adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

News

Here’s how interest rates could affect Canada’s housing market in 2023

Published

 on

Lower interest rates in 2023 could revitalize Canada’s housing market before the end of the year, according to some economists, even as the central bank warns the rate cut conversation is premature.

A report from Desjardins Economics released Thursday expects home sales in Canada to “reach a low in the second half of 2023 before lifting off again.”

Some provinces such as Ontario and British Columbia should see a return to higher prices next year as a result, the report argues, putting a “brake” on any improved housing affordability.

The revised market outlook points to a possible drop in the Bank of Canada’s benchmark interest rate as driving the housing sector’s resurgence, as well as strong demand from immigration and higher purchasing power from robust household savings and a tight labour market.

The Bank of Canada signalled last month it would pause further changes to its policy rate while it lets its aggressive rate hikes from the past year take effect.

The central bank’s own surveys released earlier this week show some market watchers are expecting rate cuts before the end of the year.

Governor Tiff Macklem pushed back on the idea after a speech in Quebec City on Tuesday, telling journalists: “It’s really far too early to be thinking about cutting rates.”

“We are pausing interest rate hikes to assess whether we’ve raised interest rates enough to get inflation all the way back to target,” he said Tuesday. “The question is really whether we’ve done enough. It’s not about whether we’re considering cutting interest rates.”

But Macklem also conceded that the pause in rate hikes might have a stimulating effect on the sector, as buyers and sellers who have been on the sidelines waiting for the peak of rates seize the temporary sense of clarity.

“The fact that we’ve paused may bring people back into the market. These are things we’re going to have to watch,” he said.

Click to play video: 'Housing market was ‘unsustainably hot’ during pandemic, but is now a ‘vulnerability’: Macklem'

Housing market was ‘unsustainably hot’ during pandemic, but is now a ‘vulnerability’: Macklem

Randall Bartlett, Desjardins’ senior director of Canadian economics and one of the report’s authors, tells Global News that the expected pause in rate hikes is already driving down some mortgage rates, opening the door for some prospective buyers.

When markets anticipate future cuts, that drives down longer-term bond yields, he explained in an email, which feeds into fixed-rate mortgage products.

Desjardins expects five-year fixed-rate mortgages on offer to continue to drop as the Bank of Canada maintains its key rate, with variable-rate products following suit if and when cuts eventually begin.

“Falling borrowing costs should be a major driver of the (housing market) rebound,” the Desjardins report says.

How much further does the housing correction have to go?

The Desjardins report notes the housing correction has already been pronounced: existing home sales are down 38 per cent from the peak roughly a year ago, with the average sale price down 20 per cent from the market’s latest highs.

There’s still further to go, the report’s authors argue, as high interest rates will “continue to weigh on housing market activity.”

“As such, there is likely more pain ahead for Canadians, including a recession in 2023,” the report states.

READ MORE: What is a recession? Here’s how a hit to Canada’s economy might impact you

For the Bank of Canada’s part, it said in a revised outlook last month that the housing market is expected to continue cooling through to mid-2023 before rebounding slightly.

Click to play video: 'Drop in home sales expected this year'

Royal Bank of Canada’s assistant chief economist Robert Hogue, meanwhile, said in a note Tuesday that Canada’s housing correction appears to be “broadly easing.”

He said he expects the housing market to bottom out around the spring or summer, with the timing varying from market to market.

“The recovery that will follow, however, is poised to be very gradual at first,” he wrote. “We expect the massive increase in interest rates will continue to hold back activity and compress purchasing budgets for some time.”

What could housing look like across Canada this year?

The Desjardins report also expects the housing correction and subsequent rebound will vary by province.

The report puts Ontario and B.C. in similar boats, classified as the “most vulnerable” to further corrections in their housing markets in 2023.

Ontario, for instance, is expected to finish 2023 with home prices down 25 per cent from their peak, with housing activity returning to pre-pandemic levels by the end of next year.

But the two provinces’ reputations as attractive hubs for immigration will “underpin” the recovery for their respective sectors, the report argues.

Quebec is meanwhile expected to see a further 20 per cent decline in home sales before hitting a 10-year low, the report projects, before starting a gradual climb back up in 2024.

While Desjardins’ economists remark that the Maritime housing markets have shown some resiliency in the correction with little price decline through 2022, there might be early signs of a downturn heading as the pandemic-related migration boom starts to wane.

Strong commodity activity and prices are expected to boost economic output in the Prairie provinces, per the report, and the housing market should get a lift accordingly.

The relative affordability of Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg will make each city an attractive destination for immigration as well, Desjardins’ economists argue.

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

News

STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

Published

 on

 

NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

___

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Source link

Continue Reading

News

World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

Published

 on

 

WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

___

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

News

Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

Published

 on

 

Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending