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Why those waiting for a return to normal in commercial real estate will get left behind

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Demand for offices and shopping centres have been slower to recover from the effects of the pandemic.

Nathalie Palladitcheff gets asked all the time when things will get “back to normal” in the commercial real estate world, but the chief executive of Ivanhoé Cambridge thinks the premise of the question is flawed.

“I would not expect that being back to normal would be really good news,” Palladitcheff said in a December interview. “I really think that we will have to adapt ourselves and adjust ourselves and find new solutions in this environment.”

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the shift to hybrid work are still rippling through the real estate markets. Demand for residential and industrial space has shot up while offices and shopping centres have been slower to recover.

Palladitcheff, who was recently appointed as chair of the Real Property Association of Canada (REALPAC), the main industry group representing the country’s commercial real estate giants, said she tells her team that waiting for that recovery is not an option.

“We have to innovate and we’re going to have to … just be a little bit smarter than we used to be,” she said.The good news for Canadian landlords is that office real estate markets here have weathered the storm better than some. Canada still boasts three of the five lowest office vacancy rates in North America and a stable national retail vacancy rate of 8.5 per cent, according to Colliers International.

Ivanhoe Cambridge chief executive Nathalie Palladitcheff in 2021.
Ivanhoe Cambridge chief executive Nathalie Palladitcheff in 2021. Photo by Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press

A Commercial Real Estate Services (CBRE) report that examined the Canadian office market in the third quarter of this year put Vancouver’s vacancy rate at 7.1 per cent, Ottawa’s at 11.5 per cent and Toronto’s at 11.8 per cent. Those figures compare favourably to major U.S. centres such as Dallas at 32.2 per cent, San Francisco at 24.2 per cent and Manhattan at 15.2 per cent.

Palladitcheff acknowledges, however, that a recession could still “change the game dramatically.”She predicts those holding office space will face competing demands that make the outcome from a downturn hard to predict. On the one hand, a recession would lead to a rush to cut costs, including rent. On the other, companies are struggling for talent, and there is a sense that a physical office is still an important tool for establishing “the right culture.”

We have to innovate and we’re going to have to … just be a little bit smarter than we used to be

Nathalie Palladitcheff

She said that the landlords who are able to hang on in 2023 are going to be the owners of sustainable A-class commercial spaces.

Montreal-based Ivanhoé Cambridge is the real estate arm of the deep-pocketed Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, which manages that province’s major public pension plans.

With strategic partners and major real estate funds, Ivanhoé Cambridge holds interests in more than 1,200 high-quality buildings, primarily in the industrial and logistics, office, residential and retail sectors and had $69 billion in real estate assets as of Dec. 31, 2021.Palladitcheff got the top job there, becoming the company’s first female chief executive, in 2019 after 20 plus years in international commercial real estate.

Her focus has been on innovation and diversification and she counts the development of a corporate social responsibility strategy that ensures the international portfolio reaches carbon neutrality by 2040 among her key accomplishments.“My job is really to be prepared for the worst scenario and to be ready for whatever happens, Palladitcheff said.

The French-born executive kicks off her two-year term as chair of REALPAC in January, after being named to the position in November. She had previously served as vice chair.

Palladitcheff said encouraging her team to be smarter means looking at real estate as a solution rather than a problem.

She said her experience in European commercial real estate — she worked at a company there 15 years ago that already had a head of environmental, social and governance (ESG), a post that is only now becoming common in Canada — has given her an advantage when it comes to addressing sustainability.

“Real estate professionals who are going to provide the world with solutions … not more problems are going to win this race,” she said.

 

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Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

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MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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