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Coronavirus roils global markets, putting rate cuts back on the radar

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Mounting concerns over the spread of coronavirus outside China sent global markets into a panic Monday and some economists are warning the prospect of a pandemic could push the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates sooner rather than later.

“It is reasonable to assume that coronavirus is going to last longer given the infection rate is higher than SARS and is still climbing. That itself, might convince the Bank of Canada and even the U.S. Fed to cut interest rates. I wouldn’t be surprised,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets. “This is just the beginning of coronavirus, and there is a consensus starting to be generated that maybe, it will last longer than expected.”

Stock markets began the week in turmoil as a surge in the number of coronavirus cases was reported outside China — specifically in South Korea, Iran and Italy — just days after G20 officials warned that the ongoing outbreak would have a detrimental effect on global growth if not contained soon.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1,031 points, or 3.56 per cent on Monday, while the S&P 500 fell by 3.3 per cent, the steepest drop since August. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was hit even harder, losing 3.71 per cent to close Monday at just over 9,200 points.

Canadian markets felt the pinch too, with the TSX dropping by 1.5 per cent or approximately 280 points, ending the trading day at 17,562 points. The VIX, a measure of stock market volatility surged by 35 per cent.

The price of gold, meanwhile, soared by 2.6 per cent, reaching a seven-year high while the 10-year Treasury yield plunged to its lowest level in almost four years as investors sought out traditional safe havens to weather the uncertainty.

Oil prices tumbled by as much as four per cent on concerns over stalling global demand, as energy traders began to price in the notion that the virus could last longer than previously thought.

“The virus spread comes at a time when companies are already facing significant inventory restocking and a stalling in global manufacturing following the application of tariffs and overall trade tension,” said Frances Donald, chief economist at Manulife Investment Management. “Coronavirus is adding salt to the wound.”

Like Tal, Donald believes that the Bank of Canada will seriously contemplate a rate cut.

“I have a lot of trouble believing that the central bank is not very concerned at this point about what the first half of 2020’s economy looks like for Canada,” she said.

Worries over coronavirus morphing into a global pandemic began to flare up late last week, as the number of infections in South Korea surged fivefold to over 800 while authorities in both Italy and Iran reported tens of new cases and almost 20 deaths. Italy is now the epicenter of the biggest coronavirus outbreak outside Asia, as officials still struggle to track down how the virus first entered the country.

The number of cases in North America, however, remains much lower, with just nine in Canada and 53 in the U.S. — 18 of which were discovered on Monday.

Markets reacted negatively to the virus when it first came to light almost a month ago, but then recovered, signalling a dismissal of the potential for a wider economic impact.

“What I find fascinating is that up until last week, the U.S. consensus had not changed one iota on coronavirus concerns,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Financial Group. “I wonder if that might start to shift a little bit in the next few weeks,” he added.

Porter remained cautious on the idea that the U.S. Fed would ease rates, saying that it would take a “major shock like a massive, wide outbreak of the virus” to get them to shift gears.

“I can see a scenario where the Bank of Canada cuts rates, and the Fed doesn’t because the Bank has basically told us they are biased to ease, if need be, but the Fed hasn’t indicated that,” he said.

Because of how large the Chinese economy is, the impact of a coronavirus-related slowdown on Canada would come from both the supply side (Canadian companies depending on Chinese goods) and the demand side (exports of our commodities to the Chinese market), says Donald.

“But the supply side component of this is so much worse than in 2003, with SARS, because global supply chains are significantly more complex. In today’s environment, we are relying on China for intermediary goods — for example automakers rely on parts made in China,” she said.

“So the biggest challenge from a policymaker’s point of view is how much of the loss we might experience over the next few months is going to be recouped over the next year,” Donald added.

On Sunday, China confirmed 150 new deaths, pushing its national death toll to almost 2,600.

The outbreak has also caused widespread travel chaos, with Turkey, Pakistan, Armenia and Oman closing their borders with Iran on Monday, citing the surge in the number of cases there. Hong Kong too, closed its doors to all arrivals from South Korea over the weekend.

Airline stocks in particular took a hit on Monday, with American Airlines dropping just over eight per cent and Air Canada’s stock declining five per cent, as the company continued to restrict the number of flights between Canada and China.

“The direct damage to global economies is still limited, but there’s potential for much more which is basically what the market is reacting to,” said Porter.

”But frankly, no one can really know at this point, because if you think about it, it has really only been a month (since) this first emerged as an issue.”

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The #1 Skill I Look For When Hiring

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File this column under “for what it’s worth.”

“Communication is one of the most important skills you require for a successful life.” — Catherine Pulsifer, author.

