good under President Trump – real wages were higher, prices were lower, and everyone was better off.”

Talona Johnson, a product manager from Rochester, Michigan, attended Harris rally and said that Harris “and her team are doing the things that are required to make sure that people are informed.”

“I believe she’s telling the truth. She’s trying to help the people,” said Johnson, who said she planned to vote for Harris and saw women’s rights as her top concern.

“I don’t necessarily agree with everything that she’s put out, but she’s better than the alternative,”

In comments to reporters prior to the rally, Harris said she was in Detroit “to thank all the folks for the work they are doing to help organize and register people to vote, and get them out to vote today. She also called Detroit “a great American city” with “a lot of hard-working folks that have grit and ambition and deserve to be respected.”

The vice president was asked about whether the Biden administration’s full-throated support for Israel in its war with Hamas in Gaza might hurt her support in Michigan. Dearborn, near Detroit, is the largest city with an Arab majority in the nation.

“It has never been easy,” Harris said of Middle East policy. “But that doesn’t mean we give up.”

She will get more star power later Saturday when she holds a rally in Atlanta featuring another wildly popular singer, Usher.

Early voting is also underway in Georgia. More than 1.2 million ballots have been cast, either in person or by mail.

Democrats hope an expansive organizing effort will boost Harris against Trump in the campaign’s final weeks.

___

Associated Press writers Matt Brown in Detroit and Will Weissert and Fatima Hussein in Washington contributed.

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Moe visiting Yorkton as Saskatchewan election campaign continues

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Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is set to be on the road today as the provincial election campaign continues.

Moe is set to speak in the city of Yorkton about affordability measures this morning before travelling to the nearby village of Theodore for an event with the local Saskatchewan Party candidate.

NDP Leader Carla Beck doesn’t have any events scheduled, though several party candidates are to hold press conferences.

On Thursday, Moe promised a directive banning “biological boys” from using school changing rooms with “biological girls” if re-elected.

The NDP said the Saskatchewan Party was punching down on vulnerable children.

Election day is Oct. 28.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan Party’s Moe pledges change room ban in schools; Beck calls it desperate

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is promising a directive banning “biological boys” from using school changing rooms with “biological girls” if re-elected, a move the NDP’s Carla Beck says weaponizes vulnerable kids.

Moe made the pledge Thursday at a campaign stop in Regina. He said it was in response to a complaint that two biological males had changed for gym class with girls at a school in southeast Saskatchewan.

He said the ban would be his first order of business if he’s voted again as premier on Oct. 28.

It was not previously included in his party’s campaign platform document.

“I’ll be very clear, there will be a directive that would come from the minister of education that would say that biological boys will not be in the change room with biological girls,” Moe said.

He added school divisions should already have change room policies, but a provincial directive would ensure all have the rule in place.

Asked about the rights of gender-diverse youth, Moe said other children also have rights.

“What about the rights of all the other girls that are changing in that very change room? They have rights as well,” he said, followed by cheers and claps.

The complaint was made at a school with the Prairie Valley School Division. The division said in a statement it doesn’t comment on specific situations that could jeopardize student privacy and safety.

“We believe all students should have the opportunity to learn and grow in a safe and welcoming learning environment,” it said.

“Our policies and procedures align with the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the Canadian Human Rights Act and the Saskatchewan Human Rights Code.”

Asked about Moe’s proposal, Beck said it would make vulnerable kids more vulnerable.

Moe is desperate to stoke fear and division after having a bad night during Wednesday’s televised leaders’ debate, she said.

“Saskatchewan people, when we’re at our best, are people that come together and deliver results, not divisive, ugly politics like we’ve seen time and again from Scott Moe and the Sask. Party,” Beck said.

“If you see leaders holding so much power choosing to punch down on vulnerable kids, that tells you everything you need to know about them.”

Beck said voters have more pressing education issues on their minds, including the need for smaller classrooms, more teaching staff and increased supports for students.

People also want better health care and to be able to afford gas and groceries, she added.

“We don’t have to agree to understand Saskatchewan people deserve better,” Beck said.

The Saskatchewan Party government passed legislation last year that requires parents consent to children under 16 using different names or pronouns at school.

The law has faced backlash from some LGBTQ+ advocates, who argue it violates Charter rights and could cause teachers to out or misgender children.

Beck has said if elected her party would repeal that legislation.

Heather Kuttai, a former commissioner with the Saskatchewan Human Rights Commission who resigned last year in protest of the law, said Moe is trying to sway right-wing voters.

She said a change room directive would put more pressure on teachers who already don’t have enough educational support.

“It sounds like desperation to me,” she said.

“It sounds like Scott Moe is nervous about the election and is turning to homophobic and transphobic rhetoric to appeal to far-right voters.

“It’s divisive politics, which is a shame.”

She said she worries about the future of gender-affirming care in a province that once led in human rights.

“We’re the kind of people who dig each other out of snowbanks and not spew hatred about each other,” she said. “At least that’s what I want to still believe.”

Also Thursday, two former Saskatchewan Party government members announced they’re endorsing Beck — Mark Docherty, who retired last year and was a Speaker, and Glen Hart, who retired in 2020.

Ian Hanna, a speech writer and senior political adviser to former Saskatchewan Party premier Brad Wall, also endorsed Beck.

Earlier in the campaign, Beck received support from former Speaker Randy Weekes, who quit the Saskatchewan Party earlier this year after accusing caucus members of bullying.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

— With files from Aaron Sousa in Edmonton

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