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Economy

Yellen warns of U.S. ‘economic chaos’ if debt limit not raised

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday that there are “no good options” for the United States to avoid an economic “calamity” if Congress fails to raise the nation’s borrowing limit of $31.381 trillion in the coming weeks. She did not rule out President Joe Biden bypassing lawmakers and acting on his own to try to avert a first-ever federal default.

Her comments added even more urgency to a high-stakes meeting Tuesday between Biden and congressional leaders from both parties.

Democrats and Republicans are at loggerheads over whether the debt limit should even be the subject of negotiation. GOP lawmakers, led by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California, are demanding spending cuts in return for raising the borrowing limit, while Biden has said the threat of default shouldn’t be used as leverage in budget talks.

Yellen, interviewed on ABC’s “This Week,” painted a dire picture of what might happen if the borrowing limit is not increased before the Treasury Department runs out of what it calls “extraordinary measures” to operate under the current cap. That time, she said, is expected to come in early June, perhaps as soon as June 1.

“Whether it’s defaulting on interest payments that are due on the debt or payments for Social Security recipients or to Medicare providers, we would simply not have enough cash to meet all of our obligations,” she said. “And it’s widely agreed that financial and economic chaos would ensue.”

An increase in the debt limit would not authorize new federal spending. It would only allow borrowing to pay for what Congress has already approved.

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Biden’s White House meeting with McCarthy, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., will be the first substantive talks between Biden and McCarthy in months.

House Republicans on April 26 passed a bill that would raise the debt limit but impose significant federal spending cuts. But those cuts are unlikely to win the support of all Republicans in the Democratic-controlled Senate, and Biden has said he will only negotiate about government spending once Congress takes the risk of default off the table.

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who left the Democratic Party in December, encouraged Biden and McCarthy to meet each other half way.

“There’s not going to be just a simple clean debt limit — the votes don’t exist for that,” she told CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “So the sooner these two guys get in the room and listen to what the other one needs, the more likely they are to solve this challenge and protect the full faith and credit of the United States of America.”

Yellen was asked on ABC whether Biden could bypass Congress by citing the Constitution’s 14th Amendment that the “validity” of U.S. debt “shall not be questioned.” Yellen did not answer definitively, but said it should not be considered a valid solution.

“We should not get to the point where we need to consider whether the president can go on issuing debt. This would be a constitutional crisis,” she said.

“What to do if Congress fails to meet its responsibility? There are simply no good options,” she added.

Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., agreed about the risks of invoking the 14th Amendment, He told ABC that the Constitution is “very clear that spending — all those details around spending and money actually has to come through Congress.”

He criticized Biden for not being willing to negotiate on spending cuts, arguing the debt limit exists to force a broader conversation on government outlays. “It’s about not just debt that’s incurred,” the senator said. “But it’s also raising the limit of what we can continue to be able to add on this.”

The 14th Amendment question was studied by Obama administration lawyers during the 2011 debt limit showdown, which informed Biden’s refusal to negotiate now with Republicans on raising the debt limit. At the time, Justice Department lawyers said they did not believe the president had the unilateral power to issue new debt.

Biden, in an interview with MSNBC on Friday, was asked about the 14th Amendment proposal, saying, “I’ve not gotten there yet.”

Republican Rep. Mike Turner of Ohio, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, and the committee’s top Democrat, Connecticut Rep. Jim Himes, told CNN’s “State of the Union” that the debt limit debate posed a national security threat.

“The Russians and the Chinese would seek to exploit it,” Himes said. “The United States has never really come close defaulting on its debt before. So it’s hard for us to imagine what that might look like.”

Turner argued that Biden would bear the brunt of the responsibility. “I think if the president fails to negotiate with Congress and has continued out-of-control spending that threatens our economy, that it is a national security threat,” he said.

 

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

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