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Where Ontario’s housing market is headed in 2023

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The price of buying a home in Ontario dropped from its lofty heights during the past year, and the question for 2023 is whether the downward trend will continue.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) benchmark price of a home in Ontario — a measure that combines sale prices of condominiums, attached and detached houses across all markets in the province — peaked at $1.08 million in March of 2022.

That was a staggering 64 per cent leap in just two years, from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

CREA’s benchmark figure for Ontario has since fallen by nearly 20 per cent, but even that sharp decline only takes prices back to the level they were at in September of 2021.

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How much lower will home prices in this province go? With the number of homes bought and sold monthly now lower than it’s been per capita since the mid-1990s, when will the real estate market start to pick up again?

CBC News surveyed real estate experts and analyzed published forecasts to give you this preview of the Ontario housing market for 2023.

 

This home in Toronto’s east end was first listed for $1.849 million, relisted for $100,000 less and ultimately sold in October 2022 for $1.65 million, according to data from the real estate firm Realosophy. (Showwei Chu/CBC)

 

Overall, real estate analysts generally expect home prices to continue to fall, but not a lot further than they already have.

Rishi Sondhi, of TD Economics, forecasts prices in Ontario will decline through early 2023 but bottom out in the second half of the year.

“We are expecting further downside [to prices] but less relative to what we’ve seen so far,” said Sondhi in an interview.

“We think that the bulk of the correction … is behind us.”

That’s partly because there are some signals that the bulk of the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hikes are behind it. The central bank raised its standard-setting benchmark rate seven times in 2022 in an attempt to tackle inflation

Condo projects could be cancelled

Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian economics with Desjardins, says it’s an open question when Ontario home prices will stop dropping because various factors on the supply and demand side are pulling in opposite directions.

Those higher interest rates have been the biggest factor dampening demand. However, Bartlett points out employment levels remain strong and immigration numbers are expected to rise, fuelling demand for housing.

 Ontario's housing market
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is predicting headwinds for new condo construction in the Greater Toronto Area. ‘Higher construction costs and interest rates could lead to project cancellations or delays in project launches and dampen homebuying activity,” said the CMHC in a recent housing supply report. (Patrick Morrell/CBC)

On the supply side, many property owners are reluctant to list their properties given how the prices dropped, yet many investors could be forced to sell due to the higher carrying costs of those high interest rates.

There are also signs that the recently rapid pace of new home construction is slowing. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) recently warned that in the Greater Toronto Area, the combination of a sharp drop in condo pre-construction sales, higher building costs and higher interest rates “could lead to project cancellations or delays in project launches.”

“We’re in a very different environment,” said Bartlett. “Demand has cooled off, prices have come down, interest rates are higher.”

He says this could have an impact on the supply of new housing coming on the market in the latter half of 2023.

Mark Ostland, a real estate expert with Meridian, Ontario’s largest credit union, says if the Bank of Canada is done raising rates, that will give more confidence to potential buyers.

Volume of listings expected to remain low

“We are in what I call ‘even-steven times’ at the moment,” said Ostland in an interview.

“On the one hand, we’ve got more affordable home prices than we’ve seen in the last couple of years. But on the other hand, we have the continued rising interest rates that are affecting buyers’ ability to qualify for the mortgage amount they need.”

Real estate analysts generally believe the volume of listings and sales in Ontario will remain low for some time to come.

 Ontario's housing market
This graph from the Canadian Real Estate Association shows how its benchmark home price in Ontario has changed over the years, with a steep drop since peaking in March 2022. The benchmark price is calculated from the composite value of sales through the MLS real estate system. (CREA)

“People really don’t want to list their homes when sales and prices are falling, for obvious reasons, and so far, that factor is sort of winning out and keeping supply relatively subdued,” said Sondhi.

Every month since June, home sales numbers in the Greater Toronto Area have been at their absolute lowest in more than a decade — with the exception of the lockdown-affected period in the spring of 2020.