I’m one hundred percent in agreement with Pulsifer, which is why my evaluation of candidates begins with their writing skills. If a candidate’s writing skills and verbal communication skills, which I’ll assess when interviewing, aren’t well above average, I’ll pass on them regardless of their skills and experience.

 

Why?

 

Because business is fundamentally about getting other people to do things—getting employees to be productive, getting customers to buy your products or services, and getting vendors to agree to a counteroffer price. In business, as in life in general, you can’t make anything happen without effective communication; this is especially true when job searching when your writing is often an employer’s first impression of you.

 

Think of all the writing you engage in during a job search (resumes, cover letters, emails, texts) and all your other writing (LinkedIn profile, as well as posts and comments, blogs, articles, tweets, etc.) employers will read when they Google you to determine if you’re interview-worthy.

 

With so much of our communication today taking place via writing (email, text, collaboration platforms such as Microsoft Teams, Slack, ClickUp, WhatsApp and Rocket.Chat), the importance of proficient writing skills can’t be overstated.

 

When assessing a candidate’s writing skills, you probably think I’m looking for grammar and spelling errors. Although error-free writing is important—it shows professionalism and attention to detail—it’s not the primary reason I look at a candidate’s writing skills.

 

The way someone writes reveals how they think.

 

  • Clear writing = Clear thinking
  • Structured paragraphs = Structured mind
  • Impactful sentences = Impactful ideas

 

Effective writing isn’t about using sophisticated vocabulary. Hemingway demonstrated that deceptively simple, stripped-down prose can captivate readers. Effective writing takes intricate thoughts and presents them in a way that makes the reader think, “Damn! Why didn’t I see it that way?” A good writer is a dead giveaway for a good thinker. More than ever, the business world needs “good thinkers.”

 

Therefore, when I come across a candidate who’s a good writer, hence a good thinker, I know they’re likely to be able to write:

 

  • Emails that don’t get deleted immediately and are responded to
  • Simple, concise, and unambiguous instructions
  • Pitches that are likely to get read
  • Social media content that stops thumbs
  • Human-sounding website copy
  • Persuasively, while attuned to the reader’s possible sensitivities

 

Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: AI, which job seekers are using en masse. Earlier this year, I wrote that AI’s ability to hyper-increase an employee’s productivity—AI is still in its infancy; we’ve seen nothing yet—in certain professions, such as writing, sales and marketing, computer programming, office and admin, and customer service, makes it a “fewer employees needed” tool, which understandably greatly appeals to employers. In my opinion, the recent layoffs aren’t related to the economy; they’re due to employers adopting AI. Additionally, companies are trying to balance investing in AI with cost-cutting measures. CEOs who’ve previously said, “Our people are everything,” have arguably created today’s job market by obsessively focusing on AI to gain competitive advantages and reduce their largest expense, their payroll.

 

It wouldn’t be a stretch to assume that most AI usage involves generating written content, content that’s obvious to me, and likely to you as well, to have been written by AI. However, here’s the twist: I don’t particularly care.

 

Why?

 

Because the fundamental skill I’m looking for is the ability to organize thoughts and communicate effectively. What I care about is whether the candidate can take AI-generated content and transform it into something uniquely valuable. If they can, they’re demonstrating the skills of being a good thinker and communicator. It’s like being a great DJ; anyone can push play, but it takes skill to read a room and mix music that gets people pumped.

 

Using AI requires prompting effectively, which requires good writing skills to write clear and precise instructions that guide the AI to produce desired outcomes. Prompting AI effectively requires understanding structure, flow and impact. You need to know how to shape raw information, such as milestones throughout your career when you achieved quantitative results, into a compelling narrative.

So, what’s the best way to gain and enhance your writing skills? As with any skill, you’ve got to work at it.

Two rules guide my writing:

 

  • Use strong verbs and nouns instead of relying on adverbs, such as “She dashed to the store.” instead of “She ran quickly to the store.” or “He whispered to the child.” instead of “He spoke softly to the child.”
  • Avoid using long words when a shorter one will do, such as “use” instead of “utilize” or “ask” instead of “inquire.” As attention spans get shorter, I aim for clarity, simplicity and, most importantly, brevity in my writing.

 

Don’t just string words together; learn to organize your thoughts, think critically, and communicate clearly. Solid writing skills will significantly set you apart from your competition, giving you an advantage in your job search and career.

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.

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Politics likely pushed Air Canada toward deal with ‘unheard of’ gains for pilots

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MONTREAL – Politics, public opinion and salary hikes south of the border helped push Air Canada toward a deal that secures major pay gains for pilots, experts say.

