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Science behind the virus: Where is the epidemic going? – CGTN

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People hope the COVID-19 outbreak will come to an end as soon as possible. So what could be in store for the epidemic? We don’t have a crystal ball to show us the future, but we can get some clues from the past.

Both SARS and the virus that caused COVID-19 are known as coronaviruses, so it might be helpful to compare the 2003 SARS outbreak with the current one. This might present us with the best-case scenario, where the virus is put under control through public health intervention.

The best way to contain the virus in both outbreaks is to identify cases as soon as possible and put the infected in isolation. 

In both cases, large-scale control measures were carried out. In 2003, the SARS outbreak ended in China after about six months. And it was eradicated worldwide after infecting over 8,000 people, and killing almost 800.

In addition, some scientists argued that the warm, humid weather of early summer greatly contributed to the fight against SARS. The same argument is being made about COVID-19.

But the new coronavirus is more cunning. The latest research shows that its spike protein design allows it to hold its grip over a cell 10 to 20 times more firmly than SARS. That explains why the new coronavirus is more infectious than SARS. It also has an incubation period of potentially more than 20 days, much longer than that of SARS. All this suggests that containing it is much harder.

But this doesn’t mean it is a patient virus. It has to move fast because its single strand nucleic acid structure is so fragile that it could be easily torn apart by powerful immune systems. It, therefore, causes acute symptoms in the host in order to swiftly leave and jump to another, infecting as many people as possible in a shorter period of time. But at the same time, this strategy sounds alarm for humans to trigger more measures to fight against it.

That’s why SARS fizzled out so quickly and completely. Actually, there have been just three cases after 2004, all due to a lab leak. So, what happened to SARS? Where did it go? Scientists believe that the novel coronavirus was hidden in its natural host, the bat. In 2017, in a remote cave in Yunnan Province, virologists identified a single population of horseshoe bats. They harbor virus strains with all the genetic building blocks of the one that jumped to humans in 2003.

Furthermore, the government strictly banned the middle reservoir between bat and human, the civet, after the outbreak, preventing SARS from crossing the line. That could explain why MERS is still haunting humans in Middle East. The middle reservoir, the camel, is a major part of the local life in parts of the region. But, we still have no idea about the middle reservoir of the new coronavirus.

Another ending for an epidemic is what has been called “burn out.” That’s what happened to the Zika virus epidemic that hit South America between 2015 and 2016. Since Zika cannot infect the same person twice, thanks to the antibodies generated by the immune system, the epidemic reaches a stage where there are too few people left to infect for transmission to be sustained, just like fire flames consuming all the oxygen in a room and extinguishing itself. This is not a desirable scenario because it will cause more infections and deaths.

The last possibility paints a future in which the virus is not contained. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus could not be contained in the U.S. and therefore spread all across the world. Since then, this virus has circulated as seasonal flu. Evolution will enable the virus to find a balance between virulence and transmission. Many viruses, like HIV, will take on a milder form, trading off for wider spread. If that is the case, the new coronavirus may return seasonally and join the milder coronavirus strains that infect people as a common cold or pneumonia.

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Canada to donate up to 200,000 vaccine doses to combat mpox outbreaks in Africa

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The Canadian government says it will donate up to 200,000 vaccine doses to fight the mpox outbreak in Congo and other African countries.

It says the donated doses of Imvamune will come from Canada’s existing supply and will not affect the country’s preparedness for mpox cases in this country.

Minister of Health Mark Holland says the donation “will help to protect those in the most affected regions of Africa and will help prevent further spread of the virus.”

Dr. Madhukar Pai, Canada research chair in epidemiology and global health, says although the donation is welcome, it is a very small portion of the estimated 10 million vaccine doses needed to control the outbreak.

Vaccine donations from wealthier countries have only recently started arriving in Africa, almost a month after the World Health Organization declared the mpox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.

A few days after the declaration in August, Global Affairs Canada announced a contribution of $1 million for mpox surveillance, diagnostic tools, research and community awareness in Africa.

On Thursday, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said mpox is still on the rise and that testing rates are “insufficient” across the continent.

Jason Kindrachuk, Canada research chair in emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba, said donating vaccines, in addition to supporting surveillance and diagnostic tests, is “massively important.”