“Sharply higher interest rates and the considerable loss of affordability continue to challenge buyers. And we think they will keep the market quiet for some time to come,” said RBC economist Robert Hogue in his housing market report in December.

On the price side, Hogue noted that Toronto-area prices have fallen 18 per cent from their peak and said “any further depreciation is likely to be more incremental.”

GTA vs. rest of Ontario

ReMax, one of Canada’s largest real estate firms, forecasts prices in the Greater Toronto Area will decline to their 2021 levels, a roughly 11 per cent drop from the average this year.

There’s debate about what will happen to housing markets elsewhere in Ontario that saw astonishingly high run-ups in prices over the past two years.

 Ontario's housing market
In the fall of 2021, this house in Toronto sold for $1.9 million, more than $500,000 over the asking price. (CBC)

“Our view is that markets outside of the GTA actually have further to fall than the GTA has,” said Bartlett.

Ontario’s smaller cities have a greater proportion of houses to condos than in the Toronto area and that’s one reason why they remain more vulnerable to further drops in 2023: Prices for condos have been somewhat less volatile than for houses.

ReMax’s 2023 real estate outlook predicts average price declines of up to 15 per cent in London, Kitchener-Waterloo, Barrie, and the Georgian Bay area, while forecasting modest price increases of two to eight per cent in the rest of the province, including Ottawa, Hamilton, Windsor and Sudbury.

Nationally, the CMHC is forecasting the average sale price across Canada to continue to decline until the second quarter of 2023.

The coming year will provide an early test of Premier Doug Ford’s promise to pave the way for 1.5 million new homes to be built in Ontario in a decade.

The Ford government has used the housing supply crunch as its justification for recent moves to limit what municipalities can charge for development fees, weaken the powers of conservation authorities and open up pockets of the Greenbelt to housing.

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Developer Sam Mizrahi files lawsuit against Edward Rogers and his real estate fund, alleges $30-million loss – The Globe and Mail

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A condominium at 128 HazeltonAve. in Toronto’s Yorkville neighbourhood. The property was developed by Sam Mizrahi.Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail

Real estate developer Sam Mizrahi has filed a lawsuit against Edward Rogers and Constantine Enterprises Inc., the real estate fund Mr. Rogers owns, escalating a battle between the businessmen amid an alleged $30-million loss on their flagship condo project.

In a lawsuit filed this month in Ontario Superior Court, Mr. Mizrahi alleges Mr. Rogers and his business partner Robert Hiscox, who co-own Constantine, blocked multiple attempts made by Mr. Mizrahi to salvage more value from the two real estate ventures they were jointly developing. After Mr. Mizrahi’s efforts were denied, Constantine requested court-appointed receivers for both projects.

Mr. Mizrahi is suing Mr. Rogers, Mr. Hiscox and Constantine for breach of contract, negligence, and breach of fiduciary duty, among other allegations, and is seeking $100-million in damages.

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Mr. Mizrahi alleges his 20-unit luxury condo project developed with Constantine, known as 128 Hazelton in Toronto’s Yorkville neighbourhood, has incurred losses totalling more than $30-million, and that Constantine wants him to share 50 per cent of this loss. Because Mr. Mizrahi has refused, he alleges Constantine blocked his attempts to sell undeveloped land at their other project, known as 180 Steeles or 180 SAW, and also blocked other financing initiatives he put together.

“The defendants refused to realize the profit to be garnered on the 180 SAW project based upon offers Sam solicited, because Sam asserted his legal rights and could not be coerced to agree to indemnify Constantine 50 per cent of its losses on the 128 Hazelton project as a condition of accepting the offers on the 180 SAW project,” the lawsuit alleges.

In an e-mail to The Globe and Mail, Constantine’s Mr. Hiscox disputed Mr. Mizrahi’s narrative, claiming that “in December 2021, Sam, through one of his entities, had agreed, as a 50-per-cent partner in Hazelton, to share equally in the losses of that project. This was documented in the ‘contribution agreement.’”

