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Economy

Middle East round-up: Egypt economy pounded

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Egypt has to make hard economic choices, the death toll keeps rising in the occupied West Bank, and the execution of an Iranian official threatens further isolation. Here’s this week’s round-up, written by Danylo Hawaleshka.

The Egyptian pound has certainly seen better days. In less than a year, the currency has lost almost half its value against the dollar. But that’s mainly been a result of meeting the stipulations of a loan issued by the International Monetary Fund to bail out the Egyptian economy to the tune of $3bn. The IMF generally pushes for less economic intervention by government, and in this instance that means allowing the Egyptian pound to fluctuate according to market forces.

At the same time, Egypt has also agreed to privatise state-owned businesses, including ones owned and operated by the military, as well as slow down public investment in national projects like the building of the New Administrative Capital, and major weapon purchases from Germany and Italy. The day after the IMF announcement, the pound’s value against the dollar dropped 10 percent.

Then there’s inflation, which is running at more than 20 percent. Grocery stores are emptying out. You can’t find many imported products, stores are running out of frozen chicken, and staples such as eggs and cooking oil have doubled in price.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi blames the war in Ukraine. In the weeks after the Russian invasion, foreign investors couldn’t sell their Egyptian treasury bills fast enough, resulting in a $20bn outflow. But many analysts also blame el-Sisi for keeping the value of the Egyptian pound artificially high for years. As one analyst put it, “They cooked the numbers way too long.”

Turmoil in the Occupied Territories

The number of Palestinians killed last year shot up dramatically, as Israel ramped up its raids in the occupied West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem, killing more than 170 people. But so far this year has already been worse, with one Palestinian killed almost every day.

On Saturday, Israeli soldiers shot dead two Palestinian men during a raid in the West Bank. The Palestinian Ministry of Health said Ezzedine Bassem Hamamreh, 24, and Amjad Adnan Khaliliyeh, 23, were killed during an assault on the village of Jaba, south of Jenin. Palestinian Islamic Jihad said the two men were members of the group, and died while trying to intervene against the “occupation forces, which were carrying out a cowardly assassination operation”. The next day, 45-year-old Ahmed Kahla became the 13th Palestinian to be killed by Israeli forces in 15 days when he was shot near the West Bank city of Ramallah. According to the Palestinian news agency WAFA, witnesses said Kahla was shot after a scuffle with Israeli soldiers at a checkpoint. Then, on Monday, the Israeli army shot 14-year-old Omar Khaled Lutfi Khmour in the head during a raid in southern West Bank. A day later, Hamdi Abu Dayyeh, 40, was killed by Israeli fire in Halhul, a town on the outskirts of Hebron. Palestinian media outlets reported that Abu Dayyeh was shot dead while carrying out an armed attack against Israeli forces at a checkpoint.

Against that violent backdrop, the new Israeli government, said to be the most right-wing in Israel’s history, has been getting to work on implementing its far-right agenda. Led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the nationalist-religious government wants to weaken the Supreme Court and annex the West Bank. Justice Minister Yariv Levin plans to increase government control over the judicial system, and limit the Supreme Court’s ability to strike down laws.

Over the weekend, Israeli media, citing police, estimated that 80,000 protesters marched in Tel Aviv in opposition to the government’s plans. Demonstrators called Netayahu the “crime minister” with one person accusing him of “destroying Israeli democracy”. But columnist Yara Hawari calls that nothing new, seeing as “there has been no Israeli prime minister that hasn’t been a criminal with hands stained with the blood of Palestinians, and there has been no Israeli government that has actually upheld democracy.”

Israel protest
Israelis protest against Benjamin Netanyahu’s new right-wing coalition and its proposed plan to reduce the powers of the Supreme Court [Ronen Zvulun/Reuters]

Iran Hangs Former Deputy Minister

ran has executed a former deputy defence minister, Alireza Akbari, a British-Iranian dual national who was convicted of spying for the UK. Akbari was hanged on Saturday for “harming the country’s internal and external security by passing on intelligence”, a charge his family denies. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called it a “callous and cowardly act carried out by a barbaric regime”, and it’s only likely that the execution will further isolate the Iranian government after months of protests.

In Brief

Jordan summons Israeli ambassador after police obstruct envoy’s Al-Aqsa visit – UN envoy for Yemen says chances for renewed truce improving – Police in Lebanon question people related to 2020 explosion victims after protest turned ugly – Iraqi PM backs continued US military training in fight against ISIL – Qatari endurance driver wins 5th Dakar Rally title – Turkey sets deadline to ratify Sweden, Finland membership in NATO – Erdogan effigy incident in Sweden prompts Turkish investigation – Iran welcomes Syria-Turkey talks brokered by Russia – Tunisian anti-government protesters mark 12th anniversary of Arab Spring – Iran’s foreign minister expresses hope of restoring ties with Saudi Arabia – CIA chief makes rare visit to Libya after Lockerbie suspect handed over – Macron says France will not seek forgiveness from Algeria over colonialism

And Now for Something Different

Hassan al-Kontor once spent seven months stranded in a Malaysian airport, unable to leave. His ordeal was another example of the barriers faced by Syrian refugees trying to reach a safe haven. And he may have been forgotten in the airport if he hadn’t started uploading videos of his life, struggling to get by, with no one willing to help him out. That was until Canada stepped in, and allowed him to travel there in November 2018. Last week, he finally received citizenship in a place he can now call home.

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Quote of the Week

“Don’t forget the last colony of Africa, Western Sahara. Let us fight to free Western Sahara from oppression.” — Mandla Mandela at the opening ceremony of the African Nations Championship in Algeria, eliciting an angry response from Morocco, which had already pulled out of the tournament after Algeria refused to give the team clearance to fly directly from Morocco.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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