Hammered out over the weekend, the would-be agreement includes a cumulative wage hike of nearly 42 per cent over four years — an enormous bump by historical standards — according to one source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The previous 10-year contract granted increases of just two per cent annually.

The federal government’s stated unwillingness to step in paved the way for a deal, noted John Gradek, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it plain the two sides should hash one out themselves.

“Public opinion basically pressed the federal cabinet, including the prime minister, to keep their hands clear of negotiations and looking at imposing a settlement,” said Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

After late-night talks at a hotel near Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s biggest airline and the union representing 5,200-plus aviators announced early Sunday morning they had reached a tentative agreement, averting a strike that would have grounded flights and affected some 110,000 passengers daily.

The relative precariousness of the Liberal minority government as well as a push to appear more pro-labour underlay the prime minister’s hands-off approach to the negotiations.

Trudeau said Friday the government would not step in to fix the impasse — unlike during a massive railway work stoppage last month and a strike by WestJet mechanics over the Canada Day long weekend that workers claimed road roughshod over their constitutional right to collective bargaining. Trudeau said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became apparent no negotiated deal was possible.

“They felt that they really didn’t want to try for a third attempt at intervention and basically said, ‘Let’s let the airline decide how they want to deal with this one,'” said Gradek.

“Air Canada ran out of support as the week wore on, and by the time they got to Friday night, Saturday morning, there was nothing left for them to do but to basically try to get a deal set up and accepted by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association).”

Trudeau’s government was also unlikely to consider back-to-work legislation after the NDP tore up its agreement to support the Liberal minority in Parliament, Gradek said. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has traditionally toed a more pro-business line, also said last week that Tories “stand with the pilots” and swore off “pre-empting” the negotiations.

Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau had asked Ottawa on Thursday to impose binding arbitration pre-emptively — “before any travel disruption starts” — if talks failed. Backed by business leaders, he’d hoped for an effective repeat of the Conservatives’ move to head off a strike in 2012 by legislating Air Canada pilots and ground crew to stick to their posts before any work stoppage could start.

The request may have fallen flat, however. Gradek said he believes there was less anxiety over the fallout from an airline strike than from the countrywide railway shutdown.

He also speculated that public frustration over thousands of cancelled flights would have flowed toward Air Canada rather than Ottawa, prompting the carrier to concede to a deal yielding “unheard of” gains for employees.

“It really was a total collapse of the Air Canada bargaining position,” he said.

Pilots are slated to vote in the coming weeks on the four-year contract.

Last year, pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines secured agreements that included four-year pay boosts ranging from 34 per cent to 40 per cent, ramping up pressure on other carriers to raise wages.

After more than a year of bargaining, Air Canada put forward an offer in August centred around a 30 per cent wage hike over four years.

But the final deal, should union members approve it, grants a 26 per cent increase in the first year alone, retroactive to September 2023, according to the source. Three wage bumps of four per cent would follow in 2024 through 2026.

Passengers may wind up shouldering some of that financial load, one expert noted.

“At the end of the day, it’s all us consumers who are paying,” said Barry Prentice, who heads the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

Higher fares may be mitigated by the persistence of budget carrier Flair Airlines and the rapid expansion of Porter Airlines — a growing Air Canada rival — as well as waning demand for leisure trips. Corporate travel also remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Air Canada said Sunday the tentative contract “recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline.”

The union issued a statement saying that, if ratified, the agreement will generate about $1.9 billion of additional value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the deal.

Meanwhile, labour tension with cabin crew looms on the horizon. Air Canada is poised to kick off negotiations with the union representing more than 10,000 flight attendants this year before the contract expires on March 31.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:AC)

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Federal $500M bailout for Muskrat Falls power delays to keep N.S. rate hikes in check

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HALIFAX – Ottawa is negotiating a $500-million bailout for Nova Scotia’s privately owned electric utility, saying the money will be used to prevent a big spike in electricity rates.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson made the announcement today in Halifax, saying Nova Scotia Power Inc. needs the money to cover higher costs resulting from the delayed delivery of electricity from the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric plant in Labrador.

Wilkinson says that without the money, the subsidiary of Emera Inc. would have had to increase rates by 19 per cent over “the short term.”

Nova Scotia Power CEO Peter Gregg says the deal, once approved by the province’s energy regulator, will keep rate increases limited “to be around the rate of inflation,” as costs are spread over a number of years.

The utility helped pay for construction of an underwater transmission link between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, but the Muskrat Falls project has not been consistent in delivering electricity over the past five years.

Those delays forced Nova Scotia Power to spend more on generating its own electricity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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