Mr. Hiscox also wrote: “We are about to enter the 10th year of what Mizrahi represented would be a three-year project,” adding that the project has exceeded Mr. Mizrahi’s original budget by more than $50-million, or almost double the original estimate.

Mr. Mizrahi filed his lawsuit after two major developments. In January, the senior lender to 128 Hazelton, Duca Financial Services Credit Union Ltd., alleged default and requested a receiver for the project.

A month later, Constantine bought out Duca’s debt, then filed its own request for court-appointed receivers for both 128 Hazelton and 180 Steeles, with the hope that a third party would complete sales for each. In an interview with The Globe at the time, Mr. Mizrahi referred to the action as “predatorial” behaviour.

As of January, Constantine and Mr. Mizrahi owned eight units in 128 Hazelton, and in its receivership application Constantine alleged Mr. Mizrahi’s company “failed or neglected to provide its share of the required additional funds necessary to complete and sell the remaining Hazelton project units.”

As for the 180 Steeles project, Constantine alleged it was owed $29-million by Mr. Mizrahi, but had lost confidence in his ability to repay the debt. Constantine was also concerned that Mr. Mizrahi’s company “will continue to fail or neglect to make its required capital contributions to the partnership.” 180 Steeles is located on Toronto’s northern border but is in the preconstruction phase and was put up for sale a year ago.

As the legal battle escalates, both sides have alleged the other has acted in bad faith. In February, for instance, Mr. Mizrahi told The Globe he tried to arrange financing from Third Eye Capital, or TEC, a private lender, to buy out Duca’s loan and sought Constantine’s approval, but later learned Constantine had struck a private deal to do the same itself. “They didn’t tell me, they weren’t transparent,” he said.

In his e-mail Wednesday, Mr. Hiscox wrote, “There were a number of issues with that financing proposal, not the least of which was the cost of the TEC debt being much higher than the existing Duca debt.”

Mr. Mizrahi also brought in Hyundai Asset Management, a South Korean entity, as a potential buyer for the 180 Steeles project, but Constantine would not agree to the transaction, he alleged in his lawsuit.

Mr. Hiscox wrote in his e-mail that the potential buyer “walked from the deal because of the current status of the zoning approval.”

While Mr. Mizrahi battles Constantine in court, another of his Yorkville condo projects, known as The One, is operating under a receiver. The 85-storey project was put into receivership last fall because it owed $1.6-billion to its lenders, is years behind schedule and faces multiple lawsuits. Mr. Mizrahi was recently replaced by Skygrid Construction Inc. as the project manager.

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Final Offer Launches in Canada Bringing Transparency to the Canadian Real Estate Market – Canada NewsWire

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TORONTO, April 25, 2024 /CNW/ – Final Offer, a new online platform for real estate brokerages, agents, home sellers and buyers to leverage the negotiation and offer process, has officially launched in Canada. In partnership with Royal LePage Signature Realty, Royal LePage Your Community Realty and Royal LePage Connect Realty, Final Offer empowers licensed real estate agents to provide a more transparent offer and negotiation experience for the consumer.

For decades, Canadians looking to buy or sell a home have looked for greater transparency during the process.  With the implementation of the Trust in Real Estate Services Act, 2002 (TRESA), Final Offer aligns itself well to disclose to the public exactly what sellers want for their home, including the price and terms. Potential buyers and their real estate agents receive real-time notifications of any action on the property, including when offers are made. Every buyer gets a fair shot at purchasing the property for its true market valueSellers are confident they got the best outcome and achieved their goal.

“The way homes have been bought and sold hasn’t evolved in 100 years, until now,” says Nathan Dart, Senior Vice President of Final Offer. “We set out to enhance the way agents, sellers and buyers collaborate in the offer process by ensuring transparency and visibility. This is particularly important during a time of high housing costs in Canada. We’re thrilled to partner with such well respected market leaders in the GTA that are elevating the home buying and selling experience for all parties.”

