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Record number of condos to flood Toronto market in 2023

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A crane stands between condo buildings in Toronto’s Liberty Village neighbourhood in July, 2022.CARLOS OSORIO/Reuters

A record number of new condo units will be completed in Toronto in 2023, just as skyrocketing mortgage rates make it harder for investors to close on their properties.

Nearly 32,000 condos will hit the city and surrounding suburbs, according to data from condo research firm Urbanation Inc. That surpasses the previous high in 2020, when 22,473 units were completed.

The raft of units are coming on the market after jumps in interest rates have ramped up borrowing costs and led to a drop in real estate sales and home prices.

Now, many buyers are having problems qualifying for a mortgage, with five-year interest rates topping 5 per cent. As well, lenders are appraising units at lower prices, meaning that the buyer has to come up with extra funds to make up the difference between the smaller mortgage for a unit, based on the lower appraised price, and what the buyer agreed to pay.

Preconstruction condos, which have not yet been built, are mostly bought by investors who plan to rent their units and/or profit from a resale. To secure a preconstruction condo, a 20-per-cent down payment is required. After the condo has been built, the buyer is required to pay the remaining 80 per cent.

“Investors could be looking to exit before they have to close on the unit and they may face difficulties qualifying for a mortgage given what’s happening with interest rates,” Urbanation president Shaun Hildebrand said.

This has led to an uptick in buyers trying to get out of their newly built condos by selling the right to buy their new unit, also known as an assignment sale.

“A lot of people are assigning because they can’t qualify for a mortgage nowadays,” said Brigitte Obregon, a broker with Re/Max Ultimate Realty who has sold preconstruction condos since 2009.

Higher mortgage payments have also made it less profitable for investors to own condos.

The average condo ownership cost in Toronto was $3,506 a month as of the third quarter of 2022, according to Urbanation. In comparison, the average monthly rent in the region was $2,733, which left the condo owner paying an average of $773 out of pocket every month. That is up from an average shortfall of $235 a month in the third quarter of 2021, $196 in 2020 and $17 in 2019, according to Urbanation.

Preconstruction condo sales in Toronto had been on the rise for years, driven by demand from investors and developers. But since home prices started to fall in 2022, it has become somewhat cheaper to buy an already built condo on the resale market.

The average rate for a preconstruction condo was $1,427 a square foot as of the third quarter of 2022, according to Urbanation. In comparison, the average price for a condo on the resale market was $891 a square foot.

“People are saying ‘Okay, now it seems like I can get the better deals on the resale market, or the preconstruction assignment market,’” said Vicky Huang, chief executive of Bay Street Group, a real estate brokerage that works with Chinese buyers in the resale and preconstruction housing market.

The typical price of a home across Canada is down 10 per cent from peak prices in February, 2022. In the preconstruction market, investors are not seeing the value of their properties grow as quickly as it has in the past. That is expected to further contribute to the slowdown in preconstruction sales in 2023.

Activity had already dropped significantly, and by the third quarter of 2022, preconstruction sales hit their lowest level since the 2008-09 global financial crisis. Dozens of projects had no sales during the quarter, according to Urbanation.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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