But Kindrachuk, who has worked on the ground in Congo during the epidemic, also said that the international response to the mpox outbreak is “better late than never (but) better never late.”

“It would have been fantastic for us globally to not be in this position by having provided doses a much, much longer time prior than when we are,” he said, noting that the outbreak of clade I mpox in Congo started in early 2023.

Clade II mpox, endemic in regions of West Africa, came to the world’s attention even earlier — in 2022 — as that strain of virus spread to other countries, including Canada.

Two doses are recommended for mpox vaccination, so the donation may only benefit 100,000 people, Pai said.

Pai questioned whether Canada is contributing enough, as the federal government hasn’t said what percentage of its mpox vaccine stockpile it is donating.

“Small donations are simply not going to help end this crisis. We need to show greater solidarity and support,” he said in an email.

“That is the biggest lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic — our collective safety is tied with that of other nations.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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How many Nova Scotians are on the doctor wait-list? Number hit 160,000 in June

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government says it could be months before it reveals how many people are on the wait-list for a family doctor.

The head of the province’s health authority told reporters Wednesday that the government won’t release updated data until the 160,000 people who were on the wait-list in June are contacted to verify whether they still need primary care.

Karen Oldfield said Nova Scotia Health is working on validating the primary care wait-list data before posting new numbers, and that work may take a matter of months. The most recent public wait-list figures are from June 1, when 160,234 people, or about 16 per cent of the population, were on it.

“It’s going to take time to make 160,000 calls,” Oldfield said. “We are not talking weeks, we are talking months.”

The interim CEO and president of Nova Scotia Health said people on the list are being asked where they live, whether they still need a family doctor, and to give an update on their health.

A spokesperson with the province’s Health Department says the government and its health authority are “working hard” to turn the wait-list registry into a useful tool, adding that the data will be shared once it is validated.

Nova Scotia’s NDP are calling on Premier Tim Houston to immediately release statistics on how many people are looking for a family doctor. On Tuesday, the NDP introduced a bill that would require the health minister to make the number public every month.

“It is unacceptable for the list to be more than three months out of date,” NDP Leader Claudia Chender said Tuesday.

Chender said releasing this data regularly is vital so Nova Scotians can track the government’s progress on its main 2021 campaign promise: fixing health care.

The number of people in need of a family doctor has more than doubled between the 2021 summer election campaign and June 2024. Since September 2021 about 300 doctors have been added to the provincial health system, the Health Department said.

“We’ll know if Tim Houston is keeping his 2021 election promise to fix health care when Nova Scotians are attached to primary care,” Chender said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

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Newfoundland and Labrador monitoring rise in whooping cough cases: medical officer

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Newfoundland and Labrador‘s chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.

Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says that so far this year, the province has recorded 230 confirmed cases of the vaccine-preventable respiratory tract infection, also known as pertussis.

Late last month, Quebec reported more than 11,000 cases during the same time period, while Ontario counted 470 cases, well above the five-year average of 98. In Quebec, the majority of patients are between the ages of 10 and 14.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick has declared a whooping cough outbreak across the province. A total of 141 cases were reported by last month, exceeding the five-year average of 34.

The disease can lead to severe complications among vulnerable populations including infants, who are at the highest risk of suffering from complications like pneumonia and seizures. Symptoms may start with a runny nose, mild fever and cough, then progress to severe coughing accompanied by a distinctive “whooping” sound during inhalation.

“The public, especially pregnant people and those in close contact with infants, are encouraged to be aware of symptoms related to pertussis and to ensure vaccinations are up to date,” Newfoundland and Labrador’s Health Department said in a statement.

Whooping cough can be treated with antibiotics, but vaccination is the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. As a result, the province has expanded immunization efforts this school year. While booster doses are already offered in Grade 9, the vaccine is now being offered to Grade 8 students as well.

Public health officials say whooping cough is a cyclical disease that increases every two to five or six years.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s acting chief medical officer of health expects the current case count to get worse before tapering off.

A rise in whooping cough cases has also been reported in the United States and elsewhere. The Pan American Health Organization issued an alert in July encouraging countries to ramp up their surveillance and vaccination coverage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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