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Final Offer has attracted the attention of top real estate leaders in Canada looking to maximize the value of their sellers’ homes, while also giving their buyers transparency into what it will take to make an offer that will be accepted. Agents submit offers for their buyers on finaloffer.com and an interested buyer can have their real estate agent submit their “final offer” at any time and immediately put the home under contract.

“As an owner and operator of a real estate brokerage, I’ve seen the disappointment of our agents’ clients who lost out on their dream home for only a few thousand dollars or sellers who question if they got as much for their home as they possibly could,” says Chris Slightham, Owner and President of Royal LePage Signature Realty. “The ability to see offers in real time and to set and make a ‘final offer’ creates greater transparency and puts all parties in control. After introducing this platform to our realtors, they are seeing the confidence it gives their clients when making purchasing decisions. I believe Final Offer is going to change how real estate is transacted in Canada and beyond.”

Licensed real estate agents, sellers and buyers can all sign up for an account on finaloffer.com. There is no cost for sellers, buyers, and real estate agents making offers for their clients. Agents representing sellers can subscribe for a monthly fee.

“Realtors play a monumental role when advising clients throughout the home sale and purchasing process,” says Vivian Risi, President and Broker of Record of Royal LePage Your Community Realty. “The expectations clients have of their agent have never been higher. Partnering with Final Offer empowers our agents with the latest technology and data to set a strategy with clients to achieve the outcome they desire.”

Final Offer is currently available in Ontario, with further regions to come. Final Offer’s mission is to bring transparency, fairness and efficiency to the Canadian real estate market by empowering all parties involved to make informed decisions during the complex real estate transaction process.

“Canadians are looking for transparency in their real estate negotiations and Final Offer delivers,” says Michelle Risi, Broker of Record of Royal LePage Connect Realty. “There is no better tool available that our agents can use to deliver clear information and real time offer alerts that buyers and sellers demand.”

About Final Offer:
Final Offer is the sole consumer-centric platform, driven by agents, dedicated to managing and negotiating offers for residential real estate. The platform champions transparency throughout the buying and selling process and includes real-time offer alerts, promoting fairness and equity for all parties involved. For more information, visit finaloffer.com.

SOURCE Final Offer

For further information: Media Contact: Samantha Jen, [email protected]

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Luxury Real Estate Prices Hit a Record High in the First Quarter

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Luxury home prices have been rising at a steady pace, and so far this year, values have hit a fresh record high. According to a new Q1 report by the real estate site Redfin, the cost of luxury residential properties—those estimated to be in the top 5 percent of their respective metro area—rose by 9 percent compared to last year and increased twice as fast as non-luxury homes. At the same time, high-end abodes sold for a median price of $1.22 million in the first quarter, a new benchmark from the $1.17 million set in the fourth quarter of 2023.

“People with the means to buy high-end homes are jumping in now because they feel confident prices will continue to rise,” explained David Palmer, a Redfin Premier agent in the Seattle metro area, where the median sale price for luxury homes is a whopping $2.7 million. “They’re ready to buy with more optimism and less apprehension. It’s a similar sentiment on the selling side: prices continue to increase for high-end homes, so homeowners feel it’s a good time to cash in on their equity.”

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To that point, the number of sales of luxury homes saw a 2.1 percent uptick from the year prior. In January, luxury sales began seeing consistent, year-over-year increases for the first time since August 2021. Another notable trend is that buyers are shelling out all-cash offers. Per the report, 46.8 percent of high-end residences purchased between January and March 2024 were paid for in cash, a staggering 44.1 percent gain from last year and the highest percentage in a decade.

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Luxury home prices in Providence, Rhode Island increased 16.2 percent in the first quarter of 2024.

Redfin found that Providence, Rhode Island, had the biggest jump in luxury prices in Q1, with values rising to $1.4 million, a steep 16.2 percent gain. Next was New Brunswick, New Jersey, where the median sale price bounced up 15 percent to $1.9 million. On the flip side, there were eight metros where luxury home prices dipped. Leading that pack was New York City, where prices dropped 9.9 percent to $3.25 million, followed by Austin, Texas, with a 6.9 percent decline.

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