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Choose Your Investment Guru Wisely

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If you want to learn how to play tennis, it makes more sense to take the Masterclass from Serena Williams than to watch a random infomercial or a video from your high school coach. If you want to learn about investing you should also seek out the best.

Warren Buffett is verifiably the best investor of all time, with an audited track record going back several decades. Why, then, do so many would-be investors choose other role models, who all too often turn out to be hucksters and hacks—or just plain misguided?

I’ve asked the question many times. I’ve posed it to my NYU finance students each semester for over 20 years. Still, there’s no satisfying answer. I could hardly believe it when Bloomberg reported that Caroline Ellison of Alameda, FTX, and crypto infamy (and the former girlfriend of Sam Bankman-Fried) had supposedly learned investment strategies from Edwin Lefèvre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, a roman à clef based on the life of Jesse Livermore, the stock trader who made a fortune shorting stocks before the 1906 San Francisco earthquake.

I’ve heard other young stock enthusiasts cite the book before. In 2021, Business Insider published a profile of 20 ambitious teen traders. One even mentioned Reminiscences as a favorite book. It’s one thing to read this book as entertainment. It’s another thing entirely to read it as an instruction manual. That’s because the book was published in 1923—long before Jesse Livermore’s last act.

At the age of 14, young Livermore had his first job posting stock quotes at the Boston branch of Paine Webber. His colorful life makes for great artistic inspiration and Lefèvre was probably unable to resist the allure. Livermore made and lost his fortune many times, not a sign of a good investor but rather the clear profile of a gambler and speculator. Livermore was a flamboyant character. He had a railcar, yacht and an extravagant apartment on the Upper West Side. He belonged to exclusive clubs and kept many mistresses. In the panic of 1907, Livermore made a million dollars in a single day. This was real money back then. But by 1915 he had filed for bankruptcy—and not for the first time. In the end, he lost his entire fortune and filed for bankruptcy a third time. This was in 1934, when his assets were listed at $84,000 and his debts at $2.5 million. That was his final business act. His final personal act was to shoot himself to death in the cloakroom of the Sherry-Netherland hotel in Manhattan on Thanksgiving Day, 1940.

In an era where people get their news from TikTok and Instagram, it’s not surprising that they would take the same dumb approach to learning about investing. But if you ever base your investment technique on a novel, be sure you know the ending of the real story first